Arsenal 0-2 West Ham: The Debrief

A painful loss in the title race

The emotions are incredibly high after this match and if you’re looking for doom, you might want to skip this one.

I sometimes feel like I am a contrarian but more realistically I am the ballast that hopefully stops people from tipping too far into overly optimistic or overly glooy feelings. I think that comes from trying to be informed by the numbers and looking at a wider picture than result to result.

Hopefully, this will help you feel a little better about the team as well in the current spot and address some of the items that are floating around our players.

Arsenal 0-2 West Ham: The Graphics

Arsenal 0-2 West Ham: The Debrief

30 - Shots for Arsenal the most they have taken in a match this season.

9 - Shots in the first half (3 big chances, 1.0 xG, 0.11 xG per shot)

21 - Shots in the second half (2 big chances, 1.6 xG, 0.076 xG per shot)

8 - Shots after the 85th minute (0 big chances, 0.5 xG, 0.058 xG per shot)

There is a lot to break down in this match but I think the first and perhaps best place to start is talking about the shots and the finishing.

I think there are three distinct phases to this game, the first Arsenal are very patient looking to generate the perfect chance, this was most of the first half. The second phase saw the urgency upped and a few more marginal shots were attempted but still working for a good look at goal and not taking any opportunity to shoot. the last phase is the last 10 or so minutes, which padded the shot numbers but didn’t really add much to the actual threat. I am more interested in the first two but the last period still happened so you can’t really fully ignore it.

Breaking down the chances

Things start off early with Saka and combining well, he gets behind the line and has a clear look at goal but fails to convert it into a shot with enough power.

That was a nifty play and foreshadowed where the main threat in this match would come from. From here Arsenal have most of the ball but are really focused on working the ball into locations and turning down marginal shot attempts to look for a better shot.

The next shot is a nice layoff from Martinelli to try a shot from the edge of the box.

I like that here Arsenal get West Ham unsettled and the shot with him running on to it allows him to get a good amount of power behind it. It isn’t the highest xG chance but it is still a half chance.

After this West Ham score from a ball potentially out of play, I don’t want to rehash things but it sucks that there isn’t at minimum another lineman there to help live, and a reverse camera angle that can help. Another one of those days types, in a match full of them.

Arsenal start to exert pressure and have a few nearly balls into dangerous locations but they are still playing to their plan working for a good look. The next worthy chance comes at the half-hour mark, with Jesus playing a scrumptious ball onto Saka’s head and forcing a good reaction save from close range.

That is a wonderful skill from Jesus and it absolutely opens up West Ham up even with them trying to pack the box and keep Arsenal out.

The next chance is generated from a short corner and this is another example of Arsenal’s excellent technical ability creating a chance, this time it is Zinchenko to White who can’t quite get it down and towards the goal.

Arsenal are far from done for the first half and for the next one up the tempo of the play and again open up the deep block of West Ham for a good-looking scoring chance.

This has all the main attackers involved and falls to a player that you want in the situation but instead of equalizing it ends up wide of the frame. This is still just a wonderful quick play as Arsenal’s 4 attackers carve open space against West Ham’s 8 defenders.

Not long after Arsenal have MORE excellent play but it is a bit unfortunate it ends up at the feet of Zinchenko in the box rather than Saka or Odegaard.

Trossard got a good amount of criticism in this match but I think some of that was harsh, this was a good example of some of what he brought, this pass is nicely disguised and takes two defenders out of play and is very dangerous, Zinchenko just can’t turn it into a shot.

Arsenal are still not done with the first half, the next one is the biggest chance of the half and creates two moments of real danger.

Odegaard who was back to his best creatively in this match plays a perfect through ball to Saka. His first touch makes the angle less than perfect but he still beats the keeper at the near post with power hitting the inside of the post. the rebound comes to Trossard in a the right spot but the power is too much for him to direct it. That’s the luck not going Arsenal’s way there.

It was really jarring hearing the commentators talk about how West Ham had played well and that Arsenal had failed to offer much because I don’t think that was true at all. Arsenal created 2 very clear scoring chances, nearly a 3rd on a rebound, several half chances that you think with the quality of the players are actually decent, and lots of dangerous possession.

Into the second half with the clock now an issue the phase is a bit different with Arsenal being a bit more willing to take some marginal shots but overall they still create lots of dangerous moments.

The first one comes from a high IQ play from a set play. Odegaard sees that West Ham have switched off and left Trossard alone at the top of the box and he gets a clear shot at goal (and cleaned out because you can do anything to a shooter after the shot).

It is not the highest quality chance but I like Trossard’s ball striking (when he isn’t fouled) in that spot.

Next, there are some moments where I got frustrated but I think show some danger (going against the West Ham actually defended well narrative) and why players are getting some deserved criticism.

First is a good play where it is just a heavy touch that makes the difference.

Martinelli finally gets to go one-on-one and plays it really well to generate a 1,2 with Trossard. If he controls that, it is another half chance that you feel good about but alas it doesn’t.

Next is another one-on-one situation for Martinelli but this time he makes the wrong choice, wasting a very good opportunity.

Arsenal are still getting joy and are not being forced into the horseshoe of death by West Ham, but rather it is probably more their execution and a bit of luck going against them then anything the visitors are doing. So of course that means something bad is happen. The second goal from the corner is a sucker punch and comes against the run of play with Arsenal significantly more dangerous. It is a good delivery and finish but Jesus and Gabriel probably should do better to get to the ball.

This certainly ups the desperation for Arsenal and more marginal shots are now being taken. That doesn’t mean that the good chances are over. The last three real scoring chances come in quick succession here two falling to Jesus and one to Nelson.

That is an excellent delivery and one that Jesus does well to hit down into the ground on.

This is the one that is the most frustrating miss, it starts again with nice play from Odegaard and then a good delivery from White. Jesus just totally misses under no pressure and the goal wide open for him to aim at. Headers are hard but that is a massive chance that probably makes the last 30 minutes very interesting.

This pass and the little shimmy to create the space from Odegaard were top-class, but it doesn’t turn into a shot because Nelson can’t sort his touch or timing right. After this there is one more nearly moment with Nketiah in but it was good last-ditch defending.

The last minutes are full of desperate shoot-on-sight situations as Arsenal tried to will the ball in the net but it just didn’t happen.

The pure volume of chances, not just the stat-padding ones at the end really makes me reject the idea that West Ham defended well or that this was what they wanted to see in the match.

I have gotten some heat for saying that Arsenal were unlucky or that West Ham rode their luck here but that really is I think the case here. Running a simulation of the shots that Arsenal took here really shows that not scoring here is a pretty big outlier outcome.

After going through some of the bigger chances that Arsenal had in this match I can’t see an argument that I would find persuasive that would point in a different direction.

6.3% - The probability of zero goals scored from the xG of each chance in this match

6.5% - The probability of five goals scored from the xG of each chance in this match.

It was more likely that Arsenal score 5 or more goals from this level of chance creation than 0. Two goals would probably be “fair” but still a bit disappointing. This is also not a real recurring problem for Arsenal this season.

8 - Times this season that Arsenal have had between 2.2 and 2.8 xG in the Premier and Champions Leagues. They have had some good finishing days (Lens, Sheffield, Luton) and a bad finishing day (West Ham). They have 0 goals (1 time), 2 goals (2 times), 3 goals (1 time), 4 goals (2 times), 5 goals (1 time), and 6 goals (1 time).

It is okay to feel frustrated by this match because it was. What I am not sure I can get behind however is the sudden movement that things are massively broken with the team. If this was a horseshoe of death day with the team failing to progress the ball I would be there but it just wsan’t the case at all.

77 - Touches in the box for Arsenal

12 - Touches in the box for Arsenal while it was 0-0 to 1 for West Ham

399 - Touches in the final third for Arsenal

50 - Touches in the final third for West Ham

46 - Open play attempts into the box, West Ham manged just 13

52 - Touches in “Zone 14” for Arsenal, compared to just 3 fro West Ham

I was more worried about this team at the start of the season than I am now, back then the chances were not being created and it felt like it needed moments of brilliance to score, now the chances are coming and the team has fallen into a collective cold slump.

Looking at the numbers for how the season has progressed I think shows things finally moving in the right direction after having an upper midtable attack for the first part of the season. It isn’t perfect and having chances turn into goals would be great but I think this is a signal of something better compared to the start of the season.

Scoring just 17 goals from 25 open-play expected goals is not great but this is essentially the same front three that last season finished exceptionally from the same types of shots.

Maybe Arsenal isn’t 20% above expected finishers (not that you should have thought that) but I don’t think a half-season should suggest that they are suddenly only going to convert 67% of their expected chances for goals going forward either.

Just looking at the history of the players I don’t think there is something systemic here for why they are suddenly bad. Below is the front 3 players in the Champions League and Premier League with goals vs xG over their careers.

There are and can be additions to this team that will and can help, the team still has a strong first 13 or 14 players and perhaps that is deeper without injuries but there are still glaring holes that could use help when players are out of form or injured.

Odegaard brings back the creativity

86 - Pass Attempts with 83.7% Pass completion

111.5% - Pass Efficiency (passes completed compared to expected for an average player)

9 - Final 3rd Entry Passes

14 - Progressive Passes (20 on FBref’s less strict definition)

9 - Box Entry Pass

16 - Deep Completions (not Cross)

6 - Key Passes

0.64 - xA

3 - Shots

0.13 - xG

19 - Progressive Carries

6 - Carry into the box

14 - Progressive Passes Received

19 - Touches in the box

9.76 - Fields Gained (total ball progression passing and carrying)

What a day for the captain, it is going to be a real bummer that this will be forgotten because the result was bad but he was on the top of his game here. It is so good to see him come through a period of poor form and injury that had people asking questions about him back to his best.

Zinchenko continues to cause division

67 - Pass Attempts with 89.6% Pass%

110.1% - Pass Efficiency (passes completed compared to expected for an average player)

8 - Final 3rd Entry Passes

11 - Progressive Passes (14 on FBRef’s less strict definition)

3 - Box Entry Passes

2 - Key Passes

11 - Progressive Carries

1 - Tackle

2 - Dribbled Past

4 - Blocked Passes

3 - Aerial Duel Won

60% - Aerial Win%

8.18 - Fields Gained (total ball progression passing and carrying)

Zinchenko is still most polarizing player in the team and I should stop being surprised that people have already made up their mind and find moments in the match that only strengthen what they believe.

I have seen him getting blamed for both goals and honestly, I just don’t see it. For the first Gabriel makes the weird decision to try a reverse clearance without knowing what is behind him causing the ball to fall (out of play) for West Ham to center for the goal. On the second he starts out on Mavropanos but passes him to the front zone players to challenge for the ball in.

There were also a couple of the customary loose passes, especially one at the end of the half that was in no danger at all of turning into something bad that got people on his case.

The flip side was again a player that was pivotal to many of the good plays Arsenal did to break down the low block and create danger.

There are usually two or three of these types of passes a game that really just leaves me in awe and he has that ability that no one in our back line has right now and outside of maybe Trent Alexander-Arnold is the best passer for a fullback.

It feels like the same conversation over and over with him and unfortunately, I think both sides are pretty dug in with their beliefs not strongly held where new information won’t budge them.

Martinelli is out of form

31 - Pass Attempts on 71.0% Pass%

88.1% - Pass Efficiency

2 - Progressive Passes

1 - Key Pass

0.05 - xA

1 - Shot

0.11 - xG

2 - Dribbles Completed

8 - Progressive Carries

8 - Progressive Passes Received

12 - Touches in the box

1 - Dispossessed

3 - Miscontrol

This hurts to write but it is absolutely true, Martinelli looks in serious need of a bit of time perhaps coming off the bench or not playing at all to get back in form. The numbers are not “bad” but they are not what we would expect from him after his breakout last year.

He is going through a very rough patch right now and he is off of his best. The decisions aren’t right, the shots are off, he looks like he is struggling to find that little bit of the extra 1% that makes the difference between a very good player and a great player.

Hopefully with the break that is coming in January he can take advantage because at this level he is a player that is not helping Arsenal nearly enough.