Last week I went 2/3 and won the bigger odds bet I made backing Chelsea to win. I also felt pretty smart seeing Nottingham Forest play Manchester United tough and maybe even feel a bit unfortunate (not that it mattered to my bet) to not win that one.

That puts me exactly at 50% for my bets this year and up +1.8 units (10% ROI).

This was a tough week where it doesn’t seem like the odds are diverging much from how I see the matches. Somehow, I still found three bets to make.

As always, the odds here are from William Hill Nevada and are the odds available as I am writing this post. This is not sponsored, I don’t have any affiliate deal, nor do I really endorse them; it is just the most convenient option for me.

By default, I don’t send this out to everyone so if you do want to get these in your email, you can update your settings for the individual newsletters that we send out: Learn more here.

Match Odds

Tottenham vs Manchester Utd

Tottenham: Scott - 36.9%, Betting - 34.8%, Opta - 47.5%

Draw: Scott - 25.3%, Betting - 27.6%, Opta - 26.1%

Manchester Utd: Scott - 37.7%, Betting - 37.6%, Opta - 26.4%

I know Spurs won big on the midweek but we saw what they did against Chelsea right?

Just 3 total shots and just 1 shot in the second half chasing the game. At home.

Spurs are the team that has the most air in their numbers so far this season, on the underlying numbers they have not made meaningful strides here since last season. I am still a bit worried about Manchester United trying to break them down and not leaving themselves open but it’s Spurs.

I am going to be a bit bold here and take Manchester United to win outright.

Manchester United to win.

West Ham vs Burnley

West Ham: Scott - 43.3%, Betting - 48.5%, Opta - 47.9%

Draw: Scott - 29.7%, Betting - 27.8%, Opta - 26.0%

Burnley: Scott - 27.0%, Betting - 23.7%, Opta - 26.1%

No way will I be doing anything with these two bad teams. This should probably be closer to a 40-30-30 type in my mind but I don’t know if I truly believe that enough to back Burnley away.

No bets.

Everton vs Fulham

Everton: Scott - 37.8%, Betting - 42.8%, Opta - 45.8%

Draw: Scott - 30.7%, Betting - 29.4%, Opta - 26.8%

Fulham: Scott - 31.5%, Betting - 27.7%, Opta - 27.4%

I don’t believe in Fulham at all. I know they won last week but I still don’t know that they are actually more than just meh team that is good enough to survive.

These two teams are very evenly matched and that really make it feel like an anything can happen game and the odds are fairly reflective of that but maybe slightly too much in Everton’s favor here.

Because I want to have some action every week, I am going to trust the model here that the Fulahm +0.5 is actually a +EV move. They are offering it at 1.71 and that is below what my model thinks should be.

Fulahm +0.5

Sunderland vs Arsenal

Sunderland: Scott - 10.9%, Betting - 11.1%, Opta - 13.5%

Draw: Scott - 20.9%, Betting - 21.5%, Opta - 16.7%

Arsenal: Scott - 68.2%, Betting - 67.4%, Opta - 69.8%

I went deep on this match already, so I don’t need to do too much more here.

If Arsenal were a bit healthier… I’d really like to bet on them but I unfortunately am a bit scared that Sunderland will be able to clog things up just enough and threaten the draw that the big odds of an Arsenal win aren’t worth it.

No bets.

Chelsea vs Wolves

Chelsea: Scott - 61.1%, Betting - 69.3%, Opta - 73.2%

Draw: Scott - 22.6%, Betting - 19.6%, Opta - 15.5%

Wolves: Scott - 16.3%, Betting - 11.1%, Opta - 11.3%

I backed Wolves last week and it turned out very poorly. My model would say back them again but that seems frankly dumb.

I think that there is a good chance that this is a team where the bottom falls out for them.

That being said, I don’t know if I trust Chelsea enough here to back them. They curb stomped Spurs but then went and looked like crap in the Champions League. They are still a mess without Palmer.

No bet here.

Crystal Palace vs Brighton

Crystal Palace: Scott - 45.0%, Betting - 41.9%, Opta - 48.7%

Draw: Scott - 25.0%, Betting - 27.7%, Opta - 25.7%

Brighton: Scott - 30.0%, Betting - 30.4%, Opta - 25.6%

This is another match where the betting odds are seeing things very similar to me. My model would have the slightest of leans towards Crystal Palace but coming off of a Europa League Thursday match, I don’t think I have the guts to back a tiny edge.

No bets.

Nott’ham Forest vs Leeds United

Nott’ham Forest: Scott - 44.0%, Betting - 41.9%, Opta - 50.9%

Draw: Scott - 29.5%, Betting - 29.5%, Opta - 24.9%

Leeds United: Scott - 26.5%, Betting - 28.6%, Opta - 24.2%

I think that this is still a stay away match up.

Aston Villa vs Bournemouth

Aston Villa: Scott - 44.9%, Betting - 41.0%, Opta - 49.9%

Draw: Scott - 25.8%, Betting - 28.6%, Opta - 25.3%

Bournemouth: Scott - 29.3%, Betting - 30.4%, Opta - 24.8%

This is another close one and an area where my model’s skepticism of Bournemouth would push me to go against them.

This isn’t a strong lean, but my model does see value to go with Aston Villa outright to win.

I just can’t help but find myself so unconvinced by Aston Villa this season. They have just been a very meh team. On this season only they are the 16th best team in the League, if we strip out and only look at xG they are closer to relegation level.

They don’t even have the same big home/road splits where you could feel a bit more confident about them at Villa Park.

No bets.

Brentford vs Newcastle Utd

Brentford: Scott - 36.8%, Betting - 33.7%, Opta - 37.1%

Draw: Scott - 26.0%, Betting - 27.8%, Opta - 26.3%

Newcastle Utd: Scott - 37.2%, Betting - 38.5%, Opta - 36.6%

Newcastle have been a team that the numbers have liked this season; they have just been one of the bigger underperformers on the actual numbers compared to expected.

I am just not sold on them still and I have them slipping down my rankings here after what has just been some rather meh performances.

They won in the Champions League, but I am still not sure it was all that impressive.

After some early burns from Brentford, I am ready to go back to them and get hurt again. The +0.5 looks like a very positive EV bet at 1.63 and I am going to go with it,

Brentford +0.5

Manchester City vs Liverpool

Manchester City: Scott - 51.7%, Betting - 49.2%, Opta - 45.4%

Draw: Scott - 20.2%, Betting - 24.7%, Opta - 26.9%

Liverpool: Scott - 28.1%, Betting - 26.1%, Opta - 27.7%

This is a tough one because there are no real plus expected value plays here. The odds from the bookmakers are basically in line with what I have, especially because they get to cheat and don’t have to have their numbers add up to 100%.

My gut would say go with City here but I don’t have a strong enough feeling to back that. I’d be happy as an Arsenal fan if they drew and neither team got 3 points and the feeling of a big win.

Here are my bets for Round 1:

Manchester United to win.

Fulahm +0.5

Brentford +0.5

I have some time this week so I am coming back to it.

When we last updated, I had done bets through round 5 of the Premier League and the two wins I got there brought me ever so slightly positive on the season (I have wagered 14.5 units and have a +3.6% ROI)

We are also getting into a part of the season where there are enough matches played to start looking at how the model is performing compared to the actual results.

I am very pleased with how this is performing overall so far this season and I continue to be in the situation where I probably could spend more time trying to get a bit more accurate but the time spent working on that probably isn’t worth it given I really just want these to be in the overall ballpark for the match odds.

I will post these updates periodically (or as requested) to see how they go as the season progresses.

As always, the odds here are from William Hill Nevada and are the odds available as I am writing this post. This is not sponsored, I don’t have any affiliate deal, nor do I really endorse them; it is just the most convenient option for me.

By default, I don’t send this out to everyone so if you do want to get these in your email, you can update your settings for the individual newsletters that we send out: Learn more here.

Match Odds

One thing you might notice here is that the graphics have been updated, for the longest time I had been using stuff that I had made years ago in excel (where the simulation model still lives lol, but again not worth the time to re-write it) and I had enough of looking at them.

Hopefully you like the changes, it matches the overall look and feel of the other graphics I make and that makes me not get twitchy and obsessive.

Nott’ham Forest vs Manchester Utd

Nott’ham Forest: Scott - 34.0%, Betting - 28.7%, Opta - 38.1%

Draw: Scott - 26.6%, Betting - 26.3%, Opta - 26.5%

Manchester Utd: Scott - 39.4%, Betting - 45.1%, Opta - 35.4%

Manchester United come into this match as one of the in-form teams, and Forest come into this as one of the least in-form teams. When you get these types of matches, it is often times a chance to do a zag against the consensus.

That is what my model is suggesting here, with it giving a pretty strong take Forest pick here.

I have to say, I can see why that might be a good thing to back here. Manchester United have been good creating volume chances, but they don’t have a midfield that has been able to stop teams.

Here they will face the situation where they will face a tough midblock and counter team, and I think that has been the type of team that has caused them the most issues this season.

Nottingham Forest at +0.5 is 1.74 (implied 57%) and I have the win draw odds at 61% making this a plus EV bet and I am going to go with it.

Nottingham Forest +0.5

Crystal Palace vs Brentford

Crystal Palace: Scott - 44.6%, Betting - 48.3%, Opta - 50.3%

Draw: Scott - 26.0%, Betting - 26.9%, Opta - 25.1%

Brentford: Scott - 29.4%, Betting - 24.8%, Opta - 24.6%

My model would say to take Brentford here but I still have some scars from betting on Brentford early in the season that makes me not want to go with them yet. I also have been very impressed with Crystal Palace and I think that my model being a bit slow to adjust to the current season would make this a potentially bad decision.

No bet.

Burnley vs Arsenal

Burnley: Scott - 10.2%, Betting - 7.2%, Opta - 13.4%

Draw: Scott - 18.4%, Betting - 18.0%, Opta - 16.6%

Arsenal: Scott - 71.4%, Betting - 74.8%, Opta - 70.0%

Arsenal are rolling and the odds really reflect this with Arsenal made the biggest favorites of the weekend.

My model would say that it would be worth it to take the flyer on the unlikely Burnley win, but I am not doing that right now.

No bets.

Fulham vs Wolves

Fulham: Scott - 39.5%, Betting - 51.7%, Opta - 54.7%

Draw: Scott - 30.8%, Betting - 27.8%, Opta - 23.3%

Wolves: Scott - 29.7%, Betting - 20.5%, Opta - 22.0%

On the current season, Fulham have not been significantly better than Wolves. They come into the season where they look like they should be, but it has not shown up in the early performances.

In fact, looking at the weighted team ratings from just this season, Wolves are ever so slightly ahead.

I am not bold enough to back the win here for Wolves, but I do like the implied 51% odds that this is a Wolves win or draw (my model puts it just under 61%). This is the biggest divergence from my model and the betting odds of the weekend and if I believe in my model at all, I have to back it here.

Wolves +0.5

Brighton vs Leeds United

Brighton: Scott - 49.0%, Betting - 50.5%, Opta - 66.3%

Draw: Scott - 27.0%, Betting - 27.0%, Opta - 18.4%

Leeds United: Scott - 24.1%, Betting - 22.5%, Opta - 15.3%

I think that this is pretty fairly priced, and I don’t really see anything here that would say bet either way. I am a bit surprised how big of favorites Opta have Brighton here, they would be very strongly backing the home team.

Tottenham vs Chelsea

Tottenham: Scott - 34.7%, Betting - 35.5%, Opta - 33.9%

Draw: Scott - 24.9%, Betting - 26.9%, Opta - 25.7%

Chelsea: Scott - 40.4%, Betting - 37.6%, Opta - 40.4%

This is a match that I hope to go meet up with some other locals and watch together in real life after I get my Arsenal analysis up.

It would be fun to have a bit of an extra rooting interest here.

My model likes the away team in this derby, and I think I agree with it but I am not super strong with this opinion.

Chelsea remain a tough team to try and get a feel for how good they actually are. They lost and played pretty poorly last weekend against Sunderland. They have a big win against West Ham that gives their numbers a boost. Looking at how they have played with the game close and they are very much in the group where things are very meh.

The positive here for this match, is that Spurs have been even more meh. I guess you could talk yourselves into that their set up makes them tough against teams that are better than them, but they just haven’t really been good at all so being a bit better against a team that is better than you isn’t all that comforting.

It is not a massive edge, but the model does say go with Chelsea to win. I am not super confident on this one, but I am going to back that.

Chelsea to win.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa

Liverpool: Scott - 59.8%, Betting - 57.9%, Opta - 56.9%

Draw: Scott - 21.1%, Betting - 22.5%, Opta - 22.3%

Aston Villa: Scott - 19.1%, Betting - 19.7%, Opta - 20.8%

I am very interested in this match; it is again a situation of teams in the opposite directions for form.

Aston Villa started the season off in the gutter but have bounced back to win 4 in a row in the Premier League and have bounced back up the table. Liverpool did the opposite starting off on fire but have lost four in a row in the Premier League. This has left them both on 15 points and with Liverpool just ahead with a +2 goal difference compared to a +1 for Aston Villa.

Looking at how the team’s have played over the last four, the style of the matches is significantly different (the Villa matches haven’t featured many chances, and the Liverpool matches are nothing but chances) but it’s a funny one that comes out with Aston Villa +0.1 on xG difference and Liverpool at +0.3 on xG difference

The pricing on Liverpool here is just close enough to where I think the odds should be that I don’t think that this is a +EV bet but I do think that it is one where being cold and calculating I would be leaning.

No bet.

West Ham vs Newcastle Utd

West Ham: Scott - 21.2%, Betting - 17.9%, Opta - 25.3%

Draw: Scott - 25.4%, Betting - 23.5%, Opta - 23.2%

Newcastle Utd: Scott - 53.5%, Betting - 58.5%, Opta - 51.5%

My model would say back West Ham here, but man are they a bad team and that sounds like a form of torture that should be outlawed.

William Hill is only giving me a +0.5 on West Ham on the spread bets and I don’t want to try and see if they can hold on for a draw, if it had been +1 or more I would have looked harder at this.

No bet.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Manchester City: Scott - 65.0%, Betting - 62.9%, Opta - 61.5%

Draw: Scott - 18.7%, Betting - 21.4%, Opta - 20.3%

Bournemouth: Scott - 16.4%, Betting - 15.7%, Opta - 18.2%

It’s a short slate of matches Sunday and this will be far the more interesting of the two and the one that will have my attention.

I don’t see any bets here that I think make sense with the odds very much in line with the model and my own feel for the match.

That being said, I think that Bournemouth potentially are the type of team that can and maybe will cause Manchester City problems. They can disrupt the midfield and attack at speed, that can mean that they have some goals in them. Manchester City have Haaland and that basically means they start with a goal. It should be a fun one, and I hope to learn a bit more about how good Manchester City are outside of Haaland here.

No bets.

Sunderland vs Everton

Sunderland: Scott - 28.2%, Betting - 33.7%, Opta - 32.2%

Draw: Scott - 31.2%, Betting - 31.4%, Opta - 25.4%

Everton: Scott - 40.6%, Betting - 34.9%, Opta - 42.4%

No team in the Premier League is over performing their expected points by a larger margin than Sunderland.

They have five wins this season and they have a combined xG difference in those matches of just +0.4.

They have two draws and in those matches it has been a combined xG difference of -1.0.

I want to dig into this a bit more next week ahead of them playing against Arsenal but I have to admit right now that I am not a believer in what they are doing as being something that we should expect to continue.

All that being said, I am perhaps too chicken to bet on this right now given that Sunderland actually look pretty good at home and Everton have not been good away. It is the Monday match and I will be watching to get a good view of them.

No bet.

Here are my bets for Round 10:

Nottingham Forest +0.5

Wolves +0.5

Chelsea to win

My picks for round 4 split going 1/2, moving to 4/10 for the season overall.

I won my Wolves +1.5 bet but that was a nervy watch given that Wolves were quite bad. They did just enough to limit Newcastle from finding their second goal and that was crucial because they didn’t seem to have much threat going the other way.

I lost my Liverpool -1.5 bet, and it happened in the worst way as an Arsenal fan. If Liverpool had dropped the points, like it looked going into stoppage time I would have ben able to better stomach it compared to a late goal that gave them the win but not by the margin that I needed. It was a tough one too because this was a match where Liverpool probably did create enough to score 2 goals but just didn’t have it happen here.

Gambling sucks sometimes.

On to the next slate of matches, I guess.

The odds here are from William Hill Nevada and are the odds available as I am writing this post. There is no sponsorship or anything here, it is just the most convenient option, and I could probably do a bit better if shopped the lines a bit more and maybe some future date I will look at that.

By default, I don’t send this out to everyone so if you do want to get these in your email, you can update your settings for the individual newsletters that we send out: Learn more here.

Match Odds

Liverpool vs Everton

Liverpool: Scott - 68.4%, Betting - 66.0%, Opta - 71.7%

Draw: Scott - 18.6%, Betting - 20.5%, Opta - 16.2%

Everton: Scott - 12.9%, Betting - 13.5%, Opta - 12.1%

This is a close one and my gut is trying to tell me to trust that the Liverpool attack is coming together and getting better. The Burnley and Atleti matches were positive outings for them and they just had a bit of that finishing luck dry up/go against them on what could have been bigger wins.

I have Liverpool +1.5 priced at 44.8% in my model, the betting odds have it at 45.4% it is close but not quite at the +EV level here and I am going to stay disciplined here trusting things over doing too much overriding.

Also, I don’t want to open up that double heartbreak chance again (not that it is really in my thought process here).

Brighton vs Tottenham

Brighton: Scott - 40.9%, Betting - 40.9%, Opta - 47.4%

Draw: Scott - 26.3%, Betting - 27.7%, Opta - 26.2%

Tottenham: Scott - 32.8%, Betting - 31.4%, Opta - 26.4%

This is an interesting line and it is one where I am a bit interested in Spurs. It is almost a plus EV play to take Spurs +0.5 here and if I was struggling to find picks I might have been tempted on this one but there is enough else going on that I don’t want to stretch for it.

Wolves vs Leeds United

Wolves: Scott - 41.2%, Betting - 34.8%, Opta - 48.7%

Draw: Scott - 29.4%, Betting - 30.3%, Opta - 25.7%

Leeds United: Scott - 29.5%, Betting - 34.8%, Opta - 25.6%

Don’t trust these teams yet, especially Leeds away right now.

West Ham vs Crystal Palace

West Ham: Scott - 28.5%, Betting - 31.4%, Opta - 27.2%

Draw: Scott - 27.1%, Betting - 28.5%, Opta - 23.9%

Crystal Palace: Scott - 44.5%, Betting - 40.1%, Opta - 48.9%

West Ham are bad, I think that they could be in quit on their manager territory and I don’t think that it is fully priced in just how far away they are from their true level.

Crystal Palace have been pretty good this year and I feel comfortable that they are competent enough to find a way to win here.

Crystal Palace +0.5

Burnley vs Nott'ham Forest

Burnley: Scott - 26.8%, Betting - 28.6%, Opta - 32.2%

Draw: Scott - 29.1%, Betting - 28.6%, Opta - 24.4%

Nott'ham Forest: Scott - 44.1%, Betting - 42.9%, Opta - 42.4%

No way I am taking either of these teams right now.

Manchester Utd vs Chelsea

Manchester Utd: Scott - 39.0%, Betting - 34.8%, Opta - 28.7%

Draw: Scott - 24.7%, Betting - 26.1%, Opta - 24.5%

Chelsea: Scott - 36.2%, Betting - 39.1%, Opta - 46.8%

My model likes this as a home underdog bet, and I hate to say it but I kind of agree here. I don’t know that I truly believe that United would be ever so slightly to win over Chelsea but Chelsea had an away trip to Munich and follow that with an away League match and that is the situation with the most penalty after a Champions League match, this is also a Wednesday to Saturday turnaround.

United are 14th in the table but they have not been the 14th best team this season and they are better than their -3 goal difference for sure here.

Maybe I am talking myself into this because I just really don’t believe in Chelsea and I want to manifest this one into existence. I feel kind of yucky but I am going to do it.

Manchester United +0.5

Fulham vs Brentford

Fulham: Scott - 37.9%, Betting - 47.0%, Opta - 43.0%

Draw: Scott - 30.2%, Betting - 27.6%, Opta - 26.8%

Brentford: Scott - 31.9%, Betting - 25.4%, Opta - 30.2%

I have been burnt already backing Brentford but are they really that bad? They are not a good team but are they really that much worse than Fulham?

Fulham haven’t done much to score goals or create threat and I kind of see this one as a high probability for a draw with that being mostly fine from both teams. I like the odds of a draw plus the chance that Brentford do actually win here.

Brentford +0.5

Bournemouth vs Newcastle Utd

Bournemouth: Scott - 35.6%, Betting - 41.1%, Opta - 38.7%

Draw: Scott - 28.2%, Betting - 26.3%, Opta - 26.5%

Newcastle Utd: Scott - 36.2%, Betting - 32.6%, Opta - 34.8%

My model would say back Newcastle here, on either the win or by taking the +0.5 here as both plus EV plays. It is also a tough one as this is the first match after a Champions League match and it was a big one where they expended a lot energy vs Barcelona.

They are also dealing without Jacob Ramsey, Yone Wissa to injury and Anthony Gordon to suspension.

That is just enough that I am going to stay away here.

Sunderland vs Aston Villa

Sunderland: Scott - 25.4%, Betting - 26.9%, Opta - 22.5%

Draw: Scott - 30.6%, Betting - 29.4%, Opta - 22.2%

Aston Villa: Scott - 44.0%, Betting - 43.7%, Opta - 55.3%

On the one hand you have Sunderland who have been one of the more fortunate teams this early season and trying to hit that hard on the opposite side is a good opportunity. On the other hand, you have an Unai Emery team that has been dreadful, scoring 0 goals all season.

They are a bit unfortunate to have scored 0 goals, but they are not unfortunate to only have 2 points right now.

If I could have gotten a bit more on the Aston Villa side I could have talked myself towards it but it just doesn’t have enough juice on it.

Arsenal vs Manchester City

Arsenal: Scott - 44.6%, Betting - 49.4%, Opta - 52.2%

Draw: Scott - 23.0%, Betting - 27.0%, Opta - 24.4%

Manchester City: Scott - 32.4%, Betting - 23.6%, Opta - 23.4%

This is a tough one where I am torn on trying to make money doing this or if I want to give myself a bit of that security blanket of emotional support and not wanting to bet against the team I support even if that is potentially where things point towards.

The questions here is how healthy Arsenal will be here? The biggest calls will be Saka and Odegaard and it wasn’t the greatest update from Mikel here (not that I expected much in the way of news anyway).

• Saka is a maybe for this match, he hasn’t trained according to Arteta and it will depend on how things look tomorrow for him. Noni Madueke has filled in well but he isn’t Saka.

• It is similar with Odegaard, this one I think that there is more chance, and he will make a pretty big difference because pressing and controlling the midfield will be important and he’s the best overall combo of that for Arsenal.

City have their own injuries but the biggest one is that it looks like Rodri will be able to play and he is pivotal for how the team looks.

I can’t quite talk myself into taking a small stake in the City moneyline here even though I probably should do that, I don’t think that this is a fewer than 25%-win rate for City match like it is being priced at right now.

Here are my bets for Round 5:

Crystal Palace -0.5

Manchester United +0.5

Brentford +0.5

I’d really like to take 2/3 for these and get back into the positives for the season.

My picks for round 3 lost going 1/4, I am 3/8 for the season overall. I feel a bit like I got some hard luck on them and I don’t think there was any major mistakes here.

Fulham +0.5, this was a tough one with the VAR overturn of the early Fulham goal and then a probably correct but equally could have found a way to not be given penalty the other way. It’s a stuff happens game and while you never know Chelsea looked good enough to win here.

Brentford to win, didn’t look good here at all. They missed a penalty and I had lost hope only to get a lifeline. They then gave it up late with penalty conceded of their own and then a late defensive lapse. Downgrading Brentford a bit on my mental model here.

Bournemouth +0.5, if I was bolder, I would have taken them to win and not just the points. A comprehensive and impressive win for Bournemouth. I think I was right to have a bit of skepticism on Spurs being a bit too high after City result but I didn’t imagine this happening.

Arsenal to win, we all know what happened here and there is no need to reopen those wounds. Fine margins will giveth and taketh.

The odds here are from William Hill Nevada and are the odds available as I am writing this post. There is no sponsorship or anything here, it is just the most convenient option, and I could probably do a bit better if shopped the lines a bit more and maybe some future date I will look at that.

By default, I don’t send this out to everyone so if you do want to get these in your email, you can update your settings for the individual newsletters that we send out: Learn more here.

Match Odds

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest

Arsenal: Scott - 62.0%, Betting - 69.3% Opta - 66.9%

Draw: Scott - 21.2%, Betting - 19.6% Opta - 18.1%

Nott'ham Forest: Scott - 16.8%, Betting - 11.1% Opta - 15.0%

The betting markets don’t stay stupid for too long and they have taken a quick reverse course on Nottingham Forest here. They were pretty overrated and now they are not looked at as a particularly strong opponent here.

The change in coach here from Nuno to Ange gives too much uncertainty for me to feel comfortable making a bet either way here.

Crystal Palace vs Sunderland

Crystal Palace: Scott - 54.6%, Betting - 56.6%, Opta - 71.6%

Draw: Scott - 26.4%, Betting - 26.2%, Opta - 16.3%

Sunderland: Scott - 19.0%, Betting - 17.2%, Opta - 12.1%

Sunderland have won their matches with a bit of smoke and mirrors and they aren’t really getting much love from the betting odds. I don’t know if I am convinced enough to back the money line on them winning, if the spread was +1 I’d look at it but it doesn’t show up as an edge here at +0.5

Bournemouth vs Brighton

Bournemouth: Scott - 38.5%, Betting - 39.2% Opta - 42.4%

Draw: Scott - 27.8%, Betting - 27.7% Opta - 26.7%

Brighton: Scott - 33.8%, Betting - 33.0% Opta - 30.9%

Another one that looks well priced by the betting odds and I don’t see any major value on either side of this or in the spreads.

Everton vs Aston Villa

Everton: Scott - 38.3%, Betting - 39.2% Opta - 34.5%

Draw: Scott - 28.2%, Betting - 29.4% Opta - 25.9%

Aston Villa: Scott - 33.5%, Betting - 31.4% Opta - 39.6%

I have been kind of impressed with Everton overall this season. The first game away to Leeds wasn’t good but they have beaten Brighton (a bit lucky) and Wolves (more convincingly). I am tempted to look at Everton to win here but I can’t quite pull the trigger on it and override the model.

Fulham vs Leeds United

Fulham: Scott - 48.8%, Betting - 49.4% Opta - 56.6%

Draw: Scott - 27.5%, Betting - 27.0% Opta - 22.4%

Leeds United: Scott - 23.7%, Betting - 23.6% Opta - 21.0%

Nothing especially good here, if this was at Leeds maybe I’d look harder at them but just not sure on it still.

Newcastle Utd vs Wolves

Newcastle Utd: Scott - 57.7%, Betting - 67.6% Opta - 64.9%

Draw: Scott - 24.1%, Betting - 20.6% Opta - 18.9%

Wolves: Scott - 18.2%, Betting - 11.8% Opta - 16.2%

The model likes Wolves and I can kind of see why that might be the case. Newcastle are a little injured (missing Wissa and Joelinton), missing Anthony Gordon with a suspension, and bedding new attackers. This could be a game that doesn’t suit them if Wolves sit back and make them create openings.

I just think Wolves might be trash.

Wolves at +1.5 just might be enough to make me get over that however because I can picture Newcastle struggling to create enough to beat them by 2 goals more than 40% of the time.

I am holding my nose and actually taking Wolves at +1.5 here.

Wolves +1.5

West Ham vs Tottenham

West Ham: Scott - 34.0%, Betting - 27.1% Opta - 32.7%

Draw: Scott - 27.1%, Betting - 27.9% Opta - 25.5%

Tottenham: Scott - 38.9%, Betting - 45.1% Opta - 41.8%

On the straight up bets my model leans West Ham, and normally I am down for a home underdog but I haven’t really seen anything good from West Ham that makes me want to back them here. You’d think a 3-0 win would have done that but that was a late flurry after 80+ minutes of yuck.

Nope not doing it.

Brentford vs Chelsea

Brentford: Scott - 30.6%, Betting - 20.5% Opta - 30.8%

Draw: Scott - 25.2%, Betting - 25.4% Opta - 25.1%

Chelsea: Scott - 44.2%, Betting - 54.1% Opta - 44.1%

After last round I am not trusting Brentford. I need to see more Chelsea to get a read on them. I will watch with interest but not making a bet here.

Burnley vs Liverpool

Burnley: Scott - 12.3%, Betting - 10.5% Opta - 13.9%

Draw: Scott - 18.0%, Betting - 18.8% Opta - 17.1%

Liverpool: Scott - 69.7%, Betting - 70.7% Opta - 69.0%

I am making an executive decision here an calling an override. Burnley against Spurs and United gave up 2.3 and 3.6 expected goals, those were away from home but they still look like they might have trouble stopping good attacks from generating chances. They ran so hot on defense last season in the Championship maybe there is still some mispricing here.

A big Liverpool win seems very possible here and I like the odds at -1.5 here.

Liverpool -1.5

Manchester City vs Manchester Utd

Manchester City: Scott - 57.4%, Betting - 54.0% Opta - 65.6%

Draw: Scott - 21.1%, Betting - 24.7% Opta - 18.6%

Manchester Utd: Scott - 21.5%, Betting - 21.3% Opta - 15.8%

Man City have come back from the international break injured badly. They have 10 players out potentially and with that much uncertainty there is no logical reason to put money behind them.

Here are my bets for Round 4:

Wolves +1.5

Liverpool -1.5

Not a lot of volume but it is a weird week coming back from an international break that saw a number of injuries and a lot of teams that have had change in the last week of the transfer window.

This page features Premier League projections from my model. I will try and keep this updated at least once a week after the model runs.

Simulated Table and Outcomes:

The title race is basically a dead heat, and it is in both Arsenal and Manchester City’s hands now to go and win this thing. Neither team needs the other to screw up to win it but a misstep by either could be the difference.

Team Ratings and Strength of Schedule:

Here is how the ratings that feed into the simulation view all of the teams:

Here is how it has changed since the pre-season baseline:

Here is how each team has performed compared to the difficulty of their schedule so far.

Key Race Points Distributions:

These graphics show the distributions for some of the key races. These help to illustrate the tipping point spots that would be required to get more points than second (win the title), finish in the Champions League spots, and ensure safety.

Title:

Manchester City needed Arsenal to stumble and play worse than they have all season long to open the door for them and that is exactly what they have gotten over the last couple of weeks. 2/5ths of Arsenal’s losses have come in the last two matches, and it feels worse because this is on top of Arsenal losing twice in the Cups. Arsenal’s form over the last month is 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses. It doesn’t feel good.

Manchester City needed to win out to have a chance, and they have passed the two biggest tests that they had with wins against Chelsea and Arsenal. The final matches of the season aren’t easy but they will be favored in each one. They might pull off their best stretch of form of the year and if they do hats off to them.

The magic numbers are back, and it is a combination of 16 points won/opposition dropped for Arsenal to win the title this season, it has unfortunately been that way now for a couple of weeks and this hasn’t really changed enough for any Arsenal fan’s liking.

Champions League:

The target for 5th or better looks like it is going to be in the low 60’s right now. The race for that last sport looks like it will need to be 61+ points.

It was a bad weekend for Chelsea who now look like massive, long shots to finish in the Champions League spots, even with the Premier League gifted an extra spot. Their best hope might be Aston Villa finishing 5th and winning the Europa League.

Relegation:

I really didn’t expect West Ham to pull this off but it looks like they just might be able to do it. They have jumped over Spurs and they held their ground matching the draw that Tottenham earned on Saturday.

The target for Forest, Spurs, and West Ham is that 39-point magic number. This looks like it will be a fun fight to watch going down to the wire. Leeds were able to get over that line and that should cover all but the most catastrophic of outcomes, Forest are a win away from hitting it and come in with the advantage on goal difference to both teams chasing them.

West Ham’s schedule is tougher and that will up the difficulty of the task.

They have the better overall form here and the advantage of just needing to match what Spurs do the rest of the way.

I will keep updating this as the season progresses.

I am back this week, and it is an interesting slate of matches and one where it is still tough to get a good read on a lot of these teams in the middle of the table. It does seem like for lots of teams they are tightly bunched right now and on any given day anyone can beat the other.

My picks for round 1 were a push going 2/4 but ultimately ending up slightly profitable.

Bournemouth +1.5, was a tough beat after they came back from 2 goals down to tie it up but gave up a late Salah goal to give me a loss.

Fulham +0.5, this was a fortunate win and balances things out a bit for the Bournemouth loss. Fulham were not great here but got the late equalizer to give me the win.

Crystal Palace +0.5, I took a bit of a gamble here that they still would have Eze in the team and that happened in this match. They played well against Chelsea, really limiting what they could create and could have even won it had their free kick goal stood.

Everton +0.5, I had hoped Everton would be able to look stronger here as the established PL team. They did not and while it took a handball penalty that I did not agree with, they would have been lucky to draw this match regardless.

The odds here are from William Hill Nevada and are the odds available as I am writing this post. There is no sponsorship or anything here, it is just the most convenient option, and I could probably do a bit better if shopped the lines a bit more and maybe some future date I will look at that.

By default, I don’t send this out to everyone so if you do want to get these in your email, you can update your settings for the individual newsletters that we send out: Learn more here.

Match Odds

Chelsea vs Fulham

Chelsea: Scott - 53.0%, Betting - 60.9% Opta - 59.4%

Draw: Scott - 25.0%, Betting - 22.6% Opta - 21.2%

Fulham: Scott - 22.1%, Betting - 16.5% Opta - 19.4%

The consensus here is Chelsea but Fulham have gotten draws in both matches to start things off this season while Chelsea struggled to create against a similar quality team in Crystal Palace.

I would have taken Fulham and the half point last weekend against Manchester United but I didn’t actually follow though on it. I think I like the way that they play against teams like this and would be hard to beat. The spread here has them at 2.4 which implies just 42% for a win or draw and I have that at 47%. I am still Chelsea skeptical and the big win against a bad West Ham team hasn’t changed that for me at all.

Fulham +0.5

Sunderland vs Brentford

Sunderland: Scott - 25.2%, Betting - 32.6% Opta - 33.2%

Draw: Scott - 29.3%, Betting - 29.6% Opta - 28.1%

Brentford: Scott - 45.5%, Betting - 37.8% Opta - 38.7%

I don’t have strong confidence in my model’s ratings of promoted teams and how teams that have had tons of transfer business like Brentford are tough to call.

There is some value here on Brentford just straight up to win where my model is pretty strong on them to win at 46% compared to the odds at 38%.

Brentford to win

Wolves vs Everton

Wolves: Scott - 33.3%, Betting - 34.4% Opta - 38.3%

Draw: Scott - 30.0%, Betting - 30.5% Opta - 27.8%

Everton: Scott - 36.8%, Betting - 35.1% Opta - 33.9%

My model doesn’t see any value here and I don’t have a good read for what Everton is yet. I like the business that they have done but I want to see a bit more here from both of these teams before doing anything.

Tottenham vs Bournemouth

Tottenham: Scott - 42.4%, Betting - 55.1% Opta - 52.7%

Draw: Scott - 25.2%, Betting - 23.5% Opta - 22.7%

Bournemouth: Scott - 32.4%, Betting - 21.4% Opta - 24.6%

Spurs got a big win last weekend against Manchester City and this feels like a line that has moved too much in response to that. Bournemouth have played well in their first two matches, showing up pretty well against Liverpool and beating a bad Wolves team. They lost a bunch of defensive talent but held on to the key attackers that they can offer threat.

Their chaos ball also just causes problems for lots of teams.

The line I am looking at here is Bournemouth +0.5 points at 2.05, that would say win or draw is implied at 49% and my model likes them much more than that giving them a nearly 58% chance of getting a result here.

Bournemouth +0.5

Manchester Utd vs Burnley

Manchester Utd: Scott - 59.7%, Betting - 69.7% Opta - 68%

Draw: Scott - 23.1%, Betting - 19.8% Opta - 18.4%

Burnley: Scott - 17.2%, Betting - 10.5% Opta - 13.6%

I am not touching Manchester United at all here. Nope need to see more here before even thinking about it. I also don’t like Burnley at all and would be uncomfortable doing anything on either side here.

Leeds United vs Newcastle Utd

Leeds United: Scott - 26.6%, Betting - 28.7% Opta - 29.5%

Draw: Scott - 24.1%, Betting - 26.3% Opta - 25.8%

Newcastle Utd: Scott - 49.2%, Betting - 45.1% Opta - 44.7%

My model says there is a bit of value on Newcastle here, especially at -0.5 points. I just don’t know if it is strong enough to go with it yet.

I am staying away here.

Nott'ham Forest vs West Ham

Nott'ham Forest: Scott - 48.2%, Betting - 55.8% Opta - 55%

Draw: Scott - 27.8%, Betting - 26.2% Opta - 23.9%

West Ham: Scott - 24.0%, Betting - 18.0% Opta - 21.1%

My model likes West Ham but I hate West Ham and think that they are significantly worse than their current rating. It is just a squad that isn’t put together well and I am not betting on them for the foreseeable future. I am not high enough on Forest to override things here so this is a stay away bet.

Brighton vs Manchester City

Brighton: Scott - 23.6%, Betting - 24.8% Opta - 25.9%

Draw: Scott - 22.5%, Betting - 24.8% Opta - 23.8%

Manchester City: Scott - 53.9%, Betting - 50.4% Opta - 50.3%

This is a tough one and I generally like when you can grab home underdogs. This one is just one where there isn’t the value here and even though Manchester City lost against Spurs they were a few missed big chances from that story going the other way, that’s still a strong team and they have a big talent advantage. I don’t have a good read on either team here and I am staying away, even if I would lean Brighton here.

Liverpool vs Arsenal

Liverpool: Scott - 42.8%, Betting - 42.8% Opta - 44.9%

Draw: Scott - 22.0%, Betting - 27.7% Opta - 25.4%

Arsenal: Scott - 35.2%, Betting - 29.4% Opta -29.7%

Arsenal to win straight up here is where my model sees value and I’d generally agree here. That feels crazy to say given the injuries that Arsenal are coming in with and the amount of time since they last won here but this does just have the feel that the potential for this match favors Arsenal to actually win here.

The odds are fairly long at 3.2 and that is 29% vs my model putting it more like 35%. I hate betting with Arsenal on these types because if it goes wrong it feels like double punishment but I kind of want to back this one.

Arsenal to win

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace

Aston Villa: Scott - 46.2%, Betting - 49.6% Opta - 49.4%

Draw: Scott - 26.6%, Betting - 27.9% Opta - 25%

Crystal Palace: Scott - 27.2%, Betting - 22.6% Opta - 25.6%

There is no real value here and with Crystal Palace losing Eze, I want to see a few matches of how they adapt before putting any money behind them.

Here are my bets for Round 3:

Fulham +0.5

Brentford to win

Bournemouth +0.5

Arsenal to win

I have gone heavy towards road underdogs, and it does seem like my model doesn’t have quite as much homefield advantage priced in as the betting odds do. I didn’t particularly underperform for home predictions last season and have adjustments there so I feel decently that I am not making a major mistake here, but it is something that I will watch in the coming weeks.

In this newsletter I will go through my simulation and compare it against the betting odds (I am going to use William Hill Nevada, it is not sponsored it is just convenient for me and if I do choose to bet where I would actually place it most likely). I will also take a look at what the Opta “supercomputer” spits out.

I am not a massive fan of the Opta model, and I don’t think that it performs all that well and it would make me feel better to see if my decidedly not supercomputer is able to do better than it does this season.

If you haven’t seen it, here is a bit more on what goes into my simulation model.

I have not really done too many changes since I wrote this up (really the only change is the addition of a simple adjustment for injury, it takes the transfer market value of the players out compared to a team’s overall transfer market value and adjusts the team rating accordingly) and I have made zero changes from last season.

I think that overall, the model has performed well and while there is room to increase accuracy, I have not felt that it was worth the time to do them compared to other projects that I have taken on.

To set the starting point, here are the current team ratings for the Premier League.

There is a clear top three, there is Chelsea and Newcastle (I am a bit dubious here on the team, but they finished strong) and then the rest. My biggest disagreements with the ratings are that even though I am high on Leeds, I am not they are the 14th best team high on them, I do not buy Manchester United (they get a big boost from the wage bill regression at the start of the season), Bournemouth and Brentford could be lower after having their teams raided.

Match Odds

Liverpool vs Bournemouth

Liverpool: Scott - 67.1%, Betting - 71.8%, Opta - 69.4%

Draw: Scott - 18.2%, Betting - 17.1%, Opta - 16.9%

Bournemouth: Scott - 14.8%, Betting - 11.1%, Opta - 13.7%

The consensus here is Liverpool, my model sees some value backing Bournemouth here. Bournemouth +1.5 looks potentially tasty here. Bournemouth have lost a lot in defense but retained their key attackers, Liverpool against a transition team like Bournemouth while they are still figuring things out?

I think I have talked myself into that one.

Bournemouth +1.5

Aston Villa vs Newcastle Utd

Aston Villa: Scott - 43.4%, Betting - 43.1% Opta - 42.6%

Draw: Scott - 24.7%, Betting - 26.3% Opta - 25.1%

Newcastle Utd: Scott - 31.9%, Betting - 30.6% Opta - 32.3%

I don’t see a ton of value here. I don’t know what either of these teams will look like and I don’t have enough trust to pull the trigger on any of these, my model sees no value on any of the bets here.

Sunderland vs West Ham

Sunderland: Scott - 22.7%, Betting - 29.5% Opta - 30.3%

Draw: Scott - 28.5%, Betting - 28.6% Opta - 26.4%

West Ham: Scott - 48.8%, Betting - 41.9% Opta - 43.3%

My model would say back West Ham here, but I am going to sit this one out. I need to see a bit more West Ham before I’d be willing to put money behind them. I think that they might be a team where my opinion shifts heavily negative on them quickly if they struggle.

Tottenham vs Burnley

Tottenham: Scott - 49.8%, Betting - 68.4% Opta - 66.1%

Draw: Scott - 25.3%, Betting - 20.5% Opta - 19.4%

Burnley: Scott - 24.9%, Betting - 11.1% Opta - 14.5%

My model likes Burnley more than I do. I am staying away from the promoted teams however early, not trusting how the translation works going from the Championship to the Premier League. The consensus view on Burnley is that they are the worst of the three promoted teams and that is enough to scare me away from backing this without having done a ton of research into them.

Brighton vs Fulham

Brighton: Scott - 43.3%, Betting - 49.2% Opta - 49.1%

Draw: Scott - 26.6%, Betting - 26.1% Opta - 24.5%

Fulham: Scott - 30.1%, Betting - 24.7% Opta - 26.4%

I agree with my model here, being a bit more skeptical on Brighton than the betting odds and Opta here. I kind of also like Fulham, they haven’t had an exciting summer but they have kept their core together and it is in a good age to produce at a high level.

I can take Fulham +0.5 at 1.87 and I think that is a plus EV bet where the implied odds are 53% and my odds have it nearly 57%.

Fulham +0.5

Wolves vs Manchester City

Wolves: Scott - 20.5%, Betting - 14.5% Opta - 16.6%

Draw: Scott - 22.9%, Betting - 20.5% Opta - 21.2%

Manchester City: Scott - 56.6%, Betting - 65.0% Opta - 62.2%

I think that there might value fading Manchester City early this season, they are highly thought of and I think that the combination of a late pre-season due to the Club World Cup, no Rodri for the first few, and Pep needing to figure things out would have them not firing on all cylinders.

The problem is here is that I also don’t trust Wolves. My model says this is a plus EV bet but I want to wait and see on this one.

Nottingham Forest vs Brentford

Nott'ham Forest: Scott - 41.0%, Betting - 43.8% Opta - 45.5%

Draw: Scott - 28.6%, Betting - 28.5% Opta - 26%

Brentford: Scott - 30.5%, Betting - 27.7% Opta - 28.5%

My model would ever so slightly say back Brentford here but it is not strong enough, nor is my conviction in either of these teams to have a strong read into the game. There is too much churn on Brentford, I am down on Forest but I think that will show up more when they have to start contending with the Europa League.

I am interested in the match but staying away.

Chelsea vs Crystal Palace

Chelsea: Scott - 52.0%, Betting - 58.5% Opta - 57.3%

Draw: Scott - 23.5%, Betting - 23.5% Opta - 21.8%

Crystal Palace: Scott - 24.5%, Betting - 17.9% Opta - 20.9%

Crystal Palace haven’t lost any of their major players yet, they were very strong at the end of last season and had a good outing against Liverpool. Chelsea put together a strong Club World Cup but they also were just pretty good at the end of last season.

I think Chelsea are the 4th best team but perhaps at a weaker spot than the market does.

Crystal Palace at +0.5 is 2.25 and that is a 44% expected, my model would say win + draw is 47%. That’s not a massive misprice but it is plus EV. It would also be fun to be rooting for Chelsea to not win so I am going to go for it here.

Crystal Palace +0.5

Manchester Utd vs Arsenal

Manchester Utd: Scott - 24.3%, Betting - 24.8% Opta - 28.3%

Draw: Scott - 22.6%, Betting - 26.9% Opta - 25.4%

Arsenal: Scott - 53.0%, Betting - 48.3% Opta - 46.3%

It’s crazy to me how high so many people are on Manchester United because I just do not see it. This fixture scares me because Arsenal have never played especially well at Old Trafford but on paper, I don’t think that this is particularly close.

In the time that I have been writing this article, the line has moved going from 1.95 to 1.87 and with it that has put the betting odds in line with my view and that means I am not betting this one.

Leeds United vs Everton

Leeds United: Scott - 29.8%, Betting - 39.1% Opta - 40.1%

Draw: Scott - 25.8%, Betting - 28.5% Opta - 26.6%

Everton: Scott - 44.4%, Betting - 32.4% Opta - 33.6%

I am shocked by this line.

I think Everton have become quite competent under David Moyes and they are playing a promoted team. It is a Monday night away, Leeds did have a very strong record at home and excellent numbers in the Championship but to be favorite here?

I am high on them (my model thinks they are 14th best!) but not that high.

I can get Everton +0.5 at 1.59 here, that is 63% while my already juiced for Leeds model sees it as 70%. I was already wanting to discount the model output on Leeds early until I saw more of them, so this does push me towards Everton here. It is almost like a what is the catch here situation? What does everyone else see that I am missing?

Everton +0.5

Here is my bets for Round 1:

Bournemouth +1.5

Fulham +0.5

Crystal Palace +0.5

Everton +0.5

I have gone heavy towards road underdogs here and that is not always the most fun position to be in but I do feel pretty good about the picks here. Let’s see how I do this season.

• Last week the bet on Bournemouth over Manchester City got me to a profitable weekend.

• I was confident about Arsenal and that bit me and Arsenal had one of their worst performances of the year. Yuck. It has turned the vibes bad especially when combined with a bit of a footballing in the Champions League.

• Everton were bad and they look like they could be in trouble not able to do much of anything against Southampton

• I was pretty big on Chelsea and they did okay, maybe if they got the red cards they win that match but it wasn’t a bad beat at all.

Overall, still up 3.6 Units on the season.

Picks for Week 11:

Liverpool vs Aston Villa

Aston Villa (+1.5) - 1.75

Aston Villa - 7.0

The betting odds have this one closer to 14% implied and I like this closer to 17%. I also just think that this might tilt towards the style of Unai Emery in a big game. I would like it more if they were at home, especially coming off a pretty limp Champions League performance in midweek. I did take a hedge bet here too to give me some coverage on a close loss or draw.

Crystal Palace vs Fulham

Fulham - 2.6

Crystal Palace have not played especially well this season. Fulham have. Betting odds have it closer to 36% while my model has it closer to 40%. The other one is that Palace are pretty hard hit with injuries right now and I think that might tilt it further Fulham’s way.

Manchester Utd vs Leicester City

Leicester (+1.5) - 1.83

Leicester - 8

Another one for I have a hedge bet because I think there is a good chance that this is just close regardless, but I want some of the upside if Leicester can get something from it. The betting odds have at 12% while I am closer to 16%, maybe too much hope that the team is better with the lifting of Ten Hag from management.

I still think that this is a team that is flawed and I hope that being at home maybe they leave an opening for Leicester to counter them through.

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Utd

Nottingham Forest - 2.65

Forest look legit and this might end up more of a draw but overall I do like the chance that they can be hard to score against and carve out enough to get some goals.

I am still up on the season but that did put a dent in my ego.

This week I have made the time and I think I feel pretty good about my picks this week.

Newcastle Utd vs Arsenal

I am putting 2 units on Arsenal here. I have some pretty big confidence for what Arsenal can do here and I think that the injury situation is probably less bad than it was last week.

Arsenal were able to have a more training type match than Newcastle in the midweek and they also have the intangible need to avenge from last season’s robbery by the referees.

This is a plus EV bet as well which makes me feel even better.

Southampton vs Everton

Southampton aren’t great, Everton are weird but probably solidly good enough. I think that this match also favors Everton where they can play this on the break and hopefully take advantage of Southampton making a mistake.

My model has this as a plus EV play and I do like the odds here at 2.6

Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Manchester City will probably figure out a way to still win this but if there was a time for them to drop points and lose I would love it to be here. Bournemouth are a team that I think could be designed to give City trouble and they just had a punishing League Cup match where they are left very short of senior players (I don’t really trust Pep to tell the truth on the injury situation either).

My model has this as a plus EV bet and I hope it is right here at 5.5.

Manchester Utd vs Chelsea

This one feels like they are giving me free money.

I know Manchester United got rid of Ten Hag but this is still a dysfunctional team that is not exactly coherently built. It is at Old Trafford but I strongly believe that Chelsea is a much better team and that they will be able to show it here.

I have Chelsea at 2.45 to win here.

These are my picks for this weekend:

Crystal Palace - Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

Ipswitch (+0.5) -West Ham vs Ipswitch

Nottingham Forest - Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa - Aston Villa vs Manchester Utd

This was a tough weekend, with a lot of matchups that I am not perfectly comfortable with and ones I am watching the lines to see if they move in a way I would like.

Last weekend went 1/4, overall 52% up 5.8 units

Newcastle Utd - Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City

This felt like a potential tough beat. I thought Newcastle should have had a second penalty not long after they got the first one but regardless had the chances in the second half to win. Manchester City look fragile still and I would probably stay away from betting on them for a while. Right now City are having trouble creating clear scoring chances against set defenses.

Brighton - Chelsea vs Brighton

Brighton’s defense was atrocious in this match and then they got got by Cole Palmer having a heater. The scoreline is probably flattering to how Chelsea played because much of this was Brighton gifting chances. I am generally in the I don’t really know what to do with either of these teams phase.

Liverpool (-1.5) - Wolves vs Liverpool

Liverpool looked off the pace. They won but they looked far from dominating and I was very disappointed in how they sort of went conservative when the restored the lead. It more than anything changes how I view Liverpool than I how I view Wolves, I don’t think that is what Klopp would have done. A disappointing beat there.

Tottenham - Manchester Utd vs Tottenham

I didn’t expect the red card and it was a joke of a call but this was kind of like I expected. Tottenham were a bad matchup on paper for United and it turned out exactly like that. Tottenham added on after the red card but even before it looked like the better team.

Picks for this weekend explained

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

This is an uncomfortable but plus EV bet and I am going to put some trust in the cold calculating model here. Crystal Palace have looked weird and have probably been the victim of sequencing, before last weekend where they blew a lead they had not lead all season. Overall, their numbers aren’t great but they aren’t atrocious either.

I do hope here that Palace can frustrate Liverpool and do just enough to nick something, there is also the bonus that Liverpool are coming off playing in the Champions League (home but with basically no rotation) and this is an early match so they will have a rest disadvantage.

Pick: 0.4 Unit on Crystal Palace at 6.25

West Ham vs Ipswitch

My model says a draw here is actually the plus EV bet but so is taking Ipswitch and half a goal so I can get both a draw and win here. West Ham have not played well and have thus far not been much better than Ipswitch. I would expect that West Ham SHOULD have more talent but they have so far not really played like it, with a new coach and a bunch of changes from how they played under Moyes it could just turn out failing.

Pick: 1 Unit on Ipswitch (+0.5) at 2.05

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

I am a little Nottingham Forest pilled this season. Nuno is one of the last classic coaches for the level of this team and has them playing a very tough to beat style with threat to break against you. Chelsea’s defense can still be beaten and I think there is a chance that Forest can exploit that.

Not a big bet but one I feel comfortable taking at these odds.

Pick: 0.4 Unit on Nottingham Forest at 6.25

Aston Villa vs Manchester Utd

I locked this in basically right after full time last weekend, the line at 2.3 was too good to pass up and I didn’t need my model to tell me that was looking like a plus EV pick. The line has moved further towards Aston Villa so I am glad I pulled the trigger on it.

I like the matchup here a lot. Aston Villa at home are very tough, Manchester United against teams that can run through the middle struggle and I think there is a chance that we can see Villa create a number of openings for their forwards. Manchester United will also have a day less of rest after going to Porto in the Europa League.

The worry right now is that Amadou Onana picked up a niggle in their Champions League match and might be a doubt. They also have Leon Bailey and Jacob Ramsey as doubts. These are not things I like but not things that make me want to change my bet.

Pick: 1 Unit on Aston Villa at 2.3

These are my picks for this weekend:

Newcastle Utd - Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City

Brighton - Chelsea vs Brighton

Liverpool (-1.5) - Wolves vs Liverpool

Tottenham - Manchester Utd vs Tottenham

If I can go 2/4 on these I think I will be pretty happy on these picks. Full explanations for my thoughts below:

Newcastle vs Manchester City

This is a bet that pops up as a positive expected value play picking just Newcastle to win. It isn’t big I have this at 20% and the odds at my sports book show it at 19%.

The big driver of this is without a doubt that Rodri is looking like he will be out for a long period, and we haven’t seen what Manchester City can do for an extended period without him. That ignores that they have played already without him to start the season.

My pause on this is that I don’t know if I trust Newcastle United much. They have played a soft schedule and have not looked all that great. This even ignores that they spent a good amount of time down a man against Southampton.

Overall, their numbers over the last 19 matches played don’t inspire a lot of faith about this team. This is no longer the very strong defensive team that finished the 2022-23 season pushing Arsenal for the title of second-best team in the League.

I am still going to take the shot with Newcastle here but I am not going to like it.

Pick: 1 Unit on Newcastle at 5.0

Chelsea vs Brighton

This is another pick that is showing as a plus expected value play towards Brighton. My model puts this at 23% and the betting odds are pricing it at 22%.

I like this pick, but it is not without some worry. Brighton have been the beneficiary of red card luck in their favor and that is boosting their numbers early on. Even adjusting for that and including last year’s numbers they are not that far off of Chelsea’s rating.

I still really don’t know what to make of Chelsea. They played well against Manchester City, blew out Wolves (who I think are bad) but looked too open at times, and outplayed Crystal Palace (but had an unfortunate draw). The last two matches have been less inspiring, they won big against West Ham but I don’t think were that impressive, and won against Bournemouth in a match that I think they were pretty fortunate.

This is probably why they are in the 4th to 6th range, a team with talent but one that will have inconsistent performances.

Pick: 1 Unit on Brighton at 4.4

Wolves vs Liverpool

This isn’t a plus expected value pick but this is one that I think the betting market hasn’t fully adjusted to the same view as me on how good Wolves are this season. This is a team that isn’t playing well and hasn’t been playing well for a while.

I do also really like Liverpool, they have had a soft schedule but have mostly taken care of business, while showing some interesting adaptations to life under Slott and I think they will have plenty to get past this Wolves team in this match.

Looking at my model and I see the best odds to overall predicted taking the spread bet (first time this season, wish me luck). I have Liverpool beating Wolves by 2 goals as 51% chance outcome and that matches well with the overall odds at Liverpool -1.5 and is better than the straight MoneyLine pick.

Pick: 1 Unit on Liverpool (-1.5) at 1.95

Manchester Utd vs Tottenham

My last bet of the weekend is one of my favorite bets so far this season and that is betting against Manchester United.

So far this season, the betting odds have priced Manchester United as much better team than I think they are. I think the team has improved from last season but it is still quite a ways off from how they are treated, they started out being priced like the 5th best team in the League and that is down to 6th best. That is closer to the 9th my model puts them at but still represents some potential value to go against them.

This is a pretty solid plus expected value pick, with Tottenham looking like an interesting mess of a team. In a way they share lots of similarities to Chelsea where they have some matches that have looked good, others where the performance is okay but they are too open and others that have looked not great.

I think this is a good matchup for them. Manchester United still have frailty to teams that can string together a couple of passes and exploit the areas for cutbacks into the middle. That is something that Spurs do well and it could present them plenty of opportunities to create scoring chances.

Pick: 1 Unit on Spurs at 2.75

Bets this season:

Tracking all the bets I have made this season, overall I am +7.055 units on the season with a couple of hot weeks on the picks.