Arsenal finally took the big swing on an attacker this past offseason, signing their first number 9 since Kai Haver — er, Gabriel Jesus in 2022. And while seemingly all anyone ever wants is “big guy, kick ball hard,” some of the more refined elements of a striker’s game have been largely missing this season - the ability to consistently hold up play without losing the ball, getting on the end of crosses in the air and making deft movements in the box, to name a few.

Not all of that stuff is easy to measure through a formula, which is why I put a ton of weight on actual film study as well. Last summer that led me in a different direction than what Arsenal did, though the old version of the ADAM formula made the same recommendation.

So, how about going forward? It’s possible Arsenal could move for a new attacker this offseason, and if they decide they’re not done at the number 9 spot, some of the names below will certainly come up.

As per usual, things to keep in mind as you read: This is based on stats, and stats aren’t always perfect. I have always encouraged watching the games for yourself rather than creating an entire opinion based off only the numbers.

The final rank is based on full two-season score, with guys in the top 25 fitting your standard profile for “transfer-friendly age,” which is usually slightly pre-prime. Let’s get into it!

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What a joy it is to do a ranking in a position where nobody thinks anyone on Arsenal is disappointing.

Quite the opposite, in fact - Gabriel and Saliba aren’t perfect, but they’re probably (definitely?) the league’s best — and probably Europe’s best — CB tandem, and the numbers do appear to back that up. Well done, numbers.

As per usual, things to keep in mind as you read: This is based on stats, and stats aren’t always perfect. I have always encouraged watching the games for yourself rather than creating an entire opinion based off only the numbers. This is at its most true when we’re talking about defensive abilities, so keep that in mind.

The final rank is based on full two-season score, with guys in the top 25 fitting your standard profile for “transfer-friendly age,” which is usually slightly pre-prime.

Okey dokey, let’s get into it!

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What is a slump, anyway?

As an Arsenal supporter, that question has powered some big, deep conversations about the club’s best players over the past couple of seasons. And for a spreadsheet nerd like me who needs to watch the games instead of my rows and columns, the definition of “slump” or “off it” seems to come with a higher bar every season.

Was Ødegaard prime De Bruyne last season? No, of course not! But if you put him in a room with 99 randomly selected attacking midfielders, he likely had better numbers and output than 90 of them last season.

This season, the same is true of Bukayo Saka. More detail below, but Arsenal’s right-sided talisman has nine goal contributions in 22 PL 90s a season after getting 16 in three fewer 90s, and that’s spurred a lot of conversation whether he’s slumping, or maybe even whether he’s peaked.

He’s obviously not been perfect every week out this season, but as I sat down to start running these numbers, I didn’t feel a lot of nervousness about whether they’d back the idea that Saka has fallen off. Take a look below and you’ll get a strong sense of why.

As per usual, things to keep in mind as you read: This is based on stats, and stats aren’t always perfect. I have always encouraged watching the games for yourself rather than creating an entire opinion based off only the numbers.

The final rank is based on full two-season score, with guys in the top 25 fitting your standard profile for “transfer-friendly age,” which is usually slightly pre-prime.

So, just where is Saka among the best of the best? Scroll down!

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Fullback is such a tricky position to really judge, because there are simply so many ways to play the role.

Sometimes, a Jeremie Frimpong is your best bet because he can bomb forward and create chances. Other times, a “centre-back” like Jurrien Timber is the better of the two because he can progress the ball against a press and mop up when attacks get beyond the high line.

To that effect, I even hesitate to call this list a “fullback” ranking. After all, Patrick Dorgu has not entirely been playing as a fullback this season. What about Federico Dimarco or Alex Grimaldo? I don’t know, but they’re all in the same list, so deal with it!

At its core, this list is intended to give you the list of the guys who — to the best of my judgment — give you the strongest blend of defensive security, ball progression, carrying and security, creative passing and goal threat possible. As in life, there are many ways to skin this cat, and below is how I’ve done the skinning.

Things to keep in mind: This is based on stats, and stats aren’t always perfect, particularly for defensive players. I don’t watch spreadsheets — no matter what my haters might say — and neither should you.

The final rank is based on full two-season score, with guys in the top 25 fitting your standard profile for “transfer-friendly age,” which is usually slightly pre-prime.

Anyway, that’s probably enough. Let’s get into some numbers, shall we?

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Every top club needs a guy in the middle who makes the attack purr. Some people call that a number 10, some an attacking midfielder, but the truth is they come in many forms.

Whether your creative outlet is a second striker, dribbly boi or a pre-assist machine, the ADAM 2.0 formula is designed to find and recognize them. And, selfishly, I think it does a pretty good job! So let’s dig into who’s standing out in this category as we sit here in late February.

As usual, a disclaimer that this ranking is based entirely on numbers, and I always recommend taking in some matches themselves before forming your full opinion. What you see below doesn’t necessarily represent how I’d rank players, though sometimes I do agree.

Now, let’s take a look!

Radars updated through February 23.

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My dearest CannonStats subscribers and readers,

They tried to take away the data and ruin the ADAM 2.0 formula. They have failed.

With a huge thanks to Scott, I’ve been able to get creative and adapt, replacing what I used to have with what we have moving forward. And though it meant a bit of a break in the rankings pieces here, we’re finally back and cooking with rankings once again.

Today, it’s the turn of those central midfielders who aren’t full 10s but aren’t deep-lying, defensive destroyers either.

As usual, a disclaimer that this ranking is based entirely on numbers, and I always recommend taking in some matches themselves before forming your full opinion. What you see below doesn’t necessarily represent how I’d rank players, though sometimes I do agree.

Now, who needs an intro? Let’s go!

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The ADAM formula is dead, long live the ADAM formula.

If you missed it, some news shook the football stats community last night, which was that FBRef and Opta had broken up, effectively rendering the former site dead in the water from an advanced stats perspective.

Among the decision’s far-reaching impacts — the freshly retooled ADAM formula will have to move forward with a new set of foundation data, which is especially crappy news for someone who just spent an entire summer trying to perfect the damn thing.

That said, I do still recognize that my own plight is relatively small potatoes compared to the impacts to football fans more broadly. The football media and fan discussion spaces have been flooded lately with tons of disinformation, and while FBRef’s green bars could be used to fuel that in the hands of the wrong user, they also served as exactly what the site’s name would imply: FBRef was a reference point, a place to learn that certainly inspired more people than just me to take a deeper interest in the way the game is measured and analyzed. Discussion about the sport is worse off for this decision, and if some of the rumors are true, it’s for the absolute worst reason. But it’s not my place to talk about that here.

Thankfully, one final pull of the numbers did take place before the site was wiped, and we get to use that today to provide update one on deeper-lying midfielders throughout Europe. So rather than turning this further into a eulogy, let’s dig in.

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This whole striker transfer thing is pretty hard to figure out. For what is ostensibly a pretty simple job to describe — go score goals — identifying just who or what will make for a star at the highest levels of football has proven exceedingly difficult for even the brightest minds to manage football clubs, let alone the dimmest.

And yet, people carry some of the strongest opinions about this position in particular. Case in point, going into last summer Arsenal employed this guy at striker, courtesy of friend-of-the-blog Billy Carpenter:

Twenty-six goal contributions. Imagine that coming in one season! And yet some people felt that not only was he not good as a striker, but replacing him or upgrading upon him was a must. Now, we can’t treat every opinion as exceedingly valid, but it was an opinion that was at least somewhat common, and perhaps one day I’ll unleash the torrent of screenshotted tweets I’ve got from last spring and summer that now look pretty damn foolish.

They look foolish, of course, because the guy Arsenal bought hasn’t quite taken off. But neither, really, have most other strikers purchased across the Premier League this season. Heaven knows Alexander Isak struggled before his injury. Nick Woltemade’s production has come and gone. Hugo Ekitike has scored a lot, but he’s running awfully hot (maybe we’ll tackle that in a future blog). Liam Delap’s numbers haven’t been good, nor have Benjamin Šeško’s, for various reasons. Yoane Wissa, Mathys Tel and Charalampos Kostoulas have barely played.

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If you didn’t already miss Gabriel at the back for Arsenal, this piece is going to make you miss him. The Brazilian has been awesome for the Gunners this season, and thankfully I’ve fixed my formula to recognize his awesomeness.

It’s not always easy to measure what a CB contributes to a football club, because a good CB performance means something *not* happening, but I think I’ve gotten a little close with the below. So join me, won’t you? Let’s take a look at who’s doing the best out there among the transfer-aged CBs in Europe!

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I did it! I’ve fixed ADAM so it finally realizes Bukayo Saka is terrific.

How, you ask? I cannot reveal my secrets, but suffice it to say that players with high usage were getting unfairly penalized, and the formula needed to account a bit better for the fact that great players touch the ball a lot. And now, thanks to that fix, Bukayo is a king again.

The formula doesn’t elevate him that high for last year, mostly due to the fact that he missed a bunch of time and it does reward availability, but the effects were apparent on 2023-2024, when Saka posted the second-highest winger score overall behind only Son-Heung Min.

Saka still ended up top-30 in my nine tracked leagues for last season despite playing a little more than half the minutes of guys on the list. Mohamed Salah, of course, topped the thing.

But that’s the past — we’re looking at the present and the future here! So let’s just dive in, shall we?

The Premier League

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Boy, Arsenal have some great fullbacks. And at the risk of devaluing my own work here, I didn’t necessarily need a formula to tell me that. But despite Timber and Calafiori’s emergence, the club would also be well-advised to stay informed on the top fullbacks in the market, for a couple of reasons.

For one, Ben White is getting a little on the aged side, now 28 and due to see his contract expire in 2028 (plus an option year). His off-and-on fitness due to recent injuries, were it to continue, could conspire with his age to lead Arsenal to move on to a new right back by then. On the left side, Myles Lewis-Skelly’s move away from fullback seems like an inevitability. Calafiori and Piero Hincapié could certainly be the long-term plan, but you would think Myles moving would create a need for either a left-footer at CB or a new left back.

Not that I needed a reason, but all of that seems like a pretty good reason to be tracking the best of the younger fullbacks!

Before we dive into full rankings, my standard disclaimers:

• This list is created relying fully on statistics from this season and last. Players are rated using a whole bunch of data points of varying weights.

• Minimum for inclusion was 1.0 90s, or 90 minutes of domestic league play so far this campaign. Players with more starts and minutes were weighted favorably.

• I don’t follow a hard-and-fast age limit, but I do prioritize players on the younger side of the “peak age” spectrum.

• All scores are subject to an adjustment according to league strength, so you shouldn’t have to mentally raise or lower rankings to make it more “fair.”

• Last but not least: I always encourage a healthy dose of the eye test before forming a final opinion on any player, so please consume this list responsibly. This list does not necessarily reflect my personal rankings, as I have been known to disagree with my own formulas from time to time. This is particularly true for defensive players, since good defense typically means the absence of an event.

Now, let’s get into the data!

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Everybody loves a number 10. Every central attacking midfielder is a little different, with some more adept at the razzle-dazzle dribbles and breath-catching passes, some more of the lather-rinse-repeat passers who seem to thread endless balls to teammates in the box and stitch move after move together, and others going an almost second striker route, popping up in space, receiving on the half-turn and creating chances for themselves.

That wide range can make attacking midfielders kind of a tough rank, because there are many ways to skin that proverbial cat. But as I am wont to do, I’ll rank ‘em anyway! Today’s list details the best of the best at creative play, be that passing, carrying or shooting, who also bring value in the other key areas of the game.

Before we dive into full rankings, some things I always like to cover off:

• This list is created relying fully on statistics from this season and last. Players are rated using a whole bunch of data points of varying weights.

• Minimum for inclusion was 1.0 90s, or 90 minutes of domestic league play so far this campaign. Players with more starts and minutes were weighted favorably.

• I don’t follow a hard-and-fast age limit, but I do prioritize players on the younger side of the “peak age” spectrum.

• All scores are subject to an adjustment according to league strength, so you shouldn’t have to mentally raise or lower rankings to make it more “fair.”

• Last but not least: I always encourage a healthy dose of the eye test before forming a final opinion on any player, so please consume this list responsibly. This list does not necessarily reflect my personal rankings, as I have been known to disagree with my own formulas from time to time.

Now, let’s get into the data!

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There is allegedly international football going on right now, but you could’ve fooled me. These breaks are better spent updating formulas and rankings for me, and that of course means I’m back with another list of players, again in the middle of the park.

Last time out, we took a look at the deepest of the deep midfielders, the number sixes. Today, we pivot (get it??) to the guys meant to go box-to-box, who become attackers when their sides have the ball, and defenders when their sides don’t. You may call them all-action midfielders, 8s, or just good old-fashioned “central midfielders.”

To be strong in this ranking, you really can’t be a one-trick pony. You’ve got to contribute in all phases, from defense to buildup and chance creation or even goal scoring. To give you an idea, some names that have popped up high on the ADAM rankings here over the years include David Silva, Paul Pogba, Dele Alli, Sergej Milinković-Savić, Rodrigo De Paul, Frenkie de Jong, Toni Kroos, İlkay Gündoğan, Nicolò Barella, Pedri and Jude Bellingham.

These are not all midfielders who play precisely the same role, and to be clear, certain players on this list could easily move into a single pivot or playmaking number 10 role. But I wrote this piece, and I consider them 8s, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

Before we dive into full rankings, some things I always like to cover off:

• This list is created relying fully on statistics from this season and last. Players are rated using a whole bunch of data points of varying weights.

• Minimum for inclusion was 2.0 90s, or 180 minutes of domestic league play so far this campaign. Players with more starts and minutes were weighted favorably.

• I don’t follow a hard-and-fast age limit, but I do prioritize players on the younger side of the “peak age” spectrum.

• All scores are subject to an adjustment according to league strength, so you shouldn’t have to mentally raise or lower rankings to make it more “fair.”

• Last but not least: I always encourage a healthy dose of the eye test before forming a final opinion on any player, so please consume this list responsibly. This list does not necessarily reflect my personal rankings, as I have been known to disagree with my own formulas from time to time.

Now, let’s get into the data!

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I’ve spent so much time looking back on the past, I almost forgot how much I enjoyed looking at the present state of affairs.

Since my ADAM series ended about a month ago, I’ve been pretty much non-step revising formulas, applying the lessons I learned with my re-writing history experiment in the hopes that what I’d emerge with was something even better. And I think early returns are looking good!

As we did with that series, I want to start our look at 2025-2026 performance in midfield, namely with the metronomes, the single-pivots, the deep-lying playmakers. Maybe you call them holding midfielders, or defensive midfielders, or 6s. But these are the guys who are meant to hold things down in the center of the park, shield the back line and keep the ball moving toward their attack.

Before we dive into full rankings, some things I always like to cover off:

• This list is created relying fully on statistics from this season and last. Players are rated using a whole bunch of data points of varying weights.

• Minimum for inclusion was 2.0 90s, or 180 minutes of domestic league play so far this campaign. Players with more starts and minutes were weighted favorably.

• I don’t follow a hard-and-fast age limit, but I do prioritize players on the younger side of the “peak age” spectrum.

• All scores are subject to an adjustment according to league strength, so you shouldn’t have to mentally raise or lower rankings to make it more “fair.”

• Last but not least: I always encourage a healthy dose of the eye test before forming a final opinion on any player, so please consume this list responsibly. This list does not necessarily reflect my personal rankings, as I have been known to disagree with my own formulas from time to time.

Now, let’s get into the data!

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The first four years of strikers was a little quiet, in part thanks to the pandemic, but it gets pretty good now. Just in this first summer, there are some real fireworks, plus a guy who snubbed Arsenal which is definitely not a decision he probably regrets frequently.

Should we dive right back in? I think we should, no time to waste!

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It feels pretty weird to finally reach this, the final position group of my (hopefully not too) long look at whether my formulas are any good. And as you probably would have guessed, I saved strikers for the end because they’re the sexiest, the most hotly debated, and — at least to me — the ones we end up looking the dumbest about most often.

If you’ve missed any of the first many chapters, it all started here. Cliff’s notes of the concept:

• Using the formulas as they exist today, re-pick transfers that happened at the time, even if you know a guy busted.

• Ignore the eye-test element, even though I do use both in my actual practice.

• When the formula recommends against a guy, try to emulate that guy the best you can: Similar style of player, from a similar league, similar age, etc. I’ll usually call out how I got where I did with the pick.

• We start with 2017-2018, my first season with advanced enough data to do this, and with the big five leagues. The next season, we add Portugal, Belgium, the Eredivisie, and the Championship.

Good? Good. Let’s go!

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We’re back for more centre-backs!

So far I’ve pretty much completely ruined Arsenal’s defense, which was built on the back of some great scouting. Will I ruin anyone else, or will I make them better? Scroll to find out!

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Alright, I’ll admit I’m pretty nervous about this one.

I love testing out my stuff, but doing so in such a public (and potentially humiliating way) is terrifying for me. Particularly considering how canonically against relying too hard on stats to tell you about CBs I am.

I developed the formula that’s linked above to try and overcome all these issues, and now here we are to really put it to the test. Will it work? I have no idea, but we’re about to find out together.

You can go way back to my very first piece from this series to review the rules, which I won’t waste too much digital space on here. Ready to go? Good, me too!

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In our last episode, we found out who our numerically-based hero would’ve signed instead of Nico Pépé and Eden Hazard. Will we shake up signings such as Jadon Sancho, Antony and Leo Trossard this go-round? What about Noni Madueke?

Scroll down to see!

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At long last, WE’RE BACK! It’s been a hell of a two weeks, hasn’t it? The season has started, We’ve seen injuries, monster transfers, and so much more. But finally, we can get back to what really makes this site tick: Playing pretend!

If you missed the first two (four) parts of this series, the concept is pretty simple: I wanted to test out the tools I’ve been using to rank players for you all for the past few seasons, with the ability right there to tell us whether the tool got the call right or wrong.

In part three (I think) I got tired of the word “formula” and named this whole thing ADAM, because I’m humble like that, and I’ve since wrapped up midfielders and fullbacks, to pretty good effect, I think. That leaves us with centre-backs, wingers and strikers, and so I figured I’d go with those wide attacking men next.

A full breakdown of the rules is in my first piece, linked here, but quick review:

• Use the formulas as they exist today, even if they pick a guy you know busted.

• Ignore the eye-test element, even though I do use both in my actual practice.

• When the formula recommends against a guy, try to emulate that guy the best you can: Similar style of player, from a similar league, similar age, etc. I’ll usually call out how I got where I did with the pick.

• We start with 2017-2018, my first season with advanced enough data to do this, and with the big five leagues. The next season, we add Portugal, Belgium, the Eredivisie, and the Championship.

Good? Good. Let’s go!

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