Are Arsenal cheaping out at the worst moment?

It seems like the club are in a sell-to-buy mode. What's up with that?

The online Arsenal ecosystem received a bit of a scare today.

Despite previous reports that had linked Eddie Nketiah’s exit to Mikel Merino’s entrée, a line in David Ornstein’s tweet about Arsenal’s pursuit of Merino seemed to stir the pot.

Ah, yes. “Likely needs an exit,” the opposite of music to the ears of all transfer enthusiasts, many of whom seem to put Arsenal one player away from guaranteed trophies.

Speculation swirled and bubbled that, among other things, the club might be back to its self-sustenance after a couple of years riding high on KSE’s aid, or worst-case, they might be short of funds at an inopportune time.

The Mirror’s Ryan Taylor, usually a reliable voice for Arsenal, soon mirrored Orny’s reporting with a bit more context: Arsenal aren’t in any PSR or FFP trouble, they’re “boxing clever.” What exactly does that mean?

That will of course fall on the right (wrong?) ears as “Arsenal are being cheap.” But is that really what’s going on here? I think we can go a little deeper.

By all accounts, Arsenal are not in trouble with PSR or FFP. In fact, they have room to spend more.

So why aren’t they pushing the boat out and getting that £80m signing done? A few explanations, if I may indulge.

This move is about this year, but also the next two after that.
By not pushing their PSR and squad cost ratios to the absolute limit, Arsenal are preserving space and money, not just right now, but also for the 25-26 and 26-27 seasons.

As sexy as it’s been for fans of Chelsea, Villa, Newcastle and others to watch their leadership scramble through mad sales dashes in June just to avoid sanctions, Arsenal want no part of that.

We could safely infer (if we didn’t already because of the Merino pursuit) that Arsenal do not feel like it’s particularly likely they’ll find their next Rice- or Havertz-level signing this summer, which is I thought I’d generally agree with. The happy medium is to stay smart this summer, knowing the club’s footballing needs are few, and keep a manageable balance sheet.

This is important because, as we all know, the Premier League has suddenly gotten Serious about enforcing Profit and Sustainability Regulations (PSR), with penalties like points deductions possible.

But what could be more important to Arsenal is UEFA’s gentle acceleration of its own rules. This past season, clubs who spent 90 percent or less of their revenue on player and staff costs (including fees, wages and agent payments) were compliant. But that number drops to 80 percent this season, and to 70 percent the year after. It will get harder than it is now to be UEFA-compliant. And while we don’t know exactly what punishments are going to look like, Arsenal aren’t playing around.

The other possible explanation is that KSE’s financial support was meant to steady the Arsenal ship and bring them back into true contention, before letting the club return to self-sufficiency from there. I looked at what this might look like back in January 2023, linked below.

And while I was ultimately disproven by Declan Rice and Kai Havertz each joining last summer, you could certainly see this as a possibility moving forward now that they’ve signed. What would that look like? Well, the club would prioritize keeping stars, leaving room in the wage bill to give needed raises and extensions. And their summer spending would be more like Manchester City 2021-present than 2015 to 2018, defined by big signings when they were believed to be needed, but largely focused on making upgrades to already-good players in the side, which you’d hope would be balanced somewhat by good sales of those already-good players, as well as youngsters.

Now, it’s very likely that Arsenal will do so as successfully as City, whose endless cash makes them a very leveraged seller. But maybe a lesser version of that is possible.

Another key consideration is that Arsenal have a pretty full squad. They’ve dropped Elneny and Cedric from last season, but as things stand I count 23 senior players employed by Arsenal. That will likely rise to 24 if/when Merino signs, and then 25 once a third keeper is brought in. Arsenal will have the ability to list guys like Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri as U-21s, so no need there.

While the 25-man limit isn’t necessarily a concern, carrying deadweight seems to be. Mikel Arteta, it must be said, has his guys. And right now he’s got a defense with eight “Arteta guys,” he’s got at least five “Arteta guys” in midfield with a sixth on the way and between Saka, Martinelli, Trossard, Jesus and (double-counting) Kai Havertz up front, he’s also got lots of preferred options in attack. That’s an 18-man inner circle, which even the likes of Pep Guardiola would consider big enough to handle the bulk of the minutes. And we haven’t even talked about Nwaneri and Lewis-Skelly breaking in this season, which I think happens on a small-ish scale.

What does that mean for this summer? I would guess (key word) that this doesn’t mean Edu is saving up for his “big surprise” signing at the end of the window, but rather that he’s keeping his options open should an opportunity appear.

My expectation, then, is that Merino comes in, while Nketiah goes out. And from there, a signing up front may rely on one of Reiss Nelson or Jakub Kiwior leaving. If Aaron Ramsdale leaves, that spot surely goes to another keeper.

It’s already been reported this summer that Arsenal were more in a Trossard/Jorginho state of mind with their recruitment, and today’s report backs that up quite a bit.

But thankfully, mercifully, we’ve only got 17 more days to speculate that stuff, and after Saturday we’ll have real football to talk about, too. September 1 and on? It’s time to talk January window, baby.