An Arsenal title would be perfect for the dead open play era
Arsenal are on pace for a historically low open play goal total for a title winner and that is perfect for the new era with more dead balls, compact blocks, and parity.
38 Goals.
That is what Arsenal are currently on pace to score from open play this season if they were to keep going at the same rate that they have for the first 22 matches of this season. Arsenal so far this season have managed to score just 22 open play goals (20 from regular play and 2 from fast break situations) from 22 matches played.
If that sounds low for a team that would go on to win the title, you’re right and it is.
Going back to the 2010-2011 season Premier League winners have averaged 64 open play goals and the lowest in that period was the Leicester City season where they scored 46.
Here is how the overall Premier League looks, with Arsenal, the eventual title winners, and the League Average numbers highlighted.
Without a pretty major upturn in form, Arsenal could have their lowest ever goal tally from open play for seasons with this information tracked. This would be out of the ordinary given that Arsenal are at the top of the table.
Arsenal’s open play numbers have not been great this season, ranking 6th in open play goals would be a major outlier for a champion. Only 4 teams out of the last 15 for which there is data available failed to top the charts in this measure. The four teams were Liverpool 2019/20 (2nd), Chelsea 2016/17 (2nd), Leicester 2015/16 (4th), and Chelsea 2014/15 (2nd).
To match the Premier League average title winner’s numbers relative to league average Arsenal would need to score 56 open play goals this season. This isn’t impossible and we have seen Arsenal under Arteta going on big runs with lots of goals scored, but this would be a pretty big lift with Arsenal needing more than double the current output over the final 16 matches of the season.
The goal scoring numbers are not just an Arsenal issue either. As a whole the Premier League is down 19% on the overall scoring from last season and that is down even more from the 2023/24 season which was a pretty significant outlier (all of the extra time added made a pretty big difference for goals scored).
Only three teams are scoring from open play at a higher rate this season than last.
If we want to be a little less strict, it could be viewed as just one team that is substantially up from last season, with only Manchester United up over 10% on their goal scoring rate from the year previous. Their 1.05 per match puts them tied for 4th this season but compared to last season that would have ranked in the bottom half.
It’s been a weird season. There are lots of ideas about why this is happening, where they are all probably true and interacting with each other to get to this point:
More parity than ever as the bottom teams have gotten richer, they have been able to increase their talent level and the relative differences between the top and bottom have shrunk down.
The tactics have shifted towards stopping attacks, with fewer teams willing to sacrifice their own shape to create attacking advantages. There is less pressing and much more mid/low compact blocks.
The league is becoming more physical and direct, the ball is in play less and the overall flow of the game is being broken up more making it harder to generate open play chances.
Shifting attacking production from open play to set plays. The view that set plays as an afterthought has evolved to teams working very hard to capitalize on the opportunities.
Bottom line: Arsenal are not playing the prettiest soccer and maybe you could even say that they are winning ugly, but the key here is that they are winning. In a Premier League where open-play goals are down nearly across the board, set pieces reign supreme, and efficiency trumps entertainment, that’s not a flaw; it’s smart adaptation.
The league has tilted toward parity over dominance (winners’ points likely below 85 for the second straight year), dead balls over dazzling sequences, compact structure over free-flowing expansive play.
If Arsenal flip the switch, like they did in the second half of 23/24, they might polish their reputation as an attacking force. If not, well they very well could end up as a perfect winner for the current Premier League era.
right on the money with this post Scott. Even so, if we were not so profligate in front of goal, we absolutely would score more than we have. But, we are so we didn't. Will that change? I doubt it.