Before we get too far into breaking down the Chelsea match, I want to wish everyone a wonderful St. Totteringham’s Day. From what I have seen this is the earliest that this has ever come in a season. It feels like a bit of small potatoes in the grand scheme of the season, but it is still important to find joy in the little things that life presents us.

Now let’s get into this match. It is a tough one to break down, like the North London Derby that preceded it, this is a match that has some deep dislike and hatred that goes with it.

For myself, being a fan over 5,000 miles away, I have always had more hatred for Chelsea. They are the club that through their unprecedented spending usurped Arsenal in the pecking order of the Premier League. They also had put Arsenal into a bit of a little brother type of position, beating Arsenal over and over, but even more than just that, doing so in a way that felt a bit humiliating. I hate them.

From the start of 2004 through Mikel Arteta taking charge of Arsenal, the outcome of this derby was incredibly one-sided. Arsenal had won just 9 out of 37 played, and they were outscored by 20 goals in that stretch.

Since then, the dynamic has shifted dramatically towards Arsenal. Since 2019, Arsenal have now won 11 of the 17 played, losing just twice while outscoring them by 17 goals. We have now gone 11 straight against them and not lost winning 8.

There are things to pick out this match to analyze but let’s not let the big picture get lost here that beating Chelsea always feels really great.

Arsenal vs Chelsea: The Graphics

Arsenal vs Chelsea: The Debrief

12 - Shots from Arsenal in this match. 8 in the first half and 11 of them in the first 70 minutes of the match.

1.3 - Expected goals, with just 0.4 coming from open play.

4 - Touches in “Zone 14”

0 - Box entries from “Zone 14” and just 2, from the dangerous areas centrally just outside the penalty box.

46 - Passes completed in the final third from open play.

0 - Shots from high possessions won, 12 total chances.

This match felt a bit like a throwback to Arsenal doing about 90% of what you want in attack well but they lacked the most important execution that turns dangerous moments into actual passes completed into the box or shots at goal.

The attacking numbers in this match aren’t bad, but they were not up to what you would expect from Arsenal either. Arsenal struggled to get the ball into central locations and with the few opportunities that they did have, they didn’t turn that into shots.

I think that this is especially true of the first half. Arsenal started off brightly but didn’t quite do enough to turn opportunities into shots, and shots into goals. Arsenal did get a goal, but the way that they played very well could have or maybe even should have produced 1 or 2 more to match the dominance in the match.

Late, this game fizzled out and we will talk more about that later in depth.

I come away from this match mostly positive because even though I want more, I do recognize that this should be one of the harder matches remaining in this season. Chelsea are a weird team but that doesn’t mean that they are a push over at all.

I think that you can make a pretty strong case that for the totality of the season that they might be the third best team in the League. Looking at what they have done when they haven’t picked up a red card (red cards are a bit random but it does seem like most of the ones Chelsea have gotten are well earned and a reflection of the team) they rank as not far off Arsenal and slightly better than Manchester City.

This is an expensively acquired team, and it is full of talent, especially in attack and midfield (that’s where the resale value is). It doesn’t always work as a cohesive team but there is no denying that at least on an individual basis the talent here.

In this match, Arsenal basically shut them down. Here is what they did attacking compared to their average numbers this season.

There is just nothing here that they did better than average and most of these are on closer to their worst than they are to average.

Having a player less matters for this but even in this match, it wasn’t like before that they were playing so well that the red card derailed them. In fact, they almost caused Arsenal more problems down a man and that gives us a good transition into the next section.

Arsenal lose control once again

From the 86th minute to the end of the match:

14 - Passes Attempted by Arsenal, compared to 63 for Chelsea

8 - Passes completed by Arsenal, compared to 54 for Chelsea

57.1% - Arsenal’s pass completion percentage

0 - Final third passes attempted, compared to 20 for Chelsea

50% - The percentage of Arsenal’s passes attempted that were long

1 - Possession sequence that had 3 or more passes (it was 5 passes long and it was in the 94th minute)

Seeing out the game against Chelsea, Arsenal were decidedly less capable of holding on to the ball. Some of that was that they didn’t really make an attempt to do it and some of it was that they looked like they were feeling the pressure and just want to have a momentary break by just getting the ball away from present potential danger.

This is becoming a bit of a worrying trend for me, and it is something that has popped up a bit more in recent matches. Here is what Jurrien Timber said after the match that matches how I saw it:

We stopped playing a bit [against Chelsea], which was unnecessary - especially with a man up. It's something we need to work on, talk about as well. It happened a couple of times this season already.

We put so much effort into the game, especially in the first half, and you have to go up 1-0 or 2-0, but these things happen - especially against a good team like Chelsea.

It’s part of the game, you have to understand what happens in the moment. The energy within the players and the crowd, the anxiety. It’s something we need to address and talk about.

With the cold rational, less being on the edge of my seat, clear headed view the final minutes were not as bad as they felt at the time. That also doesn’t mean that I think that it was good, just less bad. I have higher expectations of what I think that this team should be capable of doing in these situations and I can’t help but feel like this is a bit of tempting fate.

There was something that was said on the Double Pivot podcast and I think it makes a good point. We have come to expect that good teams, and especially teams that win the League play in a certain way. Arsenal have mostly fit the mold of these teams, but they have one crucial departure and that is that they are incredibly comfortable playing defense off of the ball.

When you look back at what Chelsea actually did in this period, it’s not much.

They had a single shot (Caicedo) and dangerous cross that was well delivered into the zone of uncertainty. The cross was the most dangerous moment but saw Arsenal execute like you’d expect from the best defense in the League. The cross was well defended by Gabriel to not let João Pedro make a play on the ball and it did force Raya to push it away dramatically, after he held his position reading the play, reacting late to the ball.

I am not sure that it is inherently riskier to trust your defense to see you through and to execute than it would be to try and hold on to the ball while the other team presses to take it off of you. If you are trying to keep the ball and fail to execute that can open up a team to a potentially good scoring opportunity as well.

It might be something that is rarer, but leads to a bigger chance compared to the defending choice but it certainly has a different feel to it. With Arsenal having been burnt by late goals, we as fans have that in the back of our minds as the time ticks away.

Arsenal under Arteta have been a team that controls a game, even against top opposition. That didn’t always mean that they had all of the possession but even when out of possession it felt like it would more often be Arsenal dictating where the game would be played. This is hard to fully quantify but right now that really seems like a much harder task for Arsenal than it had been previously.

One of the changes is that in midfield Arsenal have a new player and he’s playing in a different way.

Zubimendi Struggles

27 - Pass Attempts (6th on Arsenal), 21 passes completed for 77.8% pass completion percentage with a 97.2% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

4 - Final 3rd Entry Passes

3 - Progressive Passes

2 - Box Entry Pass

3 - Deep Completions (not Cross)

1 - Shot, 0 on target for 0.06 expected goals.

0 - Dribbles Completed out of 0 attempted, plus 0 times fouled.

31 - Progressive Carry Distance in yards

1 - Progressive Carry

0 - Carry into Final Third

3 - Tackles with 0 times dribbled past and 1 foul committed

0 - Interceptions or blocked passes

2 - Ball Recoveries

Martin Zubimendi has had a good first year for Arsenal and has been one of the signings this summer to make the biggest impact on the team. I think that he has adapted well to a new League and has been a major factor for Arsenal leading the Premier League while also being the current favorite in the other three competitions that they are in.

I do think that there is a bit of a potential correlation that this is also the season where Arsenal have less control, especially in pivotal high-pressure situations than they had in season’s past. Zubimendi may play the same position as Jorginho and Thomas Partey but he does it in a different style and I think that is apparent in matches like this.

After the red card, Zubimendi had just 7 passes total (completing all 7). It is great that he completed all the passes that he completed but this felt like a situation that was calling out for someone who be in the situation to receive all over and strangle the game taking the sting and hope out of Chelsea.

Maybe we need to recalibrate what we expect from this player and Arsenal in these situations?

There is no easy way to write this post this morning.

There is no tone that will satisfy everyone. Some people will want more anger and nervousness. Others will want more putting this into context and reassurance that it’s not over.

I pride myself on being more of the latter fan, not getting too high during the up periods but especially not getting too low during the rough patches. That is more of where this post will go and if you’re not wanting that, it’s fair and maybe it is something you skip.

I can understand that feeling and honestly, I often feel the opposite direction, where this massive negativity builds up and I just want to turn it off. That doesn’t mean that I don’t have the moments where the anger and frustration builds up, I do, but I do try and take a bit of time.

Before we get into the analysis, I want to mention again that I am sorry about the slow down in content. I have been working on a big new project that will make things better for my data and the content we are able to produce. This will be addressing a number of areas where I think that there are gaps/misunderstandings from common understanding, this also is a major upgrade to how long the data takes to process and become usable.

The first new cool feature was deployed yesterday in the Discord (link to join here if you haven’t and are interested) with the MatchGraphicsBot that posted an updated dashboard of stats as the match was live every 5 minutes.

I still got some bugs to work out on it and some tweaks I’d like to make but overall, it was a cool new feature to be able to deploy from all of the hard work on the backend.

Alright let’s dig in here.

Wolves vs Arsenal: The Graphics

Wolves vs Arsenal: The Debrief

Some mixed messages from the stats

The good:

1.54 - Expected goals, with almost all of it from open play.

3 - Big chances for Arsenal (all from open play)

2 - Goals scored away from home

5 - Shots allowed

0.5 - Expected goals allowed, Arsenal had +1.0 on the difference here.

1 - Big chance allowed (the final shot from Wolves, following the error)

This isn’t the type of stats the would signify that this was a dominate performance, this was also a performance of a team that was superior to their opponents and will very often produce three points.

Arsenal were a few minutes away from getting that and us feeling significantly different about this match. If the final whistle had blown at 94’ before the error, we are almost certainly saying job done, not the greatest but a nice away win on a midweek. It wouldn’t have been a match to relive for all but the most sicko among us but I don’t think that it would have raised major red flags.

That out of the way…

The less good from the match:

1 - Shot for Arsenal from the 57th minute until the 95th minute after Arsenal scored the 2nd goal. (Trossard 73’, 0.02 xG)

51% - Arsenal’s possession from the 57th minute until the end of the match

75.6% - Arsenal’s pass completion percentage from the 57th minute until the end of the match

41 - Passes attempted in the final third by Arsenal (Wolves managed 33) from the 57th minute until the end of the match

7 - Touches in the box for both teams from the 57th minute until the end of the match

Arsenal played pretty well in the first half, again not the greatest but they showed that they were a superior team to Wolves and they were worth their lead and on another night it would have already been 2-0 or more at that point.

Arsenal continued that to start the second half and produced a nice bit of play to get Piero Hincapié free behind the Wolves line (it’s Arsenal so it has to be a full back doing dangerous things right?). He finished it wonderfully and it was 2-0 and it felt like that should be it and game over.

If you had told me before kickoff that Arsenal would be two goals up before 60’, I would have bet heavily on the game ending 4-0 over it ending 2-2. This is Arsenal, they have a stupendous defense and an attack that is not perfect, but it is good at adding on and front running.

Except that all just kind of stopped.

I think that this Attacking Pressure chart does an excellent job of illustrating this. This is the measure of the number of positive attacking actions a team is doing during each minute.

Before the goal, Arsenal had bunched together quite a few good attacking moments (again not the greatest but still much more than Wolves). Wolves had worked their way back into it a bit at the start of the second half but it really just stopped for Arsenal after the goal and it looked like the strategy switched to nullify Wolves after they pulled the goal back.

Arteta has talked about how, this isn’t really his instruction but given that this is not the first time we have seen this from the team, maybe something is getting garbled up between what he is saying and what the players are implementing.

I can understand a bit dialing back the risk dial up a goal but the way that Arsenal go about it at times, especially against opposition that is just factually inferior can be frustrating.

This is less of the in-vogue style at the moment and perhaps this more a reflection of the overall strength of the Premier League down the table, but it does seem that the days of sterile, dominate, defensive possession are tougher or not really attempted to implement.

Arsenal had most of the ball early but that started to shift as the second half approached and flipped to basically even from the 50th minute onwards.

In the first half it was 287 passes for Arsenal to 137 passes for Wolves, up to the 57th minute it was 384 to 232, and then from 57 to the end it was 172 to 165.

That’s just baffling.

Wolves are not the worst team in the League even with their very lowly point total and bottom of the table status but they are also not a team that you’d mistake for being good either.

Yes, they were at home but this would still be a situation where if Arsenal wanted to they should be able to stamp their talent advantage.

I have a few questions on the in-game tactics

After the big win in the FA Cup with Bukayo Saka playing in the “10” role, Arteta unprompted, brought up that this would be something that he would consider again. I guess he really meant it because we saw it again here.

Saka still favored the right-hand side but he had a bunch of freedom, and it looked more natural to him on the side than it has with say an Eze trying to do the same thing.

He scored a goal from his only shot, and didn’t have any shots assisted but overall, he was still the player that looked most threatening on the day.

The part that was a bit questionable was the other players that ended up around him, especially what that meant for the options that would be available from the bench.

Arteta went with Noni Madueke on the right, and given Saka was playing inside I have no problem with that. He decided to pair that with Viktor Gyökeres and Gabriel Martinelli and that is the part that doesn’t quite make sense to me.

I don’t have a problem with either choice in isolation, it is that they both played here and I think that led to balance issues and limited the effectiveness of the choices made down the line as the match went on. This is something that the prolific writer Billy Carpenter has been highlighting, and I think that there is some truth to it and that this is something that Arteta can improve upon.

It’s a long read, but I think it is worth your time.

Billy's BBQ

Triangles

“When you see him like that, you don’t have to worry, because that’s not how it’s going to be for you. You’re not going to be one of these people who goes through life wondering why shit keeps falling out of the sky around them. I know that. I know it. OK…

Read more

2 months ago · 90 likes · 16 comments · Billy Carpenter

Arsenal’s bench and the players available to my, perhaps an idiot, view was more suited to the keep the ball and pass Wolves to death and not the sit back more, let them have the ball and try to create counter attacks that Arsenal actually tried to do.

This will be something I want to try and watch more carefully to see if there are adjustments made here.

It’s still in Arsenal’s hands

I guess (I watch on NBC so I don’t know and this is always interesting because I can often tell when something is said there vs what happens in a match because it can have a massive altering of the feelings and narrative vs just happened in the match) after the match the commentary on Sky made the point that now City controlled their own destiny for the title. If, and I do think that it is a pretty big if, they win out, they will be Champions.

That is true and it had not been the case for a while and that will up the anxiety levels.

This doesn’t mean that things are no longer in Arsenal’s hands though. In fact, they are more in Arsenal’s hands right now.

Arsenal do NOT need to win all of their matches to be title winners. They do not have to win the head-to-head matchup as things stand. This isn’t a comfortable position to be in, I’d like to go back to having a several point lead but given the choice between this and being the team that is trying to chase down someone else, I’d rather have the position of being ahead.

I wrote previously that the title fight this season is different to those in the past and I still believe that.

This has been an uncharacteristic blip from Arsenal. This team has dropped points from winning positions in three of their last five Premier League matches.

Again, if you have given me the information that Arsenal would be 1-0 up on Manchester United at home, that Arsenal would be 1-0 up on Brentford, and that Arsenal would be 2-0 up against Wolves and asked me to tell you how many points they won I would have said 9 and at worst that it would be 6 or 7.

Instead that has turned into just 2 points and that is painful and it has eaten up a ton of the margin for error that Arsenal had built up. This is also a pretty left tailed outcome that shouldn’t happen all that often. I know I will get a lot of stick if Arsenal don’t go on to win the title because my simulation model was so heavily in Arsenal’s favor here and it would be a out of the blue type of run like that above that would have been needed to get to this point.

This has reignited talk about mentality and Arsenal. I am not entirely dismissive of it, the mental side of the game matters but where I am dismissive is that Arsenal have some sort of defect in it. I think that this is often a crutch that is leaned on when you have unlikely sequences of events occur and the “sometimes shit happens” explanation is unsatisfying.

Arsenal are still in the strongest position for any team in the League.

They are the bookies favorite, my model will run tonight (updates will be posted here as well as online and, in the discord), and I am fairly confident it will still show Arsenal with the advantage here, Arsenal still control their own destiny here and don’t need anyone else to help them win this title.

It feels bad right now but it’s not so dire and the good thing about a packed schedule is that we don’t have to stew on this result for too much longer with a big North London Derby ahead on Sunday.

Be nice to each other and stay sane.

Because UEFA love adding randomness and excuse to hold a televised show where people grab and play with balls, we won’t have the full picture of how until tomorrow but we do know that it will be one of Atalanta, Leverkusen, Dortmund, or Olympiacos. All of these teams would present a challenge but will be a matchup where Arsenal are heavy favorites; there is no potential PSG bogey team here like what bit Liverpool last season. There will be more on this when the matchups are set for sure.

Rather than spend too much time on a match that was overall pretty meaningless and I think has very few things to take away I am going to take a wider view and look back on the League Phase as a whole here.

Here is a quick set of the stats from Arsenal 3 (3.5)-(1.3) 2 Kairat Almaty before we dig deeper.

If you missed it or want to see the full visuals from the match, they are all posted in the discord channel (that is where I post everything for every match as well).

League Phase: The Debrief

8 - Wins for Arsenal, this is only the second season with this format, but Arsenal became the first team to win every match in the League phase

1 - Match where Arsenal failed to win by at least 2 goals. It is a funny old game that this just happened in the last match against the lowest rated team Arsenal faced in the competition.

+19 - Goal difference for Arsenal, the best of any team and beat second place Bayern Munich by 5 goals

+14.3 - Arsenal’s expected goal difference, this ended up second best with Liverpool’s big win in the final match seeing them overtake Arsenal.

0 - Matches where the opposition created more expected goals than Arsenal. There was just one match where the margin was below +0.5 (away to Inter)

The League phase of the Champions League this season has been a nice change of pace to the relentless pressure and grind that has been the Premier League season. I was optimistic about the changes to the new single table and Swiss format, and I have to say that now having gone through it twice, I very much enjoy it.

Overall, I really like that this is now 8 matches against 8 different teams. The old version of playing home and away against 3 teams had the nice benefit of getting more familiar with a few teams but it could also feel a bit repetitive to play the same teams. This is especially true for matches that I have watched as a neutral and I like that there has been more variety and interesting matches to choose from. The final day also presented excellent drama that the old group stage never matched.

I think that there is a problem with the number of matches played and the Champions League expansion has not helped that, but I also understand the reality and the pressure that UEFA faced for why it went that direction. It’s not perfect, but it is an improvement and I am glad that we have gotten this change.

Getting a bit more into the details a good place I like to start is looking at the overall weighted xG and goals graphic.

This for me consistently does a nice job of separating out teams into the good relative tiers. Arsenal end up in the top right corner and based on the consistency across the overall phase that is a fair reflection of this team.

17 - Goals from open play, 2nd (to Bayern) among all teams in the Champions League

15.2 - Expected goals from open play, 2nd (to Bayern) among all teams in the Champions League

97 - Shots from open play, 89 from regular play (8th) and another 8 from fast break opportunities (2nd). 8th most overall for shots among all teams in the Champions League.

5 - Goals from set plays, 2nd (to Liverpool) among all teams in the Champions League

5.0 - Expected goals from set plays, 2nd (to Liverpool) among all teams in the Champions League

36 - Shots from set plays, 2nd (to Liverpool) among all teams in the Champions League

4 - Goals allowed total (3 non-penalty), the fewest among all teams in the Champions League

4.9 - Expected goals from open play allowed, 3rd fewest among all teams in the Champions League

65 - Shots from open play allowed, this is a bit surprising, but this ranks only 10th best.

8 - Big chances allowed by Arsenal, this is the fewest among all teams in the Champions League

One of the big things that made the Champions League a breath of fresh air was that it was a reprieve from playing the well drilled and much tougher lower blocks of the Premier League.

Arsenal have seen their attacking numbers take a big jump when playing in these matches. You can see this basically across the board for the Premier League teams, Premier League teams are up on average for 17% on non-pen xG, 27% on non-pen goals, and 22% on open play xG.

The tactics are a part of it but it’s also a reflection that like it or not, the Premier League has more or less turned into the Super League. You can see this in the latest financial results that were published in the Deloitte Money League, where 9 of the top 20 are Premier League teams and there are another 6 in spots 21-30. You can see this in the Champions League table as well, with all 6 teams advancing and with 5 placed in the top 8 spots.

This is reflected in the bookies odds to win the Champions League as well, Arsenal are the current favorite (still pretty long at 4.75) and other Premier League teams round out half of the top 8 in the odds.

We all have experience with these knock out tournaments to know that even if you start off favored or in the best position, the randomness can get you and the best team in the group stage isn’t always the one that even advances deep into the knockout stages, let alone wins it.

That being said, this Arsenal team might be the best set up that they ever have been to try and win this trophy.

In the summer I could feel that this season was going to be a tense one. It has gone pretty darn well, especially considering the injuries that Arsenal have had to contend with but that has not stopped any minor bump in the road from turning into a potential meltdown.

My worry that the negativity and frustration would continually bubble up has borne out and even though I have expected it, it can still be a pain to deal with it.

I can understand the frustration and disappointment; I share that feeling at times and especially after dropped points. What is harder to deal with is that things so often go into overdrive and not sharing the same feelings that everything is going wrong and that the team is doomed feels like an outlier position.

Taking a tiny step back and you can see that Arsenal finds themselves in a great position regardless of the disappointing dropped points.

They are top of the table, they have a 7-point lead over second, they have the best goal difference, and the best expected goals difference. They have by far the best defensive record and compliment that with the second/third-best attacking numbers in the league. On top of that, the team has a lead in a semifinal, is top of the Champions League and have advanced to the 4th round of the FA Cup for the first time since 2023.

It is no one’s ideal to see Arsenal drop points, let alone see it happen three times in short span but putting that into context of still managing to gain ground on rivals softens the blow.

We’d all like to see Arsenal with a bigger and more comfortable lead but even with a touch of a stumble, Arsenal did not get punished.

Let’s get more into this specific match and break it down a bit more.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: The Graphics

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: The Debrief

15 - Shots for Arsenal

4 - Big chances for Arsenal in this match

6 - Shots for Arsenal that were rated as 20% or better scoring opportunities

0.15 - The average shot quality for Arsenal in this match, that would be the third highest this season and the highest with at least 15 shots taken.

There is a lot of frustration with this match and that is understandable, with Manchester City losing unexpectedly and Arsenal facing the team in 17th place that felt like a big +3 point swing all but sewn up. That didn’t pan out in this match and that is going to be painful because it feels like something taken away.

I definitely felt the frustration post-match but more because this can a stupid sport sometimes that doesn’t always reward teams for how well they play than thinking that this was a putrid performance.

You can’t perfectly go back and counter factual a match but given the quality of shots that Arsenal had in this match, this turns in a goal scored more than 90% of the time and is multiple goals 70% of the time.

If Arsenal do put away one of the chances that they have who knows what happens after. The chances were there for Arsenal to have done it but it didn’t happen in this game.

I don’t think that Arsenal were fantastic here but this was far closer to a standard good performance for Arsenal this season than the disaster or embarrassment that this seems to be viewed as after the result.

Arsenal matched their season average of shots but averaged higher average quality. That made the xG higher than average, but it was negated with Arsenal only putting three shots on target here (with another that was in what I would classify as “close”).

Arsenal were not nearly as dominate at pushing Forest back into their box here posting one of their lowest field tilts of the season and that also was reflected with significantly more time in the defensive and middle thirds.

This has been a new wrinkle that we have seen from Arteta against teams that are bunkered a bit more, trying to draw them out and open more space. I think you can say that it wasn’t massively effective and Forest were fine to let Arsenal have the ball out there and they would clog the middle of the pitch and hope for the best out wide.

Looking at what Arsenal did passing in the middle third it shows exactly this, Forest content to let Arsenal progress out wide but giving nothing in the middle or even the half spaces.

With Arsenal’s play further from goal than normal that changes the dynamics of who ends up on the ball. Of the more attacking/creative players only Noni Madueke ends up in the top five here (also there were more subs among this group).

This gives us a good bridge to talk about the captain in this match.

Odegaard ghosts

27 - Touches in this match. There have been just three instances where Odegaard has played 50+ minutes for Arsenal and had fewer touches, 24 vs Brighton last season (Red Card match), 21 at home vs Manchester City in January 2022 in a 2-1 loss, and 24 away against Manchester City in August 2021 in a 5-0 loss.

21 - Pass Attempts (9th on Arsenal), 18 passes completed for 85.7% pass completion percentage with a 110.1% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

1 - Final 3rd Entry Passes

2 - Progressive Passes

2 - Box Entry Passes

1 - Key Pass for 0.18 xA

0 - Shots taken

0 - Dribbles Completed out of 1 attempted, plus 1 time fouled.

1 - Deep Touch

0 - Interceptions, blocked passes, or fouls

1 - Ball recovery

This was a poor outing from Odegaard, he was effectively marked out of the game by Forest and he never found a way to get on the ball nor was he able to effectively take up space in dangerous areas. He was rightly taken off early in this match and this is the type of match where the expectations are that he will be able to provide more as one of the main creators for the team.

He is the captain of the team and one of the leaders, but that doesn’t make him immune from criticism. This is a match where he was well off his best and didn’t have it. Maybe he’s feeling the effects of the busy schedule and needs a match off but regardless we expect him to provide more here.

This performance has re-ignited the discussion around his role and place in the team. That’s fine and I think that on the totality he’s still been the best option for the role. This has also brought people back to the period with him injured and re-spinning this period.

Arsenal did an amazing job to be able to cope with the injuries and pick up points over this period. This has been reinterpreted as Arsenal played great free flowing attacking football over that period and that just isn’t true at all. There is no way to do a controlled experiment to isolate a single players impact, but the evidence pretty strongly suggests that with him, Arsenal are a better attack (not quite as clear about absolutely better, but I’d lean that way).

This run featured some great performances from Arsenal, they beat Atletico and Tottenham by large margins, and he came back into the team just as the team put a legit claim to best team in the world with a convincing win against Bayern.

In this period without Odegaard, Arsenal leaned into the strengths that they had and played lock down defensive football, going on a crazy defensive run that saw them not allow a shot on target over the course of a full month. This was the height of the concern about Arsenal ruining the game with set plays and the seemingly never-ending worry about the open play creation where they were averaging under 1 open play expected goal.

I said at the time that I did not care particularly about open play vs set play and that remains true. What matters is creating more than your opposition because that is the best way to win matches in the long term. I loved all of those wins but I can’t help but be a bit annoyed that many of the same people that were leading the charge that Arsenal were boring are not changing their story that period was actually great.

That period was great, this period ain’t so bad either. I am sure this won’t be the last of it.

Getting Comfortable with Rotation

3 - Changes for Arsenal from their last match in the Premier League

2 - Changes for Arsenal from their last match against Chelsea in the League Cup semi-final

7 - Changes for Arsenal from the match at the last weekend against Portsmouth in the FA Cup third round.

One of the last things that I want to highlight here is that Arsenal have rotated over this December/January period and while that is what many fans say they want to see, what they really seem to mean is that the team should be able to rest players and there be zero drop off and if there is well then you should not have done that.

Most fans are inherently irrational, and that is okay. I do hope that fans that read this newsletter are a bit more rational and can try not to hold too many mutually exclusive thoughts in their heads at the same time.

Arsenal have been burned by trying to rely on a small squad in the past, that has led to accusations that Mikel Arteta has run his players into the ground (especially Saka). One of the major departures in team building philosophy from Arsenal this season has been to make the squad larger with more talent deeper into the depth chart.

This also plays into the demand for seeing the club win silverware and the discussion about Arsenal’s repeated failure at the semi-final stage of competitions.

Arsenal seemingly chose to go closer to full strength this week in the first leg of their semi-final against Chelsea and showing a willingness to trust the squad against Forest. The big rotation was Bukayo Saka, and this was a continued trend where in this busy festive period, he has not started three matches in a row.

I am a certified not rater of the League Cup, it is the least important of the competitions that Arsenal are in this season. I don’t measure success on winning trophies because it is a noisy and unreliable indicator of how well a team is doing, so I have never been a “Arsenal must win a trophy” guy.

All that being made clear, if you get to a semi-final of a competitions, I have no problem with the team taking it seriously. Winning trophies might be a less-than-ideal measure for if a team is doing well or not, but they are still kind of the point of why the matches are played. Winning a trophy is a great memory and experience, we should try to have more of those.

I won’t be complaining about the decision to tilt things that way on how the lineups were picked. Maybe you could talk me into how the profile of players suited the matches that they played in but I think that is largely a marginal issue. I think that maybe Trossard vs Chelsea and Martinelli vs Forest was backwards given the styles of the matches. I think maybe you could have asked if the chance to try something like an Eze in left midfield could have been tried against a team like Forest compared to the standard midfield. Ultimately, I am not so confident that is the case to make it a major deal.

I would make the case further, that we as fans will need to be able to get more comfortable that there will be changes that we don’t always like (just like there won’t be wholesale rotation when some might want it).

On that note, hopefully Arsenal can get back to winning ways on Tuesday with a lineup that I am sure will be too strong for some fans.

What a game.

No more preamble here today because there is too much good analysis to get into here. I really really really enjoyed this match.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa: The Graphics

Arsenal vs Aston Villa: The Debrief

22 - Shots for Arsenal, this is the third match in a row where Arsenal have taken 20 or more shots

7 - Shots on target for Arsenal, this is the third match in a row where they have put at least 6 on target

3.6 - Expected goals for Arsenal, this is the third match in a row where Arsenal have produced at least 2.7 expected goals

6 - Big chances for Arsenal, this is the third match in a row where Arsenal have had at least 4 big chances in a match

There are few better feelings when you are doing analysis, and you see lots of people freaking out and you can calmly point out in the data that the world is not falling down (and hopefully help some people that were feeling anxious).

It doesn’t always work out quite this perfectly, but with Arsenal having just gone through a cold finishing run where they produced good numbers but with some weirdness, good goalkeeping, and own goals being scored didn’t turn that into actual goals scored by their own players.

Everything in the data was pointing in the direction that this was not something that should be causing worry but that doesn’t stop Arsenal fans (which I totally understand with the pressure of a title race). It wasn’t just that this was not something to worry about but rather that this was a positive signal for Arsenal that they were coming out of their attacking injury crisis and starting to generate the volume of good chances that you want to see.

If Arsenal just kept doing what they were doing the goals were going to come and come they did here with Arsenal putting four past a team that has grown into a bit of a rival and thorn in our sides.

Arsenal’s commitment to pressing pays dividends

15 - High starts for Arsenal in this match

59.8 - Average possession starting position for Arsenal in this match

38 - Final third pass attempts by Aston Villa up to the 78th minute, they had 25 in the final period after Arsenal had scored their 4th

0.98 - Aston Villa’s pass efficiency in their own half up to the 78th minute.

I am by no stretch of the imagination a tactics person but from what I have read and seen about Aston Villa, that while they are comfortable being out of possession they will still play out from the back and look to use their quick combinations to move the ball up the field in create opportunities.

I think that you can try to counter this by dropping off quickly and limiting the space that they want to attack or you have to really commit to the press and force them to make mistake or to slow down and work to get the ball up the field.

The first half for Arsenal saw them look to press high up the field but things were not quite 100% perfect. Aston Villa were able to work the ball through the press and created a few dangerous moments, including a very good shot in the 18th minute for Ollie Watkins and a few Amadou Onana runs through midfield.

As the first half went on Arsenal were able to establish a bit more control and that continued on into the second half. This also was a good illustration that having control and dictating a match doesn’t always have to mean having the ball and I think we got to see a bit of both of that in this match.

Arsenal had more of the ball as we got into the later parts of the first half and used that to grab more territory. After the opening goal the possession switched towards Aston Villa but Arsenal’s defensive shape and pressing kept them pinned in where they could not threaten Arsenal’s goal.

Onana coming off at halftime was a big blow to Aston Villa but there is a lot of credit that should go to Arsenal and Mikel Arteta who got the team set up well to nullify what Aston Villa wanted to do and it paid dividends. From the 26th minute where Onana got treatment and there was a break where Arteta was able to talk with his players to the 4th goal it was all Arsenal.

9 shots to 2

2.2 xG to 0.1

4 big chances to 0

99 final third touches to 38

22 touches in the box to 6

For all of the talk about one of these managers being the master at in game adjustments, it looked like this time it wasn’t Emery, and it was instead Arteta who was able to make a change that made the difference.

Odegaard continues to shine

50 - Pass Attempts (1st on Arsenal), 42 passes completed for 84.0% pass completion percentage with a 110.9% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

7 - Progressive Passes (1st on Arsenal)

3 - Key Passes

0.56 - xA

5 - Shots (1st on Arsenal), 2 on target for 0.32 expected goals.

1 - Dribbles Completed out of 1 attempted, plus 1 times fouled.

6 - Progressive Carries

3 - Carry into Final Third

3 - Progressive Passes Received

5 - Final Third Entry Pass Received

6 - Touches in the box

2 - Tackles with 3 attempts plus 3 fouls committed

2 - Interceptions

6 - Ball Recoveries (1st on Arsenal)

0.93 - Goal Probability Added (1st on Arsenal)

There has been a lot of talk about him in the lead to when he was coming back from injury and in the matches just after his return; has the club evolved past him? is he redundant in the midfield? can he produce enough in the final third compared to other options?

His performances the last few matches have gone a long way towards answering these questions.

Leo Trossard keeps making me eat the humble pie

34 - Pass Attempts (6th on Arsenal), 29 passes completed for 85.3% pass completion percentage with a 115.5% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

4 - Progressive Passes

4 - Box Entry Pass

2 - Key Passes

4 - Shots (2nd on Arsenal), 2 on target for 0.61 expected goals.

11 - Progressive Carries

5 - Progressive Passes Received

12 - Final Third Entry Pass Received

7 - Deep Touches

2 - Tackles plus 3 fouls committed

2 - Ball Recoveries

2 - Clearances

0.80 - Goal Probability Added

I tooted my own horn a bit above and I have to raise my hand with Trossard here and say I didn’t see this coming. My summer thoughts that he could be or should be looked to be moved on or at the least should not have had his contract improved looks silly.

Trying to make the connection that he is getting paid more is what led to this is tough; it also goes against the whole contract year type stuff where after getting paid players do worse, but he also didn’t get extra years so maybe that cancels it out? I don’t know but man I am glad that he is here right now and playing at a ridiculously high level.

Arsenal targeted the Aston Villa right side with Matty Cash out and they found a ton of joy going down this side, with Trossard putting together an excellent performance.

The goal that he scores in this match is so well taken and it really helps his reputation as one of the best finishers in this squad. The way that he bends it around the defender but also uses him to shield it from Emi Martinez is just perfect. It is not the most ridiculous skill you’ll ever see but it is executed perfectly.

It is similar on the assist for Jesus; that’s not the hardest pass you’ll ever see but he has the timing just right on the break and puts it in the spot where Jesus doesn’t need to think and can just let instinct take over.

Arsenal have an embarrassment of riches for the left-wing option and right now there is just little debate on who on merit is deserving of playing these matches, with everyone else left to fight over given Leo a breather.

Is Viktor Gyökeres making an impact even without scoring?

5 - Pass Attempts (13th on Arsenal), 3 passes completed for 60.0% pass completion percentage with a 73.4% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

3 - Shots (3rd on Arsenal), 0 on target for 0.37 expected goals.

0 - Dribbles Completed out of 2 attempted, plus 1 times fouled.

9 - Passes Received

5 - Progressive Passes Received

3 - Final Third Entry Pass Received

3 - Pass in the box Received

4 - Touches in the box

1 - Dispossessed

1 - Miscontrolled Passes

0 - Tackles

2 - Fouls

0 - Interceptions

-0.11 - Goal Probability Added

Arsenal’s striker signing this summer was always going to be a player that got a lot of scrutiny. There were lots of options and there weren’t many that were slam dunk, can’t miss types of players out there.

We have now hit the midway mark of the season, and we are getting to the point where the sample size is large enough to have some first real takeaways from his time at Arsenal.

So far it’s been not going perfect, to say things nicely.

This something Adam and I talked about on the last podcast but compared to expectations, even tempered ones that heavily discounted his play in Portugal, he has not been at the level that you would have hoped he could be at.

Here is my weekly update for him looking at the shot and goal production:

The shot numbers are picking up a bit, the expected goals aren’t that far off but overall, it’s just been below what you would want to see from a low touch player whose main value is supposed to be what he does inside of the box.

The shooting locations have been good, the volume of shots (which was supposed to be a plus) and the finishing/execution have been lacking.

There are some caveats here that can help him, he did have an injury that came at an inopportune time to where he was starting to round into some form and perhaps that is coming back now after he has put up back-to-back 3 shot matches.

One of the things that has also circulated that looks to show his impact is that with him in the team, Arsenal have played better than they have without him in the team.

The with and without stats can be tough for soccer because this is such a low scoring sport and the number of combinations are smaller than in other sports but I do like to look at these numbers. I take them with a grain of salt, especially for players with lots of minutes or very few minutes.

In this match I thought it was an improvement on his previous outings. The runs to my untrained eye looked better and less like he was hiding. It also wasn’t perfect and his ability to hold up play or be a participant outside of the box is still a weakness.

His weaknesses so far don’t look to have manifested into Arsenal looking like they are playing significantly worse without him, but that can also be a reflection that for this season there has not been another real viable option at striker. This will be something that we continue to watch.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas if you celebrated it or if you didn’t that you are having a nice end to the year. It has been a busy one for me but it feels good to have the chance to get back to “normal” writing and doing analysis of Arsenal after a match.

It wasn’t always super comfortable in this match and that made it feel closer than it actually was, but I think that gives us an opportunity to dig deep into what was an interesting match that sees Arsenal maintain their position on top of the Premier League table.

Arsenal vs Brighton: The Graphics

Arsenal vs Brighton: The Debrief

After a bit of a lull with players out injured, Arsenal have come back with back-to-back very good attacking performances. This match was one of the statistically strongest that Arsenal have put together in the Premier League this season.

24 - Shots for Arsenal in this match, the most from Arsenal in a Premier League match this season

6 - Shots from fast breaks, the most from Arsenal in a Premier League match this season. Arsenal overall generated 22 shots from open play and 2.0 xG.

6 - Shots on target for Arsenal in this match

4 - Big chances in this match (none converted, Gyokeres 2’, Zubimendi 44’, Trossard 44’, Martinelli 85’)

52 - Touches in the box, the most from Arsenal in a Premier League match this season

183 - Touches in the final third, this was only 8th most for Arsenal this season

28% - The percentage of the final third touches that were inside the box

Arsenal in this match really did a good job of taking the space that Brighton allowed and turned that into one of the strongest attacking displays of the season.

All that was missing was the big scoreline to go with it and that can be frustrating but what will likely be a theme for this newsletter, this is the opposite of concerning and should make us feel better about the trend for Arsenal.

Arsenal and finishing

On the Opta xG model, Arsenal finished yesterday’s match 2.5 to 0.9 and that has people talking about finishing because Arsenal only turned that into 1 goal scored (plus an own goal).

My own model had this one at 2.2 expected goals and looking at how this could have played out given the chances the odds of a big scoreline were there and this is something that we have seen before from Arsenal, where they take a 2 expected goal game and turn it into 3, 4, or 5 goals.

Here it was just the one and while that isn’t the most common occurrence, it also isn’t a major outlier compared to what you would expect.

I made the point in my first thoughts that I wasn’t worried about finishing and that I was happier to see a positive trend for chance creation. That got people telling me that this happens to Arsenal more often than other teams and there is reason to be worried because this is part of a larger trend.

Teams like Manchester City just don’t have these kinds of matches.

Thankfully these are things that we can look up and we don’t have to rely on our feelings. Here is what the actual numbers show. All data here comes from the always invaluable Stathead tool by FBref:

If we start at using the match against Brighton as the baseline (-1.5 on xG) here is how things look for the Premier League going back to the 2022/23 season:

It has happened to Arsenal three times in this span, and that includes this match, so it was just twice before here.

If we compare against our rivals who are thought of as clinical as Manchester City they have had it happen 8 times in this same span. Chelsea and Liverpool have been the worst at this.

Maybe you’re thinking to yourself, Scott that is too big of a number there and the problem and you need to take out penalties because one miss can distort things.

Those are fair things to wonder, and I am nothing if not here to serve by looking up more and more scenarios. Here is what it looks like at a 1 goal or worse underperformance of non-penalty expected goals over the same time frame.

Arsenal have more of these situations, but they are still 12th overall in this period for the total number of matches and they also have the highest points per match in these games which is not what you’d expect if this is a unique issue for Arsenal.

Almost any way you want to try and slice this data it comes out showing that there is no real unique systemic issue here for Arsenal and having matches where they fail to convert their chances.

If we stick with the -1 npxG level and go to the start of Arteta’s time Arsenal are 10th with 31 matches (City with 40, Liverpool 54, Chelsea 54), if we want to say it is only a recent problem and focus on the last two seasons Arsenal are 6th with 10 matches (City with 9, Liverpool 11, Chelsea 12).

Saka’s Performance is polarizing

7 - Shots (1st on Arsenal), 2 on target for 0.41 expected goals.

31 - Pass Attempts (8th on Arsenal), 22 passes completed for 71.0% pass completion percentage with a 100.5% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

1 - Progressive Pass

2 - Box Entry Pass

3 - Key Passes

0.69 - xA (1st on Arsenal)

3 - Dribbles Completed out of 7 attempted, plus 1 time fouled.

15 - Progressive Carries with 9 carries into the box and 4 carries into the final third

31 - Passes Received

8 - Progressive Passes Received

6 - Final Third Entry Pass Received

16 - Touches in the box (1st on Arsenal)

2 - Tackles, 0 times dribbled past and 0 fouls committed

2 - Interceptions plus Blocked Passes

5 - Ball Recoveries

0.88 - Goal Probability Added (1st on Arsenal)

Online isn’t always real life but it is one of the main ways that I interact with Arsenal as a fan thousands of miles away and one of the things that I have seen pop up on social media (partially driven by other club trolls) and on other podcasts is a growing criticism of Bukayo Saka.

Much of it is end product driven. He’s scored 4 goals (3 non-penalty) and added just 2 assists this season in the Premier League and added 2 goals (1 non-penalty) and an assist in the Champions League. That’s just 0.35 non-penalty goals and assists per 90 this season between the two big competitions that Arsenal are in. This is coming off of him scoring just 2 non-penalty goals (1 in the PL and 1 in the CL) last season after his return from injury.

Given that he went down injured in December of last year that gives you a calendar year with just 8 non-penalty goals and assists in 2,384 minutes played between the PL and CL.

If you are one of those people that look at this and say you’d expect more from Saka, that is not unfair. Saka is arguably Arsenal’s best player, and less arguably Arsenal’s best attacking player. I would feel confident that he expects more from himself as well, so again I don’t think that this is necessarily a bad opinion to hold or something that is a problem to point out.

Where things potentially get a bit dicey is talking about what comes next, is this a problem? Does he need to do something different? This is where I think the analysis can get sloppy and I think that this match can be a good example of things as a microcosm of the larger discussion.

He’s the player that most things run through in the attacking portion of the pitch. Since he returned from injury, he leads Arsenal in final third touches (651, next is Rice at 555 and then Trossard at 506) and touches in the box (138, next is Trossard at 110 and Martinelli at 86).

It was the same in this match where he led the team in both. One of the things that I have seen is then well he should be giving us more and doing better from this volume.

Overall, in this match he was one of Arsenal’s most productive players. He had 7 shots and 4 key passes total, adding 6 total shot creating actions. This wasn’t just empty shot contribution either with a total of 1.1 xG plus xA here.

Looking at how his actions change Arsenal’s overall probability of scoring he again shines with his overall production here.

This isn’t to say that he didn’t have any mistakes or that he had perfect decision making either. Some of the decisions to shoot were perhaps worthy of a second guess versus looking for a pass but at least for me, I don’t think that there was anything egregious here (especially considering that lately his passes across the face have not been attacked with the hoped for aggression from his teammates).

The execution of the shots wasn’t as good as we have seen it in the past, his two shots on target were both right at the keeper, he had another shot from a good zone for him that he didn’t connect with and it sailed high and wide. It happens and shooting is hard; you would obviously prefer better execution from a player but given his history playing for Arsenal I don’t think that I am revising my view on his ability to strike the ball based on this.

There isn’t a massive miss in this catalog of shots, and most times this is a 0-goal outing given that most of these were in the 8-15% range for being scored.

Overall, my philosophy, especially looking at a single match is to care more about volume and being able to create and get into positions to create shooting chances for yourself or a teammate than the final execution.

Execution matters, but my view is that you probably don’t get to the Premier League level (or stay there) if you are especially bad at execution and judging this is something that takes looking at many matches, this makes it fine as a description of what happens but poor for using a single match to help you to make good analysis that would be forward looking.

This ties in with the longer view of his end product, again 0.3 non-penalty goals and assists per 90 is not what anyone things should be Saka’s level of production. He should be producing more and when you look at the shots and passes that he has completed or taken that shows up to where he is at 0.72 non-penalty goals and assists per 90 since he has come back from injury and that would put him among the elite wingers if he and his teammates (the bigger factor here) had converted as expected.

Ultimately, I see this as a positive outing from Saka and believe that if he plays like this on a consistent basis, he is one of the best players in the world and you won’t hear too much negative from me.

I had built up some nerves about this match in the week leading up to it. I knew that Arsenal were the better team but the classic “anything can happen in a derby” plus Arsenal not having a fully fit team allowed a bit of doubt to creep in for me.

With hindsight that all looks so silly but maybe that nervous energy made it all the sweeter as Arsenal played one of their best matches of the season. This also capped a wonderful weekend overall and looked like a special day for the players and the fans.

One of the great moments in a season that keep us hooked to this sport.

If you’re into listening to a bit more of a breakdown Adam and I did a podcast after the match yesterday.

Let’s get into this wonderful victory.

Arsenal vs Tottenham: The Graphics

Arsenal vs Tottenham: The Debrief

4 - Goals scored by Arsenal, all from open play (really ruining the Set Play FC name). This is the most open play goals for Arsenal since April 20th last season against Ipswich (red card aided). Before that it was the 7-1 win in the Champions League in March or in the Premier League it was the 5-1 win against Manchester City.

16 - The number of times that Arsenal have scored 4+ goals in the Premier League since 2023/24, that is tied for the most with Manchester City.

17 - Shots from Arsenal, that is the second match in a row hitting 17 and that 5th this season with 17 or more. Arsenal have now moved up to 2nd in the total shots taken table behind Liverpool by 6 total shots.

8 - Shots on target for Arsenal, this is tied for the most this season with the match against Athletic Madrid.

Hanging four goals on a rival, especially one that came in with a respectable goals allowed record goes a long way to shutting up some of the complaints that we as fans had. Especially, when they come from open play and that was one of the sticks that was used to beat Arsenal.

While this was a good performance and the ball went in the net which makes it so much fun, the positive here is that this isn’t some sort of outlier for what Arsenal have done this season. This is a good but not all that different than the average Arsenal attacking performance from Arsenal.

Arsenal in this match did the boa constrictor move on Tottenham, who seemed to invite that upon themselves in a silly tactical choice. Arsenal had one of their stronger days on field tilt (which is especially impressive given the score effects) and pushed basically all of the play into the Tottenham defensive third.

52% - The share of Tottenham’s touches that were in their defensive third (264 out of 506). They had 94 touches in their own box in this match which is double the number that they had in the final third (46).

This level of control and the pressing made this one of the most complete performances we have seen from Arsenal this season.

Arsenal gave up a goal here and that sort of puts a blemish on the overall defensive part of the game, but it really shouldn’t. We have become so used to seeing Arsenal do this that it doesn’t feel out of the ordinary anymore but even here this was a pretty special day for Arsenal looking at the defensive statistics.

It is also fun to look at this graphic, it is becoming the norm now that while Arsenal look great defensively, when teams come up against Arsenal, they have one of their worst days out trying to attack.

4 - Touches in the box for Tottenham, this is the fewest they have had since 2021 against Crystal Place.

46 - Touches in the final third in the whole match (just 11 in the first half), the fewest since May last season against Brighton, and Feb 2022 before that against Manchester City.

3 - Shots for Tottenham, this is the fewest they have had in well just a couple of weeks where they had 3 at home against Chelsea.

0.1 - The expected goals for Tottenham (rounding up here to the tenth spot), the lowest output again since that 2021 match against Crystal Palace.

This Arsenal team is damn good.

Eberechi Eze has a day to remember

6 - Shots (1st on Arsenal), 4 on target for 0.55 expected goals.

3 - Goals scored, Arsenal’s first ever NLD hat trick

25 - Pass Attempts (8th on Arsenal), 20 passes completed for 80.0% pass completion percentage with a 99.2% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

1 - Progressive Pass completed

1 - Key Pass for 0.34 xG assisted

3 - Dribbles Completed out of 3 attempted, plus 2 times fouled.

1 - Time dispossessed

3 - Progressive Carries including 2 carries into the box

26 - Passes Received

4 - Progressive Passes Received

7 - Touches in the box

10 - Deep Touches

1 - Tackle out of 2 attempted

2 - Interceptions

4 - Ball Recoveries

I have written quite a bit lately on the different way that Eze has gone about playing the more advanced midfielder role at Arsenal lately, this was another good example of it but in this match the difference shows the major upside that he can bring to a match. With Arsenal playing another match without a real striker, that puts the onus on the rest of the players to take on more responsibility to do striker type things and that is something that suites the strength of Eze much more than when he needs to do more ball progression from this position.

In this match, we saw each of Eze, Mikel Merino, Leandro Trossard, and Bukayo Saka take up positions that you would associate with a striker and that caused lots of problems for the Tottenham defense as they struggled to know when to stick and when to follow players.

Eze here (and Trossard) were often players that took up the most advanced positions. Looking at the average touch map, Eze’s were on average the furthest forward and the most central.

He took these positions and turned that into an impressive 6 shots. His shot volume was one of the pluses when Arsenal brought him in and it paid massive dividends today, especially with Tottenham coming in as one of the team’s weakest at blocking shots (just 25 this season, only Brighton have fewer and they are blocking just 17% of their shots faced so far).

This is the type of performance that just warms the soul, you could see how much it meant to him and that is something that you can’t help but feel good about. A day that he and all of us fans will long remember.

Rice is the secret sauce that makes Arsenal’s boa constrictor tactics work

65 - Pass Attempts (2nd on Arsenal), 49 passes completed for 75.4% pass completion percentage with a 100.4% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

6 - Final 3rd Entry Passes, led Arsenal

6 - Progressive Passes, led Arsenal

4 - Box Entry Passes completed, led Arsenal

3 - Key Passes for 0.58 xA, led Arsenal

1 - Shot, 1 on target for 0.34 expected goals. (he hit it too pure!)

3 - Progressive Carries

3 - Tackles with 1 time dribbled Past and 2 fouls committed

2 - Blocked Passes

6 - Ball Recoveries, 2nd on Arsenal

3 - Clearances

3 - Aerial Duel Won out of 3 contested

One of the takeaways that I had from looking at how Arsenal have changed since Odegaard has been out, is that Rice has been a player that has taken a major step forward. This was another match where I just came away so appreciative of having him in the midfield covering every blade of grass.

His adaption into a more double pivot role has unlocked him to be on the ball more and has put the silly idea that he can’t pass to rest. It hasn’t also stopped him from still flexing the ability to box crash that he has built playing a more advanced “8” role and offering attacking threat.

His partnership in midfield with Martin Zubimendi has just been fantastic and it really showed here with the two always seemingly in the right spot to be the first to any loose ball and launching Arsenal on another wave of attack.

Arsenal take advantage of rival’s dropped points

6 - Point gap to Chelsea, the gap to Chelsea in 2nd is larger than Chelsea’s gap to 11th place right now. Arsenal face them next with a chance to push the lead against them further, they are still one of the tougher teams to judge this season.

7 - Point gap to Manchester City, Manchester City lost for the 4th time already this season. Pep City teams have lost more than 4 times just 4 times, they have won the title in those season’s just once (6 losses in 2020/21 winning 86 points). This team still scares me because they have Pep and always can spend more money but this team still has flaws that the previous teams didn’t.

11 - Point gap to Liverpool. Yikes. Liverpool are 6 points worse this season than they were compared to the same fixtures last season, that is with a 12-goal difference swing to the negative (-3.6 on xG difference).

It was a big weekend for Arsenal.

That match was an emotional gut punch, and you never want a gut punch that you have to live with for two weeks because of an International Break.

This was the first time that Arsenal have dropped points from a winning position (they also fought back from a losing position) but while it was frustrating to not win, overall I came away impressed with Arsenal here.

I know that there will be a lot of people down after this one but it still has some good positives. Let’s break it down.

Sunderland vs Arsenal: The Graphics

Sunderland vs Arsenal: The Debrief

6 - Shots for Sunderland allowed by Arsenal, this is tied for the fewest by Sunderland this season and it is the 10th straight time this season that Arsenal have held an opponent to fewer than 10 shots.

0.79 - Expected goals on my model for Sunderland, going into this match Sunderland were averaging 1.1 xG per match. This is the 10th straight match this season that Arsenal have held the opposition to under 1 expected goal.

2 - Shots on target for Sunderland, they averaged 2.8 per match going into facing Arsenal. This is only the 5th time that Arsenal have allowed more than 1 shot on target this season.

2 - Goals scored by Sunderland

Sometimes this is just how the game goes. The term “A footballing” is a thing for this exact match.

It’s a testament to Arsenal’s defensive quality, that it takes a pretty big error to see the ball hit the back of the net but that is what it takes these days to score against Arsenal.

Arsenal’s defensive performance overall wasn’t that bad, in fact it was very much in line with what Arsenal have been doing all season. Looking at it stacked up against everything else the team has done, and this is far from an outlier in everything except for the goals allowed.

This is just the 13th time in the Premier League that Arsenal have given up multiple goals on 0.8 xG or lower under Mikel Arteta. This is out of 127 total matches in the Premier League (with 71 clean sheets).

It’s a bummer to see the clean sheet record end but it always was at some point. I just with it had been a garbage time goal with Arsenal on their way to a multiple goal romp.

Arsenal fight back well but they kind of threw away a half here

All stats here will be from the start of the second half through the 75th minute:

9 - Shots for Arsenal, for 0.9 expected goals. Arsenal had 9 shots in the other 60 minutes.

4 - Shots on target. Arsenal had 4 shots on target in the other 60 minutes.

2 - Shots allowed, for 0.15 xG.

15 - Touches in the box for Arsenal. Arsenal had 18 touches in the box in the other 60 minutes.

26 - Touches within 25 yards of goal. Arsenal had 26 in the other 60 minutes.

121 - Final third touches. They had 179 in the other 60 minutes.

2 - Touches in the box for Sunderland. They had 14(!) in the other 60 minutes of this match. Sunderland had just 3 within 25 yards of Arsenals’ goal (17 in the other periods) and 15 touches in the final third (79 in the other periods)

The performance from the start of the second half was significantly better and I would put it up among the best 30-minute stretches that Arsenal have had this season. It was the type of play that even with an injury depleted side, gave you optimism that this team has a lot of fight in it and quality.

They upped the speed and really pushed Sunderland back.

In stark contrast, the first half from Arsenal was one of the worst this season.

They did the thing where they felt out the game and seemed to be a bit passive trying to figure things out. That’s not always bad but it’s more of a “big game” tactic in my mind and that was not my view of this match.

The first half also seemed to play much more into Sunderland’s game model, it was a very start stop affair, and it was tough for Arsenal to get any sort of flow going. By my calculations, the ball was in play for just 23 minutes in the first half (even with the 7 minutes added on) and that was probably perfect for Sunderland.

This hasn’t been a major issue for Arsenal this season, the opening periods have been fairly productive:

• 0-15: 3.5 xG, 1.92 per 90

• 15-30: 2.3 xG, 1.24 per 90

• 30-end of 1st half: 3.7 xG, 2.01 per 90

• 1st half’s: 9.5 xG, 1.7 xG per 90

• 45-60: 4.7 xG,2.56 per 90

• 60-75: 2.0 xG, 1.09 per 90

• 75-end of match: 1.0 xG, 0.53 per 90

Bukayo Saka takes over

3 - Shots, 2 on target, 0.32 xG and 1 goal

45 - Pass Attempts, 38 passes completed for 84.4% pass completion percentage with a 107.7% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

48 - Passes received

13 - Final third passes received, including 5 progressive

7 - Touches in the box with 9 total within 25 yards of goal

1 - Dribble completed, out of 6 attempted

3 - Times fouled

2 - Tackles

3 - Clearances

8 - Ball recoveries

When your team is facing a tough day, you need your big players to step up. This is what Saka did here, and it was a massive positive sign for Arsenal. Since he has can back from his hamstring injury, he has looked like he is playing within himself a bit, giving just enough to be able to make it through.

Everything in this match flowed through him and he put the team on his back to help get them back into this one.

Leandro Trossard has earned his raise

44 - Pass Attempts (7th on Arsenal), 36 passes completed for 81.8% pass completion percentage with a 106.9% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

3 - Progressive Passes

4 - Deep Completions (not Cross)

1 - Key Pass, for 0.18 xA

1 - Shot, 1 on target for 0.02 xG and turned into 1 goal

3 - Progressive Passes Received

12 - Final Third Entry Pass Received

6 - Deep Touches

Since he has joined Arsenal in January of 2022, he ranks 13th among all players in goals plus assists over that period with 58.

He’s been an incredible end product guy, and he’s done it both finishing and setting up for his teammates. He has 34 goals (no penalties to boost it either) which ranks 13th over that span, and 24 assists which ranks 11th.

His goals and assists have been very impactful as well. 26 of his goals and assists have been ones that were potentially points changing type goals where the score was tied or Arsenal were down a goal, adding in ones that helped the team go from +1 to +2 we are getting 38 of his goals here.

His goal here put Arsenal in the lead, and it was so nice that it really ought to have been one that was a winner.

He was the consolation prize and backup plan for when Arsenal didn’t sign Mykhailo Mudryk at the time, but hindsight has borne out that Arsenal ended up signing a player that has been so much more than that.

As I said in my thoughts right at full time, there are no matches that you can take for granted in the Premier League. This league is tough top to bottom, with talent up and down the league that has risen with the financial power of the League as a whole.

We saw this in stark relief this weekend, with three of the favorites to finish in the top four this season all losing.

Arsenal did not have their best performance of the season, but they maintained a high enough level of play to scrap out a victory against a very good opposition. This win gave them seven in a row, put them up six points on Manchester City, seven points on Liverpool, and nine points on the same fixtures from last season.

Let’s dig into the meat of this interesting (but maybe not exciting) match.

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: The Graphics

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: The Debrief

378 - Touches in the middle third for Arsenal in this match against Crystal Palace, this is the 2nd most Arsenal have had in a match this season

140 - Touches in the final third for Arsenal, this is the 3rd fewest that Arsenal have had in a match (only United and Liverpool have been fewer)

49% - Of the play in this match happened in the middle third, this is the highest share of any match that Arsenal have had in a match this season

22% - Of the play in this match happened in Arsenal’s attacking third, the lowest share of any match for Arsenal this season.

This I think has to be the starting point for the discussion about this match.

What I say, and what the data shows very clearly here was that this was a match that through a combination of what both teams were trying to do, the ball was not ever really close to either team’s goal was extended periods in this match.

I have become more interested in looking at where team’s like to play and this match really stands out in this regard compared to what Arsenal (and Crystal Palace) have done this season.

Looking at all of the touches and the overall share of touches hammers this home. Arsenal had a bit more play in the final third but not so much that they overwhelmed or piled on the pressure on Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace, even when they were able to get a bit more a foothold in this match, did not or could not get the ball near Arsenal’s goal with any regularity.

This isn’t an every match tactic from Arsenal, and it does depend on the opposition, but I (and others) have noticed that there is a tweak to Arsenal where they are far more content to hold on to possession in the middle third of the pitch than they have been in the past.

In fact, they will do more than that, purposefully keeping the ball in these zones with the aim to pull the defense out on to them with the aim that this will open up space behind. Arsenal will take the bet that they will more often be able to handle and play through the pressure and be able to exploit the space created compared to how often they will lose the ball and leave themselves open for a transition opportunity.

In this match, Crystal Palace mostly did not take the bait coming on to Arsenal. Looking at the defensive actions, they seemed generally content to let Arsenal’s midfielders and center backs pass it around in the area around the halfway line. They did cut out passing lanes effectively and in the rare occasions that there Arsenal did find their way centrally in the final third, swarmed effectively to turn the ball over.

This was the major tactical chess match that I saw in this match and both teams were more successful on the defensive side of the nullification here.

Crystal Palace were incredibly disciplined and did not grant the space that Arsenal wanted.

Arsenal did not get impatient and force the play, leaving themselves exposed on the counter and the transitions that Crystal Palace hoped to take advantage of were kept to a minimum.

This made it so that the match as a spectacle was a bit lacking in highlights with just 7 open play shots between both teams and very little action around each box.

This has reignited the conversation about Arsenal’s open play attacking performance for better or worse.

25 - Touches in the box for Arsenal, the fewest since the Manchester United match this season and well below the season average coming into this match 36.6 per match

39 - Touches within 25 yards of goal, the fewest since week 1, and well below the season average coming into this match of 49.6 per match

10 - Total shots in this match for Arsenal, again the fewest since week 1. Well below the season average coming into this match of 15.4 per match

2 - Shots from open play in this match. The fewest Arsenal have had this season and well below the season average coming into this match of 9.6

I have written up my thoughts previously on the open play question, so I am not going to repeat myself again, this is also something that Adam has looked into further today and that is well worth your time to check out if you have not.

Arsenal’s numbers here weren’t pretty but I do believe that the issue here was that the game was not played in the boxes, rather it was in the middle third like I pointed out above.

Is Gabriel the best dual threat center back?

91 - Pass Attempts (1st on Arsenal), 82 passes completed for 90.1% pass completion percentage with a 104.4% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

5 - Final 3rd entry passes completed

2 - Progressive passes completed

5 - Long passes completed, for a 45.5% - Long pass completion percentage

1 - Key Passes for 0.28 xA

1 - Shot, 0 on target, 0.10 xG

2 - Touches in the box and 3 deep touches

0 - Times dispossessed

0 - Tackles (0 attempted) and 0 fouls committed

2 - Interceptions plus blocked passes

2 - Blocked shots

6 - Clearances

4 - Aerial duels won out of 8 aerial duels contested

There are very few players that are as much of a threat off of set plays as Gabriel. He didn’t get a goal here in this match, but he was again a major threat and has the ability to single handedly distort a team’s defense with his presence on any set play.

He backs this up with incredible defending and somehow still underrated passing skills. He’s made a strong case for himself as one of the best center backs in the world and is deserving of a lot more praise than he is getting from the outside of Arsenal ecosystem.

Mixed game for Eze, but he has the moment of magic to win it

2 - Shots (2nd on Arsenal), 1 on target, 0.10 xG, 1 goal

29 - Pass Attempts (7th on Arsenal), 22 passes completed for 75.9% pass completion percentage with a 92.5% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

4 - Final 3rd entry passes completed (6th on Arsenal)

2 - Progressive passes completed (5th on Arsenal)

1 - Box Entry Pass

0 - Key passes

25 - Passes Received (6th on Arsenal), 1 Miscontrolled pass

6 - Progressive Passes Received (2nd on Arsenal)

5 - Final Third entry pass received (3rd on Arsenal)

1 - Touch in the box

3 - Deep Touches, touches within 25 yards of goal (5th on Arsenal)

1 - Dribble Completed out of 2 attempted, 1 time fouled, 0 times dispossessed

5 - Progressive Carries (1st on Arsenal)

3 - Carries into Final Third (1st on Arsenal)

2 - Tackles, 0 times dribbled past, 1 foul committed

1 - Interceptions plus blocked pass

1 - Ball Recovery

Eberechi Eze is not Martin Odegaard. The way that he will and wants to play the right midfield “8”/”10” position is significantly different than how we have seen it played in the past.

This is something that I am adjusting to and I am sure that the Arsenal team is also doing that.

Eze is very good at finding and taking up positions in the pockets for others to find him and then trying to combine or create a chance. What he is not doing is taking up the ball progression load that Odegaard carries when he is playing this position.

One of the places that this shows up is that Eze’s pass combinations to the starting attackers was just 4 passes completed in this match, with just one pass completed to Bukayo Saka.

In a match where service into those congested central areas was hard to come by, it made it a tough match for Eze to impact the game from open play.

Yet, Eze still found a way and scored a goal that was pretty special and fairly unique to him amongst the players in this Arsenal squad.

These moments of magic were one of the big selling points for Eze, and he delivered in this match.

Zubimendi struggles to open up the mid-block

75 - Pass Attempts (2nd on Arsenal), 64passes completed for 85.3% pass completion percentage with a 99.4% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

8 - Fin 3rd Entry Passes completed (1st on Arsenal)

3 - Progressive Passes completed

2 - Deep Completions (not Cross)

1 - Key Pass for 0.02xA

5 - Progressive Carries

0 - Carries into Final Third

0 - Times Dispossessed, he completed no dribbles with 1 attempted, while drawing 1 foul

56 - Passes Received (3rd on Arsenal)

1 - Miscontrolled Passes

2 - Tackles out of 5 attempted, 2 times dribbled past 1 foul committed

2 - Interceptions plus blocked pass

4 - Ball Recoveries (4th on Arsenal)

6 - Clearances (1st on Arsenal)

3 - Aerial Duels Won out of 4 Aerial Duels contested

This is something that goes a bit along the lines of the Eze discussion and I believe that Martin Zubimendi is another player that is feeling the impact of missing Odegaard.

Without Odegaard there is a larger burden that falls on the shoulders of the Spainard and in this match, he struggled to find the key to unlock a very tough and very good Crystal Palace defense.

Zubimendi had the most passes attempted in the middle third of the pitch but was not able to turn that into anything incisive and he had a few passes that were uncharacteristically off leading to some of the few transition chances that Crystal Palace had in this match.

Some of this might have been the tactics that Arsenal were employing but there was also a distinct lack of ball progression in the midfield here with tons of sideways passing.

It’s unrealistic to expect a 8, 9, or 10/10 performance every week and this was an off one. The positives here is that even though he didn’t have his best match on the ball, he was still quite good and active at helping to keep Arsenal solid at the back and not let anything through.

Arsenal had a not so dissimilar match away at Fulham last season and that ended in a disappointing draw.

Over the last couple of years, Fulham (and teams like them) have been able to frustrate Arsenal breaking the game up with their physicality and not giving Arsenal any space by staying compact in the middle of the field.

They tried to trot out these same tactics again and Arsenal were able to overcome them coming away with a well-earned victory and an extra two points compared to what they got last season.

The performance fell short of perfect, but Arsenal now show more solutions against familiar low-block strategies.

Fulham vs Arsenal: The Graphics

Fulham vs Arsenal: The Debrief

3 - Teams that have gone to Craven Cottage and created 1.8 non-penalty xG or more going back to the start of the 2024-25 season. It’s Arsenal (twice), Manchester City (final match of the season last year with nothing to play for), and Bournemouth (December 2024 in a 2-2 thriller).

Fulham under Marco Silva would not be mistaken for a juggernaut but they have been a tough and competent team, especially at home. They don’t make things easy for teams and seem to sell out favoring stopping you, versus trying to create their own chances.

This Arsenal performance did not dazzle, but some of the reaction to the match seems to be a bit out of balance.

16 - Shots for Arsenal in this match, this is the 5th time this season that Arsenal have this number or better. Arsenal also took 12 shots from open play here. Ideally, we would still see a bit more from open play, but this is pretty solid.

1.9 - Expected goals for Arsenal in this match. This is now the 5th time this season that Arsenal have had 1.9 or more non-penalty xG in a match this season. After a slow start to the season, Arsenal have climbed to 5th in total xG this season.

45 - Touches in the box for Arsenal in this match. This is the second most that Arsenal have had this season and it is now three matches in a row where the team has hit 40 or more touches in the box.

278 - Arsenal’s total touches in the box this season, the most in the Premier League this season

Here is how this match against Fulham compares to what Arsenal have done this season.

It’s not spectacular but this was a pretty darn good overall performance. If Arsenal were to play at this level away against maybe all but the top 6-7 teams they will have put themselves in a strong position to win those matches, often by two plus goals.

It probably would have made us feel better if Arsenal had gotten a second goal and that would have probably been a fairer reflection of the chances created but sometimes that is how this funny old game goes.

What was able to make the single goal scored stand up as enough to win was another excellent day from Arsenal as a defensive unit.

It wasn’t perfect, with the first 20-25 minutes looking a bit shacky and sloppy but after the team grew into the match, Arsenal put the clamps on tight and allowed Fulham nothing.

After the 30th minute here is what Fulham did:

4 - Shots, 0 shots within the “danger zone”

0.2 - xG for those 4 shots

42 - Final third pass attempts

11 - Touches in the box

They could not generate any threat and that is even with Arsenal being willing to cede possession to Fulham a bit more after scoring.

The shot map from this match is a thing of beauty and is another in what is turning into an incredibly impressive campaign for the defense.

That gives a good transition into making a statement that it is probably too early in the season to be getting this bold but let’s go for it anyway…

Arsenal could challenge the best ever defenses this season

3 - Goals allowed for Arsenal this season in all competitions (All have come in the Premier League, with 0 allowed 3 matches in the Champions League and League Cup)

5 - Clean sheets out of 8 Premier League matches, and 8 out 11 total matches played this season

1 - Goal allowed from open play this season

Arsenal are off to a flying start defensively this season and while we shouldn’t get too ahead of ourselves with just 21% of the season played, you can’t help but start looking at how this team stacks up compared with other great defenses of the past.

Arsenal have been a very good defensive team now for a while, but the current team is pushing this to new levels, here is how things look for the ten match moving average for open play xG allowed and goals allowed.

Arsenal have touched this level for stretches in the recent past but right now it does feel like there might be something special with this defense compared to those teams. Outside of the first match of the season against Manchester United they have held every opponent under 10 shots and to lower than 1 expected goal.

It isn’t just that they have suppressed shots, but they have limited what their opponents have been able to do creating good opportunities to shoot.

5 - Big chances allowed by Arsenal, that is just 0.6 per match. The next best is Newcastle with 7 allowed. Arsenal have allowed 0 big chances in 5 of 8 matches this season.

This has meant that not only do Arsenal lead the league with the fewest shots allowed this season, but they also lead the league with the lowest average shot quality against. This is a bit of a unique place to be with teams often facing a bit of a trade-off between keeping teams from taking shots and keeping the average quality low.

Here is what it looks like in the FBref xG era for the Premier League with the current Arsenal team highlighted.

There is still room for Arsenal to allow fewer shots this season, but they are in a record-breaking level for the average quality of shots faced and are doing so pretty comfortably at 10-15% better or teams with similar volume and 6% better than the previous low for average shot quality (Tottenham 21/22).

If Arsenal are going to challenge the records, they will need to maintain their current form and that is certainly going to be a challenge. Here is the current Arsenal goals allowed compared to what Chelsea did in their record setting season.

Even at just 3 goals allowed, Arsenal are behind what Chelsea had done at this same stage. Arsenal are currently on pace for a bit more than 14 goals so it’s not out of the question even though they are a bit behind Chelsea’s numbers.

The record for clean sheets in the Premier League is the 04/05 Chelsea team with 25, the 1998/99 Arsenal team was just behind them with 23 clean sheets and holds the record for Arsenal (in a 38-match season). This team is on pace for 24 clean sheets.

My simulation model does keep track of total goals allowed for each run and right now the number of times that Arsenal finish with 15 or fewer goals allowed is 24 times out of 10,000 so it still looks like a remote probability. The average goals allowed by Arsenal in my latest simulation is 27.3, with the majority of simulations falling between 24 and 30 goals allowed.

It will be something to watch as we get a bit further down the road.

The Eze as ‘10’ doesn’t quite work in this match

29 - Pass attempts with 25 completed for an 86.2 completion % and 103.8% efficiency

3 - Final 3rd Entry Passes completed

9 - Forward passes attempted (31%)

2 - Progressive Passes completed

1 - Box Entry Pass completed

1 - Key Pass for 0.04 xA

1 - Shot (blocked) for 0.02 xG

1 - Dribble completed out of 2 attempted

1 - Progressive Carry

7 - Progressive Passes Received

1 - Touch in the box

0 - Tackles

0 - Interceptions

1 - Ball Recoveries

While I think that the team overall played well in this match, I think that there is some fair frustration in that Arsenal did not do particularly well at turning their overwhelming final third possession into dangerous shots or clear-cut opportunities.

A good portion of this is that Fulham do a good job of limiting these kinds of opportunities, they are 6th this season in limiting open play big chances, 6th in open play xG allowed and 7th in open play shots allowed. In this match they did focus almost entirely on limiting what Arsenal could do in the final third vs coming out and engaging Arsenal higher up the pitch.

Here is what Eze did in the final third with his passing in this match.

He was trying to drop into pockets and find space, but it wasn’t really there given the defensive tactics of Fulham. That meant that he was often quite peripheral to the play and he ended up with just the 6th most passes attempted in the attacking portion of the pitch.

In this match, he just did not have the overall impact that you would have liked to have seen from him in that position. This is a new problem for him to solve, given that his time with Crystal Palace did not feature lots of reps against teams sitting back and denying space to this same extent.

Saka is simply amazing

I could list out a bunch of stats here as is the usual mode of operation, instead I think that there is one graphic that I can post that really nails things here.

This is the goal probability added for the match which tells us how the actions from each player change the chances of the team scoring/conceding overall for the match. I like this stat because it helps give more relative impact for the different things that a player does and helps to uncover things that may not have ended up on the score sheet.

This is a good illustration of how goals and assists, while incredibly important can cover up the impact of a player. There is no doubt that Saka was by far the best player on that pitch (as he is most days he steps on to the field) and this stat and graphic help capture just how much he was lapping his teammates here.

Simply amazing and I appreciate being able to watch him play for Arsenal.

This particular fixture has been a bit of a bogey one for Arsenal. Not because they haven’t played well or that West Ham did anything especially well to limit Arsenal, it is just one of those that has turned out going against Arsenal.

That still makes it a bit more nervy than it looks on paper and it represented a chance to pickup points on last season’s results.

Arsenal came out with a lineup that was something that many had hoped for in the type of matches that you would expect teams that are sitting back against Arsenal.

We only got to see it for a brief period with Odegaard going out injured again in the first half, but after complaints about Arteta playing with the handbrake on, he set up looking like he threw it out the window for this matchup.

Overall, this was a fun match and a pretty stress free win that capped a nice weekend that see’s Arsenal go into the international break on top of the Premier League table.

Arsenal vs West Ham: The Graphics

Arsenal vs West Ham: The Debrief

21 - Shots from Arsenal in this match, that is now back to back matches with 20 or more shots in the Premier League.

3.4 - Expected goals for Arsenal, this is the most that Arsenal have had in a match this season

2.0 - Expected goals for Arsenal from open play, before this Arsenal had just 2.76 open play xG in the League this season. They had 12 open play shots in this match which another season high.

6 - Shots within 12 yards of goal, 16 shots within the penalty area.

It was really nice to be able to see Arsenal create a ton of chances and continue to pile on pressure in a match. We all would have love to have seen one of the early chances that Arsenal had converted but ultimately they got a lead in the first half and never really looked back after that.

We only briefly got to see Arsenal play with the double 10 system of Eze and Odegaard for a few minutes (Arsenal have announced that he has an MCL injury that will see him out for a few weeks). What I saw was promising with Odegaard staying primarily a bit deeper and to the left but freedom to roam, and with Eze playing more of the “10” role but off the left and a bit higher.

Looking at Arsenal’s final third passes there isn’t a massively obvious change in style (and really there can’t be with a team sitting back against you) but there did seem to be a few more chances for Arsenal to try and play through the lines and beyond the West Ham backline.

This is a continuation of a trend for Arsenal, against West Ham Arsenal completed 5 through balls. That is already the third time this season that they have had 5 or more completed through balls in a match this season and it is setting Arsenal on a pace that should see them blow away the other seasons under Mikel Arteta. Here are the matches with 5 or more through balls completed in a match since 2019-20:

• 2025-26: 3 so far

• 2024-25: 5

• 2023-24: 6

• 2022-23: 2

• 2021-22: 3

• 2020-21: 0

• 2019-20: 3

It has taken some time with the tough early schedule and the bedding in of all of the new players (mixed with the injuries) but it does seem like things are starting to come together a bit more for Arsenal’s attack and that is a major positive because it was really the only real weakness that you could point to for this current Arsenal team.

We take it for granted but again this was another suffocating match from Arsenal’s defense, between something close to the first and last kick for West Ham. They had two big chances, both from corners, one in the 1st minute and the other in the 92nd minute and between that they had just two shots with neither being valued at more than 4%.

Between those big chances, West Ham got into Arsenal’s box just 4 times and they really offered no threat at all against Arsenal’s defense.

We take it as a given but it is nice to be reminded every once in while how good this team is and they are spectacular at giving the opposition nothing at all in a match.

Timber continues to make his case as the best right back in the League

49 - Passes attempted, completing 43 for an 87.8% pass completion % and 106.4% Pass Efficiency

2 - Progressive Passes completed

2 - Key Passes for 0.02 xA

2 - Shots for 0.15 xG

5 - Progressive Passes Received

3 - Final Third Entry Pass Received

6 - Touches in the box, including a penalty drawn

6 - Tackles with 0 times dribbled past and 2 fouls committed. He has been dribbled past just 4 times this season. No other player who has attempted 20 tackles has a lower dribbled past rate then Timber this season (Timber is at 13.8%, the next best is 15.2%)

2 - Interceptions

3 - Ball Recoveries

2 - Clearances

When Arsenal signed Timber I was so excited for him and that was dashed a bit when he ended up suffering an ACL tear in his first Premier League match. He came back last season quite strong after that injury but to a certain extent that was still a bit of his adjustment period to a new League and a new team.

This season he has started to show that the promise of him being one of the best defensive prospects in the world was true and that even though Arsenal had a very good established right back option in Ben White with the team, he was here to steal that shirt and raise the level of the team.

It feels like there is some belief that he was signed to be a left back option but I don’t believe that. I think he was brought in to be the longer term right back as White got a bit older but he has just come in ahead of schedule and even that first season he was too good to be kept out of the team and even playing out of position was worth getting him in there.

If you could have pointed out a weakness in his game it was the final third actions and this season that has been a part of his game that has grown the most. He has taken a major step forward understanding when and where to pick his spots to attack and it has led to him finding himself in a number of amazing attacking spots. He still can improve his final action but the trend is moving in the right direction.

31 - Pass Attempts 21 - Pass Completed 67.7% - Pass% 72.0% - xPass% 94.1% - Pass Efficiency

5 - Progressive Passes

5 - Deep Completions (not Cross)

2 - Key Passes 1.37 - xA

4 - Non-penalty Shots for 0.86 xG

0 - Dribbles Completed out of 3 attempted and was fouled 3 times

5 - Progressive Carries

6 - Touches in the box

0.93 - xG Buildup

1 - Tackles 2 - Dribbled Past 2 - Fouls

2 - Interceptions plus blocked passes

4 - Ball Recoveries

This was Saka’s 200th appearance for Arsenal and he finished it off with a performance that has become typical for him, he was the best player on the pitch. It wasn’t a perfect performance and he still at times looks like he is playing within himself, careful not to push too hard and risk a re-injury of his hamstring but even like that he is an amazing player.

He also expressed a bit of his “Big Dog” status here, as the captain he took the prerogative when it came to taking the penalty that Timber won and he dispatched it without fuss to give Arsenal a nice 2 goal cushion.

Gyokeres results are still under the microscope

2 - Shots for 1.37 xG

8 - Touches in the box

11 - Passes Attempted with 5 passes completed for 45.5 pass completion % and 58.9% pass efficiency

1 - Progressive Pass

1 - Dribble Completed out of 2 attempted

2 - Times Fouled

3 - Dispossessed

4 - Miscontroled passes

3 - Progressive Carries

3 - Long Pass Received

8 - Progressive Passes Received

3 - Final Third Entry Pass Received

3 - Aerial duels won out of 4 contested

When Arsenal signed Gyokeres the idea behind the player was that he was a goal scorer, well he hasn’t scored in a few games and there are some signs of discontent in the fanbase.

I had skepticism about the player when he was signed and my expectations have been set to reflect that but overall still I have to say that I think he’s been about as good as I had hoped he would be. Some of the things I was worried about have not been as much of a weakness as I feared (things like hold up play) and he has shown that he wants to hunt getting himself shots.

In this game in particular he doesn’t have the prettiest stat line that you’ll see and the apps that do ratings will give him a negative score but I view this one a bit of the opposite of that thinking that he had a pretty valuable day for the team.

This is not the be all end stat, but my goal probability added metric that looks at a players actions effects on the team scoring back this up.

This is backed up by what Arteta said about him post match.

“I just went there and hugged him and said thank you because the work that he does is unbelievable for the team. The way he stretches the back four and the spaces he opens. I mean today how he hasn’t scored a goal, I don’t know!”

He has been doing a lot of the dirty work to make things work for the rest of the team, banging against center backs, running behind relentlessly, pressing and looking to be an option and threat. I still would like to see him get a few more shots on per game basis but the overall production that I have been looking at is trending towards him hitting my expectations for success.

After losing headed into the international break, we had to marinate with that feeling hanging over us. It didn’t feel good, and you wish that there was another game coming up right after to help change the mood and the discussion. Arsenal didn’t have that opportunity, but they did get the first match of the weekend and took advantage of it to show that so much of what had been said about them in the two weeks leading up was wrong.

This was also the first chance for Arteta to show off the depth in his squad, he made several changes from what would be viewed as the “best XI” and featured five new signings in the team here. This is going to be something that will be important as the season goes on and if the team can find situations to keep key players fresh now, it should hopefully pay off when we get into the later parts of the season when the pressure ramps up.

Overall, it was the most complete game of the young season and gave us lots of good things to dig into today.

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest: The Graphics

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest: The Debrief

16 - Shots for Arsenal in this match, this is the second most behind the 17 shots they had against Leeds

37 - Touches in the box in this match, the most in a match so far this season. 21% of Arsenal’s final third touches were in the box, that is the highest proportion this season.

9 - Shots from open play in this match, this is second again to Leeds where they had 11.

2.26 - Expected goals for Arsenal, this is second to Leeds where they had 3.3 (2.5 excluding the penalty).

1.03 - xG from Open Play (1 goal), the most in a match so far this season (0.23, 0.92, 0.28 previously). 2.46 xG from open play total this season

1.23 - xG from Set Play (2 goals), 3.96 xG from set play total this season (4.76 including the penalty)

This was a solid overall attacking performance for Arsenal. The team had a nice mixture of volume of shots and still did a good job at creating a number of good scoring chances (0.14 xG per shot is very good and they had 4 big chances in this match).

Arsenal didn’t camp in the Forest half this match, with just a 60% field tilt here and the overall possession at just 54% but they did have excellent box efficiency here to convert what they did have here into chances and goals.

One of the other things here that will remain a talking point is that Arsenal had still just a bit more than 1 expected goal from open play; after starting the round third bottom this won’t have moved them significantly up the list. I care about Arsenal’s ability to create chances from open play, but I do come about it from a more holistic view looking a part of the team’s ability to create chances and also how it compares to what the team has allowed.

We always want more here (and I do think that will come) but it’s not something I am worried about yet because a) it is just 4 matches into the season, b) the team is producing 1.8 xG per match overall and that is quite good.

5 - Shots allowed, after giving up 22 shots in the first match of the season Arsenal have given up just 17 in the three matches since, that is just 5.7 per match.

13 - Touches in the box allowed in this match, after giving up 34 in the first match of the season Arsenal have allowed just 34 in the three matches since, that is just 11.3 per match.

0 - Big chances allowed in this match, Arsenal have allowed 0 big chances all season long.

0.18 - xG allowed in this match, Arsenal have allowed 2.23 total this season and that is just 0.56 allowed per match.

We have come to expect it for Arsenal, but this defense is unreal. Arsenal do not allow teams to have good looks at their goal period.

Madueke is making believers out of his haters

I almost published this without adding this section. I was one of the bigger backers of this signing, singing his praises and believing that there was a lot to like about this player. He has had a week that showed it off between his performance with England and Arsenal.

I hope it continues, and he gives Arteta some selection headaches.

What exactly is Calafiori’s position anyway and does it matter?

Calafiori has started all four matches this season for Arsenal and he has become pretty integral into how the team is able to create the spark that generates attack for Arsenal. In this match it was no different as he played the inch perfect pass over the top that set Arsenal on their way to the second goal.

He came into the League very misunderstood, especially by the wider world; he was a center back in Serie A the final season before he moved, but that was a “center back” in the way that he has nominally been playing “left back” for Arsenal.

I have posted the performance charts from each of his first four games this season below and if you squint, there is one match (Liverpool) that looks like something you’d expect to see a “normal” full back produce.

Calafiori is a bit of a contradiction of a player, especially for what you consider the role of a defender.

• This is a player has a goal and two assists already this season in under 300 minutes, that is tied for the most in the team. He is second in shot creating actions with 12 but only has three key passes and one pass completed into the box.

• He is third in touches in the box for Arsenal and he is just 8th in touches in the defensive third, behind many players with fewer minutes played this season.

• He is third for progressive passes received, and just 6th for progressive passes played this season.

I am starting to develop quite an affection for this player and his unique skills and role. It can be frustrating at times that people that are not in the weeds living and breathing Arsenal will miscast him, hell I think that we will struggle to describe what he does using our conventional descriptions. I am ready to sit back and just enjoy the ride here.

Arsenal have found a gem in Cristhian Mosquera

83 - Pass Attempts (led all players), 76 Completed (led all players), 91.6% completion percentage, and 106.7% Pass Efficiency

3 - Final 3rd Entry Passes completed

2 - Long Passes completed out of 2 attempted

687 - Progressive Pass Distance (led all players)

6 - Progressive Carries

2 - Tackles, 0 times Dribbled Past

2 - Interceptions

6 - Ball Recoveries

4 - Clearances

When I did my First thoughts post after the Nottingham Forest match, I totally left him off the list of positives. It is just a reflection of how quickly I have just accepted that this is his level and him stepping in and the defense not missing a beat. That’s unfair to him but also in a way pretty high praise. I wasn’t worried when I saw him starting on the team sheet instead of William Saliba, his play in this match backed that up.

Nwaneri impresses in midfield

40 - Pass Attempts, 35 Completed, 87.5% completion percentage, and 102.9% Pass Efficiency

3 - Final 3rd Entry Passes completed

3 - Progressive Passes

1 - Key Pass, 0.04 xA

3 - Shots, 0.16 xG

5 - Progressive Carries

4 - Touches in the box

0.83 - xG Buildup

3 - Ball Recoveries

For the second time this season Nwaneri was called upon to come in for an injured Martin Odegaard in the first half of a match. The first time out against Leeds I think he did a solid job but this time I think he looked even more impressive.

The first periods after coming in cold, had some moments to forget about and he had a few times where he held on carrying the ball vs releasing it but as the came progressed his decision making improved significantly to where I think he had his timing down really nice.

He also seemed to have a bit more belief in his passing in this match where he showed his ability to progress the ball up the field rather than just carrying it up. This helped to give the Arsenal play a nice zip to it.

The other things that caught my eye here, he handled the physicality of the game with no issues. Sangare and Anderson tried to muscle him off the ball, but he was strong and shielded it well riding their challenges. The last one to note was that on the play where he gets on the end of the Merino cutback that goes over the bar, I really liked his anticipation and movement. He started from deep but saw the play developing and got himself to the spot and had the confidence to demand the ball there. He didn’t have the cleanest contact but that is the type of play that leads to goals and I love to see it.

Gyokeres volume play makes its first showing of the season

16 - Matches out of 33 total played last season in the Primeira Liga that Gyokeres had 4 or more shots in a match. In the Champions League it was an addition 2 out of 8. If we set the bar at 3 shots in a match it was 21 in the league and 4 in Europe.

1 - The number of times now that he has done it with Arsenal, with 4 shots in this match against Forest.

0.8 - Expected goals and an actual goal scored from a nice first-time finish to give Arsenal more comfort going from +1 goal up to +2 goals up.

For Gyokeres, I don’t particularly care about a lot of his actions outside the area 25 yards from the center of the goal. If he can be decent at hold up play, that’s fine. If he does or doesn’t make passes dropping into midfield, I can take it or leave it. I am pretty solely focused on the stuff with him on the areas in and around the box (and to expand just a bit how he can make runs/plays that lead to him getting actions in that area).

The Leeds match showed a bit of that, but he still had just the one moment where he was able to impact the game and had 4 touches in the box (ignoring the penalty). Here we got to see him more involved in this key area:

• He had 8 touches within 25 yards of goal and turned that into 4 shots, if he is turning 30-40% of those touches into shots we are going to be doing good.

• He had 13 passes received and 8 of them were progressive

• He added a progressive pass and a key pass from inside this key zone as well out of the three passes that he tried.

We all want to jump to conclusions early and the hardest thing to do is to wait and see but that is still what we have to do here with this player.

I love having a "thing" to track on a regular basis and I think for this season it will be Gyökeres’s production compared to my preseason targets for what “success” for him would look like. I set this talking with Adam in preseason, and it is based on his CL production, his league adjusted numbers, and my view for what players that are good/very good but short of elite have produced. For this season that means I want to see him at 0.45 non-penalty Goals scored and 2.7 Shots taken per 90 in the Premier League. Here is a fun graphic that you will see me post as we watch this over the course of this season:

Correction: A previous version of this post had a graphic on the Gyökeres shots and goal tracking that had a mistake and understated the goals scored per 90. This has been updated with the correct information.

Arsenal before this move had signed seven players and blown past their biggest ever spending summer ever. I thought after the surprise Eberechi Eze move that would be it for Arsenal and it would be only outgoings from there on out.

Well, I thought wrong and here we are again doing another new player Debrief.

Arsenal have signed Piero Hincapié from Bayer Leverkusen on a loan plus buy option/obligation. It looks like it is structured this way to give Arsenal a bit more flexibility under the UEFA FFP rules and if it is picked up (which is really does seem like it is all but certain to be), this will be a €52million (£45m) plus a 10% sell-on clause transfer and then a five year contract from when the purchase happens (through 2031).

The player today is the type of player that Mikel Arteta has always had a soft spot for and it is the hybrid defender that can play center back but also play wider. We have seen this Ben White, Jurrien Timber, Jakub Kiwior, Riccardo Calafiori, and Cristhian Mosquera. You can’t say that Arteta doesn’t have a type because he clearly does and to be fair to him, it has paid dividends with Arsenal building one of the strongest defenses in the world.

This is going to be more of a rapid-fire stats look and because this is a defensive player, actually watching and not just looking at the spreadsheets will be important here. Adam has done a nice film session here to help get you up to speed on the player:

Piero Hincapié: The Debrief

Radars and distribution graphics are not always perfect for defensive players and it is important to watch the player to understand better what the metrics mean and how the tactics of the team influence these. This is also what we do here so we go forward taking a look at Arsenal’s newest players and how they compare to their positional peers.

This will be looking at Hincapié’s stats by area/category from last season.

All data will be per 90 minutes unless otherwise noted. He played most minutes as a center back, but I will also include his numbers against full backs from the top five European Leagues going back to 2017/18 for percentile comparisons.

Ball Progression, Passing, and Carrying Metrics

106.7% - Pass Efficiency (actual passing completion divided by the expected completion percentage), percentile: 87.1 compared to center backs and 91.7 compared to full backs

0.12 - Goal Probability Added through Passing (Measure of changes in the team's chances of scoring/conceding following pass attempts), percentile: 95.6 compared to center backs and 93.7 compared to full backs

11.8% - Passing Usage (the percentage of total passes while playing that the player attempted), percentile: 61.3 compared to center backs and 83.1 compared to full backs

67.57 - Passing Volume (total attempts), percentile: 88.0 compared to center backs and 93.1 compared to full backs

88.2% - Pass Completion Percentage, percentile: 82.6 compared to center backs and 94.6 compared to full backs

17.2% - Defensive 3rd Passing Usage, percentile: 54.6 compared to center backs and 92.6 compared to full backs

12.7% - Middle 3rd Passing Usage, percentile: 64.0 compared to center backs and 87.1 compared to full backs

6.1% - Attacking 3rd Passing Usage, percentile: 70.2 compared to center backs and 15.4 compared to full backs

5.45 - Completed Final Third Entries, percentile: 92.4 compared to center backs and 93.6 compared to full backs

33.23 - Attacking 3rd Pass Attempts, percentile: 78.2 compared to center backs and 91.6 compared to full backs

89.9% - Attacking 3rd Pass Completion Percentage, percentile: 82.8 compared to center backs and 90.1 compared to full backs

0.42 - xG Chain (total xG involved in), percentile: 80.3 compared to center backs and 72.5 compared to full backs

0.28 - xG Buildup (total xG involved in, excluding the shot and key pass), percentile: 70.7 compared to center backs and 68.2 compared to full backs

21.7% - xG Buildup Usage (the percentage of total xG while on the field that he participated in the buildup to), percentile: 50.9 compared to center backs and 36.9 compared to full backs

4.88 - Long Pass Attempts, percentile: 25.9 compared to center backs and 46.8 compared to full backs

52.7% - Long Pass Completion Percentage, percentile: 41.8 compared to center backs and 69.1 compared to full backs

2.71 - Progressive Passes Completed, percentile: 59.8 compared to center backs and 32.7 compared to full backs

4.35 - Fields Gained (progressive yards through passing and carrying dived by the length of the field), percentile: 86.8 compared to center backs and 95.6 compared to full backs

The passing numbers are an area where we can get good information about a defender and good/bad is a bit easier to see. This will still always have team effects but there are things that we can pull out from this and Hincapie really pops here.

His technical level is very high and he completes more passes all over the field and does so for more value added than average. He is overall a good ball progressor and plays with a nice verticality to his game.

4.61 - Progressive Carries, percentile: 90.4 compared to center backs and 70.8 compared to full backs

0.05 - Goal Probability Added through Carrying/Dribbles (Measure of changes in the team's chances of scoring/conceding following carries and attacking duel attempts), percentile: 96.5 compared to center backs and 88.3 compared to full backs

1.5 - Carries into the Final Third, percentile: 89.0 compared to center backs and 56.5 compared to full backs

0.57 - Dribble, Attempted, percentile: 57.2 compared to center backs and 14.1 compared to full backs

0.17 - Dribble, Completed, percentile: 30.2 compared to center backs and 7.4 compared to full backs

0.17 - Dispossessed, percentile: 35.7 compared to center backs and 7.6 compared to full backs

1.44 - Foul Suffered, percentile: 91.7 compared to center backs and 82.5 compared to full backs

29.4% - Dribble Success %, percentile: 8.5 compared to center backs and 7.1 compared to full backs

This is one where it starts getting a little messy with the position stuff. He carries well for a center back but is below average for a full back. The mix of doing both makes it tough to get a great read here from just the stats.

1.64 - Touches in the box, percentile: 88.6 compared to center backs and 70.6 compared to full backs

1.91 - Deep Touches (within 25 yards of goal), percentile: 84.5 compared to center backs and 57 compared to full backs

55.46 - Passes Received, percentile: 90.5 compared to center backs and 92.7 compared to full backs

1.27 - Progressive Passes Received, percentile: 80.4 compared to center backs and 42.5 compared to full backs

1.74 - Final Third Entry Received, percentile: 78.0 compared to center backs and 27.1 compared to full backs

0.94 - Penalty Area Passes Received, percentile: 84.3 compared to center backs and 78.9 compared to full backs

0.64 - Unsuccessful Touches (miscontrolling a pass or a bad touch), percentile: 39.3 compared to center backs and 82.8 compared to full backs

Another one where being between the two positions makes it hard to compare with a lot of confidence to either of them.

Defensive metrics

3.97 - Possession Adjusted (padj) Defensive Duels Contested, percentile: 64.9 compared to center backs and 45.4 compared to full backs

2.86 - Padj Tackles Attempted, percentile: 71.1 compared to center backs and 49.4 compared to full backs

2.18 - Padj Successful Tackles, percentile: 75.7 compared to center backs and 60.4 compared to full backs

54.8% - Tackle % (Successful Tackles/ Tackles + Fouls Committed), percentile: 75.7 compared to center backs and 75.1 compared to full backs

23.9% - Dribbled Past % (Dribbled Past/ Tackles Attempted), percentile: 63.1 compared to center backs and 76.7 compared to full backs

4.91 - Padj Clearances, percentile: 79.2 compared to center backs and 96.4 compared to full backs

1.11 - Padj Fouls Committed, percentile: 50.2 compared to center backs and 46 compared to full backs

2.26 - Padj Interceptions, percentile: 62.7 compared to center backs and 57.3 compared to full backs

4.48 - Padj Ball Recoveries, percentile: 21.3 compared to center backs and 18.2 compared to full backs

78.9% - Shots Allowed while on the field compared with Opponents AVG production, percentile: 83.9 compared to center backs and 82.9 compared to full backs

67.6% - xG Allowed while on the field compared with Opponents AVG production, percentile: 80.5 compared to center backs and 80.4 compared to full backs

Hincapie is an active defender, and he can be accurately described as front footed and aggressive. He wins more tackles and intercepts more balls than average and will cover a good amount of space while defending. Overall, as part of the defensive unit, he showed up well at limiting Bundesliga teams from generating much attack.

This is still an area where looking at the film comes out on top for rating the player but still good to get an idea of how the measurable metrics look as well.

Attacking metrics

0.3 - Open Play Shots, percentile: 75.9 compared to center backs and 42.4 compared to full backs

0.01 - Open Play xG, percentile: 66.2 compared to center backs and 33.5 compared to full backs

0.14 - xG Per Shot, percentile: 81.7 compared to center backs and 90.6 compared to full backs

0.47 - Set Play Shots, percentile: 72.1 compared to center backs and 89 compared to full backs

Hincapie wasn’t a massive open play threat and that is no surprise from where he played most of his matches. What he does offer is solid set play production where he was getting a shot every other 90 and was able to average solid shot quality on those shots (a few real big chances help in that regard though).

0.07 - Assists, percentile: 76.5 compared to center backs and 48.8 compared to full backs

0.08 - Open Play xA, percentile: 87.7 compared to center backs and 60 compared to full backs

0.5 - Open Play Key Passes, percentile: 77.8 compared to center backs and 31.5 compared to full backs

1.3 - Passes Completed with 25 yards of goal, percentile: 81.1 compared to center backs and 34.7 compared to full backs

0.57 - Passes Completed into the box (includes passes starting in the box), percentile: 72.4 compared to center backs and 21.2 compared to full backs

0.77 - Passes Completed Pass inside the box (includes passes starting in the box), percentile: 75.7 compared to center backs and 25.3 compared to full backs

0.27 - Crosses Completed within 25 yards of Goal, percentile: 81.1 compared to center backs and 31.1 compared to full backs

1.24 - Crosses Attempted (Including set plays), percentile: 79.8 compared to center backs and 24.4 compared to full backs

24.3% - Cross Completion Percentage, percentile: 63.7 compared to center backs and 60.6 compared to full backs

Creatively there are some nice green shoots here for if he were to play a longer term left back role. He has a nice delivery and high technical level passing and that would make me believe that he can contribute more in the final third with more opportunities. The lack of opportunities is what limits him on the comparison to fullbacks but for the time in the final third he has done quite well generating quality balls into dangerous areas.

Final Thoughts

I did not have this move on my bingo card at the beginning of the summer, but it is one that adds an additional and exciting profile to the Arsenal team that they didn’t quite have.

To a certain extent it makes sense that if Jakub Kiwior and Oleksandr Zinchenko leave this summer the options at left back are Riccardo Calafiori (injury questions) and Myles Lewis-Skelly (perhaps not a long-term left back) and at left center back are Gabriel Magalhães, Calafiori moving over and having to play a right footed player in that spot which is not the ideal for Mikel Arteta.

Adding in Hincapie to the team with coverage at LB and LCB really fills out the depth chart.

This level of depth feels foreign for an Arsenal team. We are so used to being a team that has talent in the first in the first 11 for sure, even into the 13-14 spots but this season it seems like the lesson of how injuries can derail a promising season were headed and the team is going potentially 22-23 players deep.

This is a lineup that the team can field even if every single player who was first choice was out.

There are even different permutations that you can figure out if you really wanted to as well given that the team has continued to prioritize versatility in the squad.

Hincapie is that extra luxury signing that Arsenal have just basically never made and that really makes it extra exciting.

Welcome Piero!

I came into this match wanting to measure Arsenal up against Liverpool and how the teams looked as they are set for what hopefully will be a season long battle for the Premier League title.

I can help but come away feeling more positive about Arsenal here even though that isn’t the story of the match in the general consensus.

This match was potentially there for Arsenal to win and they didn’t take it, but this was a team that came into the house of the Champions and had more time where they were on top of the game but one that was ultimately very tightly contested.

There isn’t a team that is better than Arsenal in the Premier League right now and they should be well set up to put together a good season with 35 big matches to go.

Liverpool vs Arsenal: The Graphics

Liverpool vs Arsenal: The Debrief

9 - Shots for Liverpool, the fewest that they have had in a home match since February 2025

0.3 - Expected goals from Liverpool, the fewest that they have had in a home match since March 2021

0.04 - Expected goals per shot, the lowest average shot value that they have had in a home match since March 2021

15 - Touches in the box for Liverpool, the fewest that they have had in a home match since October 2024

6 - Passes completed from open play into the penalty area completed, the fewest that they have had in a home match since April 2024

78 - Touches in the final third for Liverpool, the fewest that they have had in a home match ever in the FBref database that goes back to the 2017-18 season

It is funny to see the stats above and then see the reactions after the match from the media on which team came to win and deserved to win (it is a bit funny to see that used here and not getting nearly the same reaction as my tongue-in-cheek graphic).

This is what the defending champions did at home, a place that they lost one in regular time all of last season. They have lost just 13 matches at home in the last half decade in all competitions. They came into this match the favorites to win by the betting odds and the people that publish odds.

This is a team that was missing their right back but gave them an opportunity to squeeze all eleven of their best players on the pitch, including the reigning golden boot winner plus a new £80 million striker and a £116 million British transfer record (well at least for a bit).

This a team that is known for the lethality of their attack and that they will lean into it even if that comes at the expense of being more open to being counter attacked. Their principles are that they are a team that goes for it.

Not here. Not against this Arsenal team.

Yet, it is Arsenal that have come away as the team that ruined the game. That didn’t go for it. That was too conservative, don’t even get me started on the supposed smart people who called this a 4 center back and a 3 defensive midfield lineup, because that just exposes you as a person who doesn’t really follow or watch the players here and want to make a cheap joke.

That’s crazy to me. Arsenal were without numerous key players due to injury (Arsenal have 5 senior players injured and lost William Saliba in the first 5 minutes) but with the business that they have done this summer it still felt possible that this team would be able to compete here.

Arsenal did exactly that here and the difference between the teams was a spectacular free kick where Liverpool executed one of the 2-3 moments that they had and Arsenal failing to execute on the 3-5 moments that they had.

Here is what Arne Slot said about the match in his post-game comments:

If we play this game 10 times more in the same fashion then I think it’s eight times a draw, we win it one time and Arsenal wins it one time because it was an uneventful game, which is something sometimes positive as well because both teams were really good in rest defence and in defending. But, I think normally Arsenal and us are able to create more chances during a game, but it tells you also something about the structure and the amount of discipline both teams have without the ball. Then you need a moment of magic, which we got from Dominik, and that resulted in us winning a game that, like I just said, normally would have ended in a draw.

I appreciate that he is pretty realistic about this after the match, and it makes me respect him quite a bit for his candor and humility here. I don’t know if it is an 8 draw, one win a piece distribution of outcomes if you played it 10 times but that’s not so far off and this being a draw is absolutely the most likely outcome from the performance here.

My “deserve” to win meter, actually does try and put an actual number on these types of things and this is what it comes out with for this match:

This would see this finishing as a draw 5 times, Arsenal winning 3, and Liverpool winning 2.

Neither team created a clear-cut chance here that was actually taken as a shot (Liverpool had a big one that was offside on a rebound, Arsenal had Eze in on goal but he didn’t take the shot and looked to draw a penalty instead on soft contact in the box.)

If you take these values and do a simulation of the outcomes it looks like this:

Not far off the deserve to win meter (that has a bit on possession and on shot placement) at Arsenal winning 2, Liverpool winning 2 and the other 6 being a draw.

When two closely matched teams face off in a low scoring sport like this, it is the tiny margins that make the difference and that was again the case here.

Arsenal’s attack still isn’t firing

0.4 - Expected goals for Arsenal in this match, this is lowest total that they have created in an away match since November 2021 (also against Liverpool) and the lowest since their 1-0 win against Manchester City in October 2023 (a match that followed a similar pattern but had very different narrative because Arsenal got the goal there).

4.9 - Total expected goals for Arsenal in the opening 3 matches of the season, 1.63 per, ranking 4th in the Premier League so far this season

10 - Shots total for Arsenal in this match

38 - Shots total for Arsenal in the opening 3 matches of the season, 12.7 per match with the 18 against Leeds giving a big lift, ranking 4th in the Premier League so far this season

6 - Shots from open play in this match

22 - Shots from open play in the opening 3 matches of the season, 7.3 per match ranking 11th in the Premier League so far this season

0.3 - Expected goals from open play in this match

1.45 - Expected goals from open play in the opening 3 matches of the season, 0.48 per match ranking 19th in the Premier League so far this season

Arsenal’s ability to get shots here is again a major issue for the team. Three times played this season and that is twice where it has been 10 shots or fewer and a struggle to create clear openings from open play (just 2 big chances, only Aston Villa have fewer this season).

This lack of shooting volume was a problem for Arsenal last season as well; Arsenal had 7 matches in the Premier League where they took 10 or fewer shots on their way to finishing 5th in total shots.

In this match, Arsenal were not the team that sat back and didn’t try to attack here but they still struggled again to create the open looks at goal. Part of this was that Liverpool did drastically change what they had done against Bournemouth and Newcastle to not allow the same kind of opportunities to Arsenal. Still Arsenal put up another 0 goals scored performance and that is not a situation that is going to win you a lot of points.

42 - Times in the Premier League that Arsenal have failed to score under Mikel Arteta

15 - Times in the Premier League that Arsenal have failed to score since the start of the 2022/23 season. Liverpool have 12 occurrences, Manchester City have 13 occurrences over that same time period. (I honestly expected it to be significantly more for Arsenal, that’s not nearly as bad as I thought and it goes against how I thought the story would go and as a writer that is quite disruptive. I am including it here because I really don’t try and cherry pick information.)

Arsenal have invested heavily in the attack this season, adding Eberechi Eze, Viktor Gyokeres, and Noni Madueke, all while not losing in players in attacks to other clubs. These players are working their way into the team, but they were almost certainly bought to address the struggles and move the team from the middle of the pack into a range that is closer to the teams that they want to compete against.

Last season Arsenal ranked 8th in open play xG and were over 0.5 xG per match behind Liverpool and nearly 0.25 behind Manchester City and Chelsea.

That’s nearly the difference between 20 goals to Liverpool and 10 goals to City and Chelsea that Arsenal would have to find elsewhere. Arsenal do make up for it a bit by also being incredibly stout in defense, but it is still a hurdle for the team to try and overcome.

Player graphic quick hits

The stocks are at all time lows. Tough day for Martinelli and it feels like a large portion of the fanbase has given up on him.

Probably the best attacker on the day for Arsenal.

A surprise inclusion in the team, couldn’t make the same impact that he did in the two matches last season against Liverpool.

He was everywhere in this match for Arsenal.

Not a day where he got a ton of service, a couple runs missed and a couple runs not made. He did not trouble Ibrahima Konaté much at all here.

The fellow new striker on the other side didn’t fair much better here. Moving to the PL and facing up some of the best center backs is hard.

I am going to leave it here today; it is a holiday and transfer deadline day so there are other things on people’s minds today. It’s a disappointing result for Arsenal but overall, I am not down on this team after this result. In fact I come away feeling the opposite about this team and like we did see more positives from Arsenal here than we did from Liverpool.

It’s a long season ahead still and not every bump in the road is the end of the world.

It is hard to beat the vibes that come with the first home match of the season and some how Arsenal were able to make it that much sweeter by putting together an exciting signing of Eberechi Eze and making the announcement before kickoff.

The crowd reaction looked electric, the announcement video deserves high praise given the team had minimal time to put it together and it hits you right in the feels.

The team then went and kept things on a high scoring five goals while keeping a clean sheet to move to the top of the early season table.

The high was dampened a bit with both Odegaard and Saka leaving early due to injury but the early reports are that they are not major injures so that at least gives some comfort.

Lots of good stuff to go through here.

Arsenal vs Leeds United: The Graphics

Arsenal vs Leeds United: The Debrief

2.9 - Expected goals for Arsenal, of that 0.8 came from the late penalty, 1.2 from other set plays, and 0.9 from open play

17 - Shots total for Arsenal, 11 of which came from open play

30 - Touches in the box for Arsenal

What a difference a week makes?

After struggling to create against Manchester United with 1.2 expected goals on 9 shots, Arsenal exploded with 5 goals from 2.9 xG and 17 total shots.

My expectations coming into this season would not have Leeds as a team quite on United’s level but not a total push over either even as a promoted club. It is still a time to be careful not to get too over our skis here reacting to new information but if we started to get a bit worried last Sunday this was a nice data point to help bring back some confidence that the team will be able to attack and score goals this season.

One of the big positives here for me in the attack was that we got to see Viktor Gyokeres make amends for his struggles against United by taking a similar ball in the channel that he stepped and tripped over into a goal today. He was able to cut inside beat his man and finish at the near post. It is always a positive when a big attacking signing can get that first goal in the back of the net and he didn’t wait too long for number too when he converted the late penalty.

3 - Shots total allowed by Arsenal in this match

0 - Shots allowed after the 20th minute Pascal Struijk shot.

6 - Touches in the penalty box for Leeds, with just 2 coming after the 20th minute

We can say much of the same that we had in the attacking section here in the defensive section, what a difference a week makes.

It was easy to get a bit worried after Manchester United peppered Arsenal’s goal with shots and put the defense under an uncomfortable and unusual amount of pressure. This week normal service was resumed, and Arsenal had a much more comfortable day.

There was really just the one real moment of true danger when Struijk got his head on the end of a corner kick but Raya made a solid save and that was just about it.

Speaking of a return to normal service…

Control returns

29 - Passing sequences of 7 or more passes for Arsenal in this match, compared to just 9 last week.

40 - Passing sequences of 5 or more passes in this match, compared to just 15 last week.

69% - Possession for Arsenal in this match, compared to just 39% last week

1.4 - Direct yards up the field per second while in possession for Arsenal in this match compared to 2.2 yards per second last week

This control really came in after Arsenal got their first goal to settle things for them and from that point on Arsenal really strangled the life out of this game. This 30-minute spell from 34-65 minutes is about as dominate of a period as you will see in a Premier League match this season.

Arsenal still looked to try and play quick/direct when the opportunity arose, but it did feel like there was a bit more balance to it rather than it being the only tactic and option that they wanted to try.

Even with a slower pace of play than they had against United, Arsenal managed to create three shots off a direct/transition attacks including the goal that Arsenal scored from winning the ball high up the field. That is a very encouraging sign overall because this was not Arsenal’s strength last season.

Madueke gets his first start

27 - Pass Attempts with 20 Completed

74.1% - Pass completion % on 100.3% Pass Efficiency

3 - Progressive Passes completed

2 - Key Passes for, 0.13 xA leading arsenal on shots assisted

0 - Shots

0 - Dribbled Attempted and was dispossessed 1 time

1 - Time Fouled

7 - Progressive Carries, led Arsenal

4 - Progressive Passes Received, 2nd on Arsenal

6 - Final Third Entry Pass Received, 2nd on Arsenal

3 - Touches in the box

0 - Tackles with 1 time Dribbled Past

1 - Foul committed

We got to see our first start for Madueke here and got to see him play from the left and the right-hand side in this match. We might unfortunately be seeing a bit more than we planned of him given Bukayo Saka will be a doubt for next weekend but what we did see here should give a bit of comfort.

This wasn’t the highest volume game from him with 0 shots and 0 dribbles attempted but his overall play here, especially when he moved to his more natural right hand side looked very positive.

Calafiori is showing how he can impact the attack

25 - Pass Attempts, completing 20

80.0% - Pass completion % with a 102.3% Pass Efficiency

5 - Final 3rd Entry Passes completed

3 - Progressive Passes completed

1 - Key Pass that was for an “assist” it was a great pass but Gyokeres did a lot of the work there to turn that into a goal

3 - Shots taken, this was a total of 0.7 xG but a big portion of that was hit “shot” that wasn’t connected clean leading to Jurrien Timber’s goal

2 - Dribbles Completed, out of 2 Attempted

5 - Touches in the box, tied for the most in the team

0 - Tackles completed, out of1 attempted

1 - Foul committed

It feels like we need to come up with a new name to describe the position that Calafiori plays in attack because fullback does not capture it well based on how we have seen every other full back play the position. Mikel Arteta has given him an incredible license to roam while Arsenal are in possession and it is something that seems to create good things every time he gets an extended period on the pitch.

The injuries last season really robbed the team of his much needed creativity and spark of chaos. I really hope that the team can keep him fit and able to provide this on a regular basis this season.

Max Dowman is wow

I can’t not mention him making his senior debut and it wasn’t just a final few minutes type either, he got a full 25 minute chance and he looked very bright. Also that kid can’t stop getting fouled in the box!

Arsenal have a real bright talent there.

There are few things that will get a fanbase gassed and excited quite like the signing of an attacking player. That gets ramped up even higher when that player has the flare and variety of skills that make you stop and go wow. When you can hijack the move from a rival and the player is a boyhood fan and member of the academy it is just that much more special.

We got all of that with Eberechi Eze and this is by far the most excited I have seen the fanbase for a move in quite a while and it puts a nice cherry on top of a window that as promised has been pretty unprecedented in Arsenal history.

This is normally a situation where I like to have my deep dive stats scouting article to point to but the speed that this deal has come together means that this newsletter is coming out before that one is finished. It should be finished soon and when it is if you are subscribed it will be in your email box, I will also update this post with the link at that time as well.

Here in the new player debrief you’ll still get lots of details, but it will be a bit more rapid-fire context to understand them.

Eberechi Eze: The Debrief

Right off the bat, it is pretty clear that this is a player where there is a major divergence from fan opinion and the stats on the player but going in the opposite direction of where things were with say a Noni Madueke.

Madueke is a stats darling that has fans skeptical and wasn’t helped by the taint of Chelsea. Eze is a highlights darling that has fans falling over themselves and is boosted by an excellent story of a return to his childhood club and that he is on a more lovable underdog team.

These players share quite a bit of similarity in that they are both very high volume players but they come from different environments and that will color the numbers and the initial view. They will also be key contributors to helping to bolster Arsenal’s attack adding key attributes that the team lacked.

Attacking and Creative Metrics:

0.24 - Non-Penalty Goals, percentile: 71.6

0.34 - Non-Penalty xG, percentile: 86.5

2.22 - Open Play Shots, percentile: 86.5

0.26 - Open Play xG, percentile: 83.6

8.57 - Open Play xG Per Shot (Avg Change Quality), percentile: 0.7

0.57 - Shots per touch within 25 yards of goal, percentile: 83.0

0.1 - xG Per Shot, percentile: 51.9

0.2 - Shots in Prime Locations (within 12 yards of goal), percentile: 45.3

-0.07 - Post Shot xG Added (The difference in xG of a shot and the estimated finishing quality Post Shot xG), percentile: 7.9

0.28 - On Target Percentage, percentile: 26.1

1.26 - Set Play Shots, percentile: 99.6

26.4% - Shot Usage (the percentage of total shots while playing that the player attempted), percentile: 97.2

21.3% - xG Usage (the percentage of total xG while playing that the player took the shot from), percentile: 78.6

Eze’s shooting is about getting that volume. Last season he took 100 shots and that would have been plenty to see him as the clear leader at Arsenal where Leandro Trossard led the team with 72. On a per 90 basis he would have been right there with Bukayo Saka (3.44) with his 3.47 shots per 90.

Arsenal were only 5th last season in shots taken in the Premier League and that’s a tough spot to win a title from.

The shot locations aren’t always the best and some of the decision making of shooting into a crowd led to a lower on target percentage than you’d like but the man is going to bring actions and that is something that Arsenal lacked last season (and have directly addressed with Eze, Gyokeres, and Madueke).

0.27 - Assists, percentile: 86.1

0.21 - Open Play xA, percentile: 88.1

1.19 - Open Play Key Passes, percentile: 68.9

0.53 - Shot Creating Action xG Assisted, percentile: 92.0

19.6% - Key Pass Usage, percentile: 81.3

3.68 - Passes Completed with 25 yards of goal, percentile: 85.7

2.83 - Passes Completed into the box (includes passes starting in the box), percentile: 91.8

3.21 - Passes Completed Pass inside the box (includes passes starting in the box), percentile: 91.0

0.05 - Set Play xA, percentile: 72.1

0.78 - Set Play Key Passes, percentile: 90.9

0.95 - Crosses Completed within 25 yards of Goal, percentile: 81.3

3.75 - Crosses Attempted (Including set plays), percentile: 78.4

25.5% - Cross Completion Percentage, percentile: 61.3

Creatively Eze stands out.

The name of the game here is again VOLUME and given the lack of fluency and threat on the left-hand side at times this is a welcome addition. He was the creative hub at Crystal Palace and has the potential to help balance out the Arsenal team and pick up some of the burden that falls on Saka and Odegaard.

Passing and Ball Progression Metrics:

100.0% - Pass Efficiency (actual passing completion divided by the expected completion percentage), percentile: 60.9

0.09 - Goal Probability Added through Passing (Measure of changes in the teams chances of scoring/conceding following pass attempts), percentile: 80.8

9.2% - Passing Usage (the percentage of total passes while playing that the player attempted), percentile: 56.1

34.79 - Passing Volume (total attempts), percentile: 43.3

75.4% - Pass Completion Percentage, percentile: 48.8

9.8% - Middle 3rd Passing Usage, percentile: 63.3

18.4% - Attacking 3rd Passing Usage, percentile: 78.7

2.05 - Completed Final Third Entries, percentile: 39.9

13.3 - Attacking 3rd Pass Attempts, percentile: 35.8

86.4% - Attacking 3rd Pass Completion Percentage, percentile: 65.9

0.94 - xG Chain (total xG involved in), percentile: 93.1

0.38 - xG Buildup (total xG involved in, excluding the shot and key pass), percentile: 76.8

51.9% - xG Buildup Usage (the percentage of total xG while on the field that he participated in the buildup to), percentile: 87.8

5.18 - Long Pass Attempts, percentile: 73.5

42.8% - Long Pass Completion Percentage, percentile: 16.1

2.97 - Progressive Passes Completed, percentile: 53.1

0.28 - Fields Gained (progressive yards through passing and carrying dived by the length of the field), percentile: 14.7

0.67 - Attacking 3rd Fields Gained, percentile: 58.1

-0.32 - Middle 3rd Fields Gained, percentile: 3.7

Eze in a Crystal Palace side didn’t get a ton of passes like he might in a team like Arsenal that has more of the ball but he was still one of their higher usage players, especially in the final third. His overall passing volume is a bit below average (40th percentile) but his final third usage was high for his team (nearly 80th percentile).

The style difference between Arsenal and Crystal Palace make it tougher to draw large conclusions from but overall, he comes out looking fine and ever so slightly above average. He’s hurt by some of the lack of volume here but also that he isn’t exactly a ball progression machine with his passing. Chaning to Arsenal could have a major impact on those numbers so I am not overly concerned about it and depending on where he lines up, that could be very much a duty that is down the list of what he is asked to do.

Carrying, Dribbles, and Receiving Metrics

4.77 - Progressive Carries, percentile: 62.2

0.05 - Goal Probability Added through Carrying/Dribbles (Measure of changes in the team’s chances of scoring/conceding following carries and attacking duel attempts), percentile: 79.2

1.81 - Carries into the Final Third, percentile: 58.4

0.99 - Carries into the box, percentile: 79.3

4.6 - Dribble, Attempted, percentile: 88.9

2.18 - Dribble, Completed, percentile: 87.5

1.53 - Dispossessed, percentile: 62.6

1.74 - Foul Suffered, percentile: 69.8

47.4% - Dribble Success %, percentile: 46.4

63.9% - Attacking Duel Win %, percentile: 40.7

This is an area that I expected the numbers to be stronger based on the reputation and my memories of watching him play but it is something that looks above average when I was expecting something closer to elite.

Maybe the numbers are not picking up things, maybe my brain is distorting things over indexing a few moments vs remembering the full picture of what happened in a match.

The team effects could be a factor here but I would be a bit skeptical of that angle, Eze is given lots of freedom to do things and he is the hub for actions in the attacking half of the pitch for Crystal Palace and that should give him plenty of opportunities and not negatively drag down the volume (it certain doesn’t for shots or key passes).

Carrying and dribbling are also a young player skill and with Eze completing his age 26 season that is typically post peak for these stats. Here is a look at how these skills change with age from Michael Caley from his expecting goals newsletter:

His technical level is still incredibly high and he is comfortable in the tight spaces vs using his speed to beat players so maybe he will be able to hold up a bit more and stay in this above average range longer than would be typically expected.

3.55 - Touches in the box, percentile: 64.7

6.14 - Deep Touches (within 25 yards of goal), percentile: 77.2

1.43 - Very Deep Touches (within 15 yards of goal), percentile: 67.4

29.53 - Passes Received, percentile: 41.2

5.35 - Progressive Passes Received, percentile: 61.6

4.67 - Final Third Entry Received, percentile: 51.3

1.36 - Penalty Area Passes Received, percentile: 60.8

0.48 - Crosses Received, percentile: 63.1

1.88 - Unsuccessful Touches (miscontrolling a pass or a bad touch), percentile: 57.2

The receiving numbers paint the picture of a lot of what we have seen above; he doesn’t get a ton of volume of receptions compared to others in his position but when he does, they are more often the result of the team progressing to him or him getting the ball in dangerous locations.

Ball Winning Metrics

2.97 - Possession Adjusted (padj) Defensive Duels Contested, percentile: 23.2

2.42 - Padj Tackles Attempted, percentile: 44.6

1.61 - Padj Successful Tackles, percentile: 54.4

54.3% - Tackle % (Successful Tackles/ Tackles + Fouls Committed), percentile: 95.2

33.3% - Dribbled Past % (Dribbled Past/ Tackles Attempted), percentile: 75.5

0.42 - Padj Clearances, percentile: 24.0

0.55 - Padj Fouls Committed, percentile: 5.8

1.61 - Padj Interceptions, percentile: 48.4

6.2 - Padj Ball Recoveries, percentile: 74.6

Given Eze’s attacking importance to Crystal Palace, he gets a bit of a break on needing to win the ball back. He still contributes to this but he isn’t going to be confused with a ball winning monster and that’s not uncommon for a player that has his role in a squad. There is nothing here that would make me concerned that he doesn’t do enough work off of the ball out of possession.

The pressing numbers would have him among the bottom of Arsenal’s wingers and attacking midfielders (data via StatsBomb):

• Eze - 14.4, 40th percentile

• Bukayo Saka - 16.8, 58th percentile

• Gabriel Martinelli - 17.2, 61st percentile

• Noni Madueke - 17.9, 66th percentile

• Martin Odegaard - 23.0, 88th percentile

• Leandro Trossard - 23.1, 89th percentile

He is an attacking player, and he’s been brought into the team for those attributes.

Final thoughts

This move is not one that matches the previous modus operandi for Arsenal.

The age isn’t perfect, there is a question of tactical/positional fit in the team, and the price is on the expensive side for the production and age.

These are valid reasons to have some uncertainty about the move, but it is going to be something that gets you a “shut up nerd ☝️🤓, we don’t need your well akschoully right now” response and I get it.

This is a move that you’d expect a bit more under Arsene Wenger where he never had enough of this type of player, one that had the buckets of technical ability and the ability to improvise outside of the structure of the team, creating something out of nothing.

That is something that the Arsenal team right now just doesn’t have with nearly enough abundance. Arsenal have Saka, sometimes Odegaard can conjure it, maybe Madueke could do it, and after that we are really stretching and squinting to see it.

Here is what James McNicholas reported at the start of the summer on Arsenal’s goals with additions this summer:

After Arsenal’s elimination against Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarter-finals, the feeling among the hierarchy was that the team lacked a certain X-factor in attack — something special to unlock defences on the biggest occasions.

This is exactly what Eze potentially represents for Arsenal and some of those other questions don’t matter nearly as much. He represents really well the type of capstone, luxury player that helps finish off a very good squad. Arsenal’s squad before this was excellent and could have won the Premier League or Champions League, with him in the squad there is that little bit extra that in those marginal matches where things are tough or the attack isn’t quite clicking to provide the impact to turn a draw into a win.

I am telling my inner nerd to shut up and enjoy what he can bring, because it is a beautiful story and he is a beautiful player that will make you fall in love with this game.

Welcome, Eze.

There is the old cliche that Champions find ways to win ugly and get the three points when they didn’t play at their best. Arsenal won ugly here and hopefully this will be a good omen that we point back to in May when looking back at this season.

I am not fully sure that is the case (I think Champions are generally just more often teams that don’t have performance where they don’t play well) but I will take it in this situation. Last season it was pretty rare for Arsenal to lose the xG battle, where it only happened 5 times when it was 11v11 and Arsenal were still able to turn that into wins twice.

This season it is one played, and one won but I really hope to not need to come back to this often.

Let’s get deep into this very interesting match from Arsenal.

Manchester United vs Arsenal: The Graphics

Manchester United vs Arsenal: The Debrief

7 - Wins for Arsenal against Manchester United at Old Trafford since 1997-98 in all competitions in 31 matches played, winning just 22.5% of the fixtures

0.97 - Arsenal’s points per game at old Trafford over that time period, with Arsenal going 7-9-15 in those matches

-21 - Arsenal’s goal difference at old Trafford over that time period, Arsenal scored 28 (never more than 2) and Manchester United 49 (including an 8, a 6, and three 3 goals scored matches).

0 - Wins for Arsenal in the Premier League at Old Trafford between September 2006 and November 2020, a run of 13 matches without a win and the team suffered 8 losses over that run.

3 - Wins at Old Trafford under Mike Arteta, with Arsenal going 3-1-2 in his six matches as manager. That is 1.67 points per match with a 50% win rate, in the period before he took over that was 0.8 points per match and a 16% win rate.

It doesn’t fully sit perfectly with my cold calculating stats heart but even if I tell myself it is probably just randomness and us telling a story after the fact to fit the patterns we see, there are just fixtures that have that little extra about them.

This is one of those for Arsenal.

These types of fixtures are often because of the talent of the opposition (Anfield and the Etihad are good examples of those now because Liverpool and Manchester City have been historically great lately) but we can also see it at Goodson Park where Arsenal have underperformed where the talent of the teams would suggest.

Manchester United away has been a mixture of both, the matches in the first period of the Premier League were always the toughest of the season, with Manchester United the team that dominated the Premier League and it had the added weight of it feeling like the team was playing against 12 men given the atmosphere plus the way that Alex Ferguson’s aura got his team the extra benefit from referees. The later portion of the matches has seen Manchester United fall off significantly but that didn’t change that Arsenal continued to struggle in this fixture.

Mikel Arteta had this to say after the match and I thought it really resonated:

“It was 18 years, or 22 years here at Old Trafford without winning before I came, and now I go in the dressing room, we won here the first game, and we are not still happy. It's a good sign.”

The number of years isn’t right but it matches the vibe of what it felt like before he came, there was no expectation of winning this fixture. That has changed and now Arsenal expect to win this match and just accomplishing that isn’t good enough from this team.

There is a lot of truth to that, it is great to have won but there are plenty of reason to not be happy with the performance right now.

9 - Shots total from Arsenal in this match, with just 5 coming from open play

2 - Shots from Arsenal’s forwards in this match and one of them might be a bit generous to Gabriel Martinelli

0.28 - Arsenal’s xG for all of the shots beside the close range nod home that Riccardo Calafiori scored

Overall, the attacking fluency was off all game and when Arsenal did find themselves in potentially good situations in the final third they lacked the composure to execute the final ball.

We will go into more depth on this below, but Arsenal played in a different way than they had last season and it didn’t look like anything close to the finished product here.

Even the defensive side of the game, which is usually one Arsenal’s major strengths did not live up to the expectations.

22 - Shots for Manchester United in this match, this would have been the sixth highest that they recorded last season and is tied for what they had combined last season against Arsenal in three matches played, they had 5 against Arsenal at the Emirates in the League, 7 against Arsenal in the FA Cup and 10 that they generated at home.

1.6 - Expected goals for Manchester United, this would have been their 10th best tally last season

34 - Touches in the box against Arsenal, this would have been their 7th best tally last season and is more than they had combined in the Premier League fixtures last season where they had 16 and 6

Arsenal did well to keep Manchester United from generating any major clean chances here (0 big chances allowed) and limited the average quality to more speculative efforts but overall seeing this level of volume doesn’t give you the warm fuzzy feelings.

The worry that I came away from this performance was that there was real pressure that Manchester United put Arsenal under in the final minutes of the match.

Here are the stats from 67 to the final whistle (Arsenal - United):

Possession - 34.8% to 65.2%

Pass Completion % - 64.1% to 80%

Final third pass attempts - 19 to 43

Touches in the box - 5 to 23

Shots - 2 to 11

xG - 0.1 to 1.1

That is just not how you would expect things to play out for Arsenal. Even away from home I expect Arsenal to not be pushed this far back and to be bunkered in front of their goal like that.

We have seen Arsenal drop into the mid/low block previously and limit what teams can create against them and that was not what this was in this case. There was lots of danger and this is something where it felt like Arsenal were inviting the chance for variance to bite them and restart the issue of dropping points from a winning position.

There was a lot of last ditch defending in the box and there was a flash point decision between William Saliba and Matheus Cunha where there was contact on the player with no touch on the ball.

With the way that Simon Hooper had called the game up to this point, he was not giving a lot of grace towards Arsenal players on the 50/50 duels when they made contact with a United player. Arsenal were whistled for 19 fouls in this match (this would have been the most they had in a match last season) and this in the context of the match very well could have been a very painful number 20.

Overall, for this match, David Raya was a deserved man of the match in this match and he was busy and important for keeping Arsenal in this match and coming away with a clean sheet.

It is good that it happened that was from a result view but the process where your keeper is called upon to be that busy is not the ideal way that Arsenal play.

Arsenal’s change of style is apparent but still a work in progress

2.2 - Direct yards up the field per second while in possession for Arsenal in this match

1.9 - Arsenal’s average direct speed per second last season in the Premier League

5 - Matches last season where they attacked at this speed or more directly (Spurs away, Liverpool home, Newcastle away, Nottingham Forest away, and Ipswitch away)

72 - Attacking possessions for Arsenal in this match

1 - Match last season where they had this many possessions in a match, Liverpool home where they also had 72 possessions.

61.6 - Arsenal’s average attacking possessions in their matches last season, the fewest of any team in the Premier League last season

40 - Quick (1 second or less since the pass was received) pass attempts in this match for Arsenal, 13% of their total passes attempted in this match.

9 - Passing sequences of 7 or more passes, 15 passing sequences of 5 or more passes

0 - Shots from direct attacks for fast breaks

There is a clear change of style from Arsenal in this match, and it is a bit of a continuation of what we saw in the final preseason match against Athletic Club, where the team looked to play up the field more directly and quicker.

Last season Arsenal were one of the slowest in possession teams in the League and they played with full control limiting the total possessions for both teams. Here the intent to move quickly was evident, this match ended up more open and back and forth than just about any Arsenal match has been over the last two years.

Here is a nice compilation of Arsenal’s transition attacks in this match from twitter user AFC_Adi06.

The execution on these plays still requires improvement, with both the passing and the choice of runs not always looking ideal to maximize the ability to turn these into shots.

It is still early, and the team is adapting a new tactic that has the potential to add more to Arsenal’s attacking numbers. This is a positive overall move that I am happy to see and I am willing to give some grace here as the team works out the growing pains of where they pick their spots and works to become more effective on this.

Gyokeres debut shows that he will still need time to adapt

0 - Shots

11 - Pass Attempts with 5 Passes Completed

45.5% - Pass completion % on an expected completion percentage of 70.7%

0 - Key Passes

18 - Touches

3 - Touches in the box, 10 total in the final third

0 - Dribbles Completed from 1 attempt, with 2 times fouled

2/3 - Attacking ground duels

1 - Time dispossessed

3 - Miscontrolled touches

0 - Progressive carries

6 - Long Pass Received

5 - Progressive Passes Received

2 - Pass in the box Received

0 - Tackles

3 - Fouls committed

0/3 - On defensive ground duels

1 - Aerial duel won out of 6 aerial duels contested

This was not the perfect debut for Arsenal’s striker.

One of the hallmarks of Gyokeres in Portugal was that he was a shot monster, he had no matches last season where he failed to take a shot, and just six where he played 60 or minutes and only had one shot, he had more matches where he took 6 or more shots (11) than matches where he took 1 or fewer last season (6). Starting off with a blank for shots and key passes is discouraging.

What Manchester United did in this match highlights some of the ways that I think we will see teams try to deal with his potential threat.

One of the items that was a reoccurring theme watching him at Sporting, is that when he had matches where he was limited from being able to get inside the width of the box his ability to threaten was heavily diminished. That is exactly what you saw here in this match.

This is something that Arsenal implemented quite effectively when they played against him with Sporting and it is the same tactic that his former coach used here.

It will be really interesting to see how Arsenal are able to try and implement counters to this and get him into the areas where he can offer more threat. There was times where he could do better with the service that he got and there will need to be some adaption to recognizing the potential runs that he will be at his best off of.

Martin Odegaard grabs the game

44 - Pass Attempts with 31 completed, led Arsenal

70.5% - Pass completion % on an expected 76.3%

6 - Final 3rd Entry Passes completed, led all players

6 - Progressive Passes, led Arsenal

5 - Long Passes completed, 100% completion percentage

1 - Key Pass worth 0.11 xA

2 - Shots worth 0.06 xG

3 - Dribbles Completed out of 4 attempted with 1 time fouled, led Arsenal

0 - Times dispossessed

4/5 - Attacking ground duels won

10 - Progressive Carries, led all players

5 - Carry into Final Third, led all players

1 - Tackle with 0 times dribbled past and 1 foul committed

1/2 - Defensive ground duels won

1 - Interception

7 - Ball Recoveries, led all players

5 - Clearances

6.75 - Fields Gained (total progressive distance passing and carrying scaled to the length of the field), led Arsenal

On a day where Arsenal were far from their best, Odegaard stood out as one of the players that was playing at something close to the usual standards. It was not his best game by any stretch but he was pretty clearly the player out there keeping Arsenal in the match and offering the ability to get them up the field.

It is still not ideal to have Odegaard need as much on the ball time in the defensive and middle thirds of the pitch but in this match he was called upon it and provided pivotal contributions to help Declan Rice (who looked very far from his best) and Martin Zubimendi (an up and down debut) cope with the match.

The execution in the final third wasn’t there from him as much as we would want but that was a similar story for Arsenal as a whole.

If Arsenal are going to do the things we hope this season, getting more from Odegaard will be a major reason why. This performance did show that determination and after the noise about his suitability as the captain, was the type of day out that should quiet people.

My general view is that I don’t put too much stock into preseason nor the overall results and even really the performances don’t get me too high or low. I think you can get some information from these matches, but these aren’t games that should drastically move our opinions given the goals/preparation/flow/lineups are just so different than you’ll see starting next week.

In case you need a recap, here is how the preseason played out for Arsenal.

Arsenal in Singapore played Milan and Newcastle:

Arsenal then moved on to Hong Kong playing Tottenham:

Arsenal were then back in England for two matches against Spanish opposition at the Emirates Stadium:

Overall, Arsenal went 3-0-2 in preseason scoring 9 and allowing 6. We will break this down in a bit more detail below.

Before preseason started, I had hoped that we would be able to get some visibility into how some of the key position battles might play out and we didn’t quite leave with things too much clearer.

With Jurrien Timber recovering from injury we didn’t get to see too much of him at right back to see the contrast between him and Ben White. It was the same story at left back, with Myles Lewis-Skelly and Riccardo Calafiori.

The striker battle was complicated by a niggle that kept Kai Havertz out of the Villarreal match and Gyokeres was delayed joining by his transfer dragging on beyond when the team left.

It’s not the end of the world; it just means that we will see how things play out over the opening couple of months of the season with the stakes higher rather than in the preseason environment.

Here is how the overall minutes usage looked for Arsenal in preseason:

No real surprises here for me. The first few matches saw the whole squad getting used and as things progressed, players that we expect to be major contributors in the first team ramped up closer to a full load.

Arsenal’s Preseason Attacking Numbers

1.2 - Non-penalty goals per match

1.14 - Non-penalty expected goals per match

11.0 - Open play shots per match

0.076 - Arsenal’s average xG per shot

38.6 - Touches in the box per match

3.27 - Touches within 25 yards of goal needed per shot

The shooting numbers in preseason haven’t been the prettiest. The volume of shots has been pretty good but until the final match of preseason they had been generally pretty low quality on average. This didn’t calm any nerves given that this was also an issue for stretches last season, especially when the team was dealing with a front line that wasn’t full strength.

Some of the copium here is that the team was still often mixing and matching lineups (against a slate of strong opposition as well) and that defensive solidity is often ahead of attack and the dependence on a bit more intricate patterns and understanding.

Looking now at some of the buildup numbers.

107.7 - Buildup passing efficiency

39.4 - Final third entries per match, on 74.8% completion percentage

35.2 - Progressive passes completed per match

44.2% - The percentage of Arsenal’s matches that were forward, 24.8% backwards, 30.9% square.

10.6% - The percentage of Arsenal’s passes that were long, completing 58.6% of them

42.2% - The percentage of Arsenal’s passes that were medium distance, completing 89.4% of them

47.2% - The percentage of Arsenal’s passes that were short, completing 86.3% of them

You can see in the overall team radar that the small sample of just five matches really can skew things. Overall, Arsenal fill things out pretty amazingly but in the preseason, it didn’t turn into the most important stuff of clear chances and goals.

Arsenal’s Preseason Defensive Numbers

0.8 - Arsenal’s non-penalty goals allowed per match

0.32 - Arsenal’s non-penalty expected goals allowed per match

2.8 - Arsenal’s open play shots allowed per match

0.10 - Arsenal’s average shot quality allowed

11.0 - Touches in the box per match allowed by Arsenal

2.56 - Arsenal’s opponents touches within 25 yards of goal needed per shot

Arsenal’s biggest problem in preseason was that they were a bit sloppy, they had a number of errors that gifted chances to the opposition but that was largely the extent of the threat that was created against them. This has been an issue at times in the past with Arsenal’s level of comfort and philosophy of playing out from the back but it is not generally something that leaves me too worried about the defense headed into the season.

Overall, the defense looked quite strong.

8.5 - Passes allowed per defensive action

98.4% - Buildup passing efficiency allowed (this is lower than expected and shows good effectiveness at limiting team’s ability to pass against the Arsenal defense)

8.2 - Touches allowed per match within 25 yards of goal

9.4 - Final third entries allowed per match

There was some hot finishing against Arsenal and that will happen over five match runs but the overall numbers continue to back the belief that Arsenal are an elite defensive team.

It’s nice to come away from preseason without any major issues and it does look like while it didn’t go perfectly to plan, the team looks to have ramped up effectively to take on the tough early season schedule.

This is coming out a bit later than normal because I am just back from a much-needed vacation.

This was a transfer that I didn’t expect to drag out as long as it did once it became clear that Arsenal had made their choice on Gyokeres as their man. That initial update came July 6th and it took another 3 weeks to get over the line. Having just written that, it doesn’t seem that bad but being online while the minutia of the deal was hashed out plus the team leaving for their Asian tour without him made it seem much worse.

The deal is done now, and the player is with the team and could make his debut on Thursday against Tottenham. Let’s dig into the player that Arsenal have signed.

Viktor Gyökeres: The Debrief

Like always we start off with the radars, and distribution charts.

The first thing that jumps out is that he really fills out the important parts that you want to see from a striker. This is one of the most prolific scorers in the World right now, no player has scored more than him over the last two seasons combined.

Sorting by goals scored over the last two years and signing that player is exciting for a fanbase.

Getting a striker re-enforcement was a major need this summer and the team has gone and done it. Let’s break things down a bit more overall on Arsenal’s newest striker.

All stats are per 90 minutes, from time played in the domestic league, they are compared against ‘Big 5’ League players that have played at least 10 90’s, with 60% of the minutes coming in the same position, from 2017/18 to present.

Attacking and Creative Metrics:

0.86 - Non-Penalty Goals, percentile 99.2

0.73 - Non-Penalty xG, percentile 98.4

3.48 - Open Play Shots, percentile 98.2

0.33 - Shots per touch within 25 yards of goal, percentile 26.3

0.16 - xG Per Shot, percentile 78.6

1.02 - Shots in Prime Locations (within 12 yards of goal), percentile 84.0

0.16 - Post Shot xG Added (The difference in xG of a shot and the estimated finishing quality Post Shot xG), percentile 99.1

56.8% - On Target Percentage, percentile 97.7

24.8% - Shot Usage (the percentage of total shots while playing that the player attempted), percentile 88.5

44.9% - xG Usage (the percentage of total xG while playing that the player took the shot from), percentile 98.4

If there is one trait above all others that you want from a striker, it is that he gets lots of shots in good locations. Gyokeres is a guy that for his career that has generated shot volume and especially shot volume inside of the box. There are just few players that have reliably shot more than him over the last few seasons and even fewer that have done it with the same average chance quality and shooting locations.

The other thing that jumps out here is that he is an incredibly accurate shooter. This last season he put 57% of his shots on target, that is an absurd number, and it is probably one that will not repeat going forward but he has shown that he will hit the target more often than average (49% for his career).

Our expectations for the player should not and I believe for most, will not, be for him to repeat this in the Premier League but it is hard to not think wow for what he did in Portugal.

0.22 - Assists, percentile 75.5

0.23 - Open Play xA, percentile 92.4

1.85 - Open Play Key Passes, percentile 95.3

0.69 - Shot Creating Action xG Assisted, percentile 98.2

14.2% - Key Pass Usage (the percentage of key passes while playing that the player assisted), percentile 64.8

3.45 - Passes Completed with 25 yards of goal, percentile 87.3

2.24 - Passes Completed Pass inside the box (includes passes starting in the box), percentile 81.0

0.13 - Crosses Completed within 25 yards of Goal, percentile 42.8

0.77 - Crosses Attempted, percentile 58.1

16.7% - Cross Completion Percentage, percentile 38.8

Creatively what Gyokeres has done has been a bit secondary to him looking for his own shooting opportunity. That is not a bad trait for a striker at all and overall he seems to have solid decision making on when a teammate is in a really good position off of his work and can get him the ball.

Passing and Ball Progression Metrics:

88.6% - Pass Efficiency (actual passing completion divided by the expected completion percentage), percentile 28.6

4.8% - Passing Usage (the percentage of total passes while playing that the player attempted), percentile 13.3

22.4 - Pass Attempts, percentile 32.6

71.4% - Pass Completion Percentage, percentile 49.1

2.7% - Middle 3rd Passing Usage, percentile 1.8

11.4% - Attacking 3rd Passing Usage, percentile 31.7

7.03 - Attacking 3rd Pass Attempts, percentile 8.8

76.8% - Attacking 3rd Pass Completion Percentage, percentile 31.7

1.44 - xG Chain (total xG involved in), percentile 99.2

0.45 - xG Buildup (total xG involved in, excluding the shot and key pass), percentile 90.9

22.3% - xG Buildup Usage (the percentage of total xG while on the field that he participated in the buildup to), percentile 74.6

2.68 - Long Pass Attempts, percentile 70.3

44.1% - Long Pass Completion Percentage, percentile 22.6

2.20 - Progressive Passes Completed, percentile 58.4

0.91 - Fields Gained (progressive yards through passing and carrying dived by the length of the field), percentile 66.8

Gyokeres is a final third type player. He is not going to be confused with a false nine type that will want to drop in and combine and the passing numbers reflect that.

Carrying, Dribbles, and Receiving Metrics

6.20 - Progressive Carries, percentile 84.6

1.37 - Final Third Entry Carry, percentile 47.2

3.07 - Carries into the box, percentile 99.6

4.31 - Dribbles, Attempted, percentile 85.8

1.92 - Dribbles, Completed, percentile 83.4

1.69 - Dispossessed, percentile 62.0

2.46 - Fouls Suffered, percentile 91.0

One of the traits that really jumps out with Gyokeres in addition to shooting is that he loves to drive with the ball at his feet. This is something that both attackers Arsenal have brought in this summer share. Gyokeres architype carry is receiving in the left channel and being able to drive into the box, he does this over and over and will hunt the ability to get enough space to get a shot off.

10.38 - Touches in the box, percentile 99.8

13.64 - Deep Touches (within 25 yards of goal), percentile 99.8

27.3 - Passes Received, percentile 56.4

11.47 - Progressive Passes Received, percentile 98.6

11.15 - Final Third Entry Passes Received, percentile 99.5

3.61 - Penalty Area Passes Received, percentile 95.6

1.12 - Crosses Received, percentile 76.0

3.03 - Unsuccessful Touches (miscontrolling a pass or a bad touch), percentile 25.9

The receiving stats match again the expectations for the player. He isn’t going to be massively involved in buildup play for a team, but he will be the target for when the play is ready to have the end product.

What else shows up here is the transition plays that he can help be a part of. He lives for being able to run on to balls played long into the channel that he can try to use his speed to beat defenders to and create chaos. There really aren’t many of those players in the Arsenal team right now and that could potentially be a potent weapon for the team to turn to.

1.15 - Aerial, Won, percentile 49.4

50.0% - Aerial Duel%, percentile 84.9

For a player that has his athletic traits and size (6-1½) Gyokeres is poor in the air. With Sporting he hasn’t been a target for a lot of balls that he needs to challenge for really seems to only go in for them when he has a good chance of winning them. He is not the type of striker that wants the long ball to him but rather the long ball into space.

Ball Winning Metrics

1.52 - Possession Adjusted (padj) Defensive Duels, percentile 4.5

0.54 - Padj Tackles Attempted, percentile 3.0

0.33 - Padj Successful Tackles, percentile 6.2

21.6% - Tackle % (Successful Tackles/ Tackles + Fouls Committed), percentile 20.7

38.5% - Drib Past %, percentile 66.3

0.82 - Padj Clearances, percentile 60.9

0.99 - Padj Fouls Committed, percentile 25.1

0.62 - Padj Interceptions, percentile 16.7

3.13 - Padj Ball Recoveries, percentile 44.9

14.31 - Padj Pressures, percentile 48.0

He isn’t a highly active ball winner with Sporting. This is probably a reflection of his importance to the attack and the threat on transition that they would rather have him be ready to run after possession is won back vs him trying to win back possession. This will be something to watch as he plays for Arsenal because it is a sharp departure from Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus who are two of the best pressing forwards in the game.

Final thoughts

Arsenal have signed a striker and that is exciting.

I have been pretty clear that I thought basically all of the options this season had some sort of worry and downside attached to them so that I struggled to make a clear distinction on what my preference was for Arsenal to target.

With Gyokeres there is no denying the video game type numbers that he has put up in the Portuguese League. What there is here is worrying about the translation of those numbers to a tougher League.

The bear case for this transfer is built around that. He has taken an unconventional path to Arsenal so there aren’t easy historical comparable players to help give clues about how this might turn out. There aren’t really enough transfers between the Leagues to really say too much about how the numbers change overall. He has done a lot of his damage against teams that are significantly worse than what he will face in the Premier League on a team that was by relative strength more superior to the opponents than he will have with Arsenal.

One swallow does not make a summer any more than one player translating (or not) doesn’t prove how a player will translate.

The most recent high-profile transfer from Portugal to England is Darwin Nunez from Benfica to Liverpool. He also put up video game numbers in his final season before moving (actually scoring non-penalty goals at a higher rate than Gyokeres) but has been a bit of a disappointment on Merseyside (they would love to move him this summer).

Overall, however his numbers stood up pretty well on the move to Liverpool outside of the goalscoring.

The bull case is that he is just a late bloomer and that he will just bang at Arsenal continuing that he is one of the best pure goal scorers in the World. He has experience in England (albeit in the Championship) so that will not be a culture shock for him and while he will be playing tougher opponents he will be surrounded by better talent as well making that less of an issue.

My median expectation is probably something closer to his numbers in the Champions League.

The spread of outcomes here is larger than what you would want on a player that you are making a significant investment in. That is just also a bit of the reality of the market for high-end strikers right now period, where everyone has some sort of blemish that keeps them from being the obvious go to pick.

The fee isn’t outlandish at £55m + £8.5m and it is combined with a pretty hefty wage at around £225k-£250k a week. That’s not a guaranteed starter money but that is the type of wage that if this doesn’t work out that Arsenal would need to eat quite a bit of it for a while before they could move on from him. If he keeps up anything close to his previous production this will look like a bargain and even if he just hits something closer to his Champions League numbers, it is a solid deal

I still have a lot of questions, unresolved worries, and curiosity about how he can change the dynamics, but I cannot deny that I am excited to see him in the shirt and running around on the pitch..

Welcome, Viktor.