Are Arsenal running Bukayo Saka into the ground?

Starboys, load management, backups and how to avoid an implosion

For all his exploits on and off the pitch, the Ballon d’or nomination, the Young Player of the Year award, the England Player of the Year wins, there might actually be one aspect of Bukayo Saka’s career that is discussed by Arsenal fans more than just how good he is: How much he plays.

Now, I won’t sit here in my ivory tower and tell you it’s nothing to worry about. I can’t say with any level of certainty that he will never suffer a catastrophic knee injury or a stress fracture or a fractured skull as the result of a particularly feisty aerial duel. I can’t even promise you he won’t get a nasty stomach bug from some hotel food and miss a key away game this season. But what I do feel pretty strongly about, and what I can speak to today is this: Arsenal fans are thinking about Saka, fatigue and long-term injury far too much.

Of course, the catalyst for this post is the report this week that Saka’s been dealing with a nagging Achilles tendon injury since the latter part of last season. This is while he’s been playing for Arsenal, and for England, and training as usual. But the inevitable mental picture many fans got upon reading this piece was Saka’s tendon rupturing, him missing six months or longer, and never being the same when he does return. And that may be one of the less catastrophic scenarios envisioned.

What is it exactly that vexes Arsenal fans so? For one, this club has seen a considerable amount of potential undone by nagging injuries. Even just in recent history there’s been Emile Smith Rowe or Kieran Tierney or Oleksandr Zinchenko, or even Thomas Partey. Historically speaking, we’ve seen luminaries like Tomás Rosicky, Abou Diaby, Jack Wilshere and more succumb to the “injury-prone” label. It’s a real fear for Gooners because it’s been real far too many times.

But on another level, I might propose that there’s another reason why Arsenal fans are so fearful of Saka being run into the ground: This has not been a truly serious club in far too long.

Arsenal are less than a week from their first Champions League match since 2017. The season before, 2016, was the last time Arsenal were ever really within a shout of the league title when the seasons changed to Spring. Bukayo Saka would’ve been just learning to drive a car back then. We just aren’t used to pushing all season long.

Many fans would say the solution to keeping Saka fresher later into the season is more rotation, namely through signing a specialist backup, a left-footed right-winger who can play the same way.

And while, sure, I think Saka could be taken out of some games earlier, I gotta tell you: Arsenal aren’t sitting their Starboy any time soon. You simply don’t do that with your stars, not in games you need to win.

As I am wont to do, let’s look at some numbers to back up this point, focusing as much as we can on players in Saka’s similar age and prominence brackets.

First things first: Bukayo Saka does play a lot. Of course he does! He’s one of the top-two players (worst case) at a Premier League club whose mission includes winning as much as humanly possible. He’s also been naturally quite fit. Here are the minutes played for Saka by season, going back to 2020/2021:

• 3,592

• 3,343

• 3,733

Now, let’s look at Kylian Mbappe, about two years Saka’s senior, in the same seasons. I’ll express his minutes as a +/- against Saka’s for simplicity:

• +121

• +588

• -174

So that’s more than 500 minutes more than Saka over the past three seasons, and he plays in a terrible league where he’s not needed every game!

Let’s go to another young star, Vinicius Junior:

• -875

• +910

• +831

Yikes!

So, what’s my point? Top young stars play a lot, even on huge teams. Off the top of your head, can you even name whom PSG would use as a backup to Mbappe, or whom Real Madrid would start in place of Vini? Are they exclusively left-wingers? Would you back either club to achieve its top objectives if either player picked up a long-term injury?

These clubs are financial giants, and they don’t really have true backups to their stars. Nor do Liverpool have one for Mo Salah, nor did Tottenham for Harry Kane. Even Richarlison was brought in partly because he could also start with Kane, not just in his place. So it’s not surprising that, given Arsenal’s myriad of options at right wing if Saka was forced to miss a game or two, the club haven’t signed someone like Moussa Diaby who’s relatively close to Saka’s level, while being specifically a right-winger with a left footed specialty. Saka’s not going to lose that battle for playing time, and he’s only 22, meaning succession isn’t an attractive pitch, either. And Arteta won’t sit him by choice any more than he would Saliba or Ødegaard. The best case would’ve been someone who can play multiple positions that allows Arsenal to move a player out of position to play in Saka’s pla - wait, that’s Kai Havertz/Gabriel Jesus. So to say there’s no cover just isn’t true.

Before I call it a day, let’s discuss one typical fan argument, which revolves around Manchester City, the patron saints of rotation. Of course, City Usain Bolt’d everyone down the stretch last season. Many assume it’s because they perfectly rotated and didn’t stress their players the way Arsenal did, but I think there’s a problem with this idea: Six outfield players did actually play 3,600 minutes or more last season. It was four players the season before, and four the season before that.

You read that correctly: Even Manchester City has players that play all the time. And yes, if Pep rode Erling Haaland or Rodri until their wheels fell off, it would make a big impact. We may see some of that effect with Kevin De Bruyne out for a few months right now, I know the games he rested or was injured last season were also some of City’s least impressive.

Rodri’s minutes to compare to the above, for reference:

• +365

• +577

• +732

And I haven’t even gotten into Salah’s minutes, or those of someone like Ronaldo or Messi or really any other big star on a side going for both their domestic league and European glory.

It’s pretty normal to worry about injuries, if you ask me. I’m definitely worried about what would happen if Saka or William Saliba or Martin Ødegaard tears an ACL this weekend. I think it would probably kill off any chance Arsenal had of a PL or UCL title this season, just as an injury to Salah or Mane or Van Dijk would’ve done to Liverpool 2019-2021. Wait…why was it that they dropped 30 points from 2020 to 2021 again? Oh yeah.

I’ll leave you with one additional thought: I don’t think it’s possible to not worry about Saka getting injured. I definitely get nervous during international breaks, and not just about him. But I’d submit on some level, worrying about an athlete becoming injured is kind of like worrying about an elderly person you love dying. At some point, your worries are very likely to be validated, but that’s not because it could have been prevented. It’s just a risk for that particular type of person.

Just like medical institutions do their best to extend and improve lives, physios do everything in their power to prevent injuries from being exacerbated, to advise managers when players are at high risk, and even to keep players informed enough to make their own decisions.

But in some cases, there’s just nothing you can do, short of not letting the player play in the first place. And in the case of Saka, I want to see as much of Arsenal’s star as I possibly can, and I believe Arsenal are doing everything in their power to ensure that happens.