Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Munich: The Debrief

It is all square at the halfway mark of the Champions League quarter final

That was a high-level game and that I have wanted to see Arsenal be a part of for a long time.

I come away feeling content with Arsenal’s position, I think they look like the stronger team between the two and mistakes made the difference. They let the advantage of being at home slip away but with how good they are away from home, they are still very much in contention to advance to the semi-finals.

The betting odds seem to agree. As I am writing this it is Bayern Munich slightly ahead at 52% to advance but still 48% for Arsenal. After being humiliated by Bayern so many times to have basically a coin flip returning to Germany is a major step forward.

A bit of a shorter one as the turnaround is tight.

Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Munich: The Graphics

Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Munich: The Debrief

Mistakes gift Bayern a chance in the tie

7 - Shots for Bayern Munich in this match, the lowest total they have had this season in any competition and only the second time they were held under 10.

1.5 - Non-penalty xG for Bayern Munich in this match, this is the fifth-lowest total they have had this season in any competition.

1.4 - The total xG (0.6 for the Gnabry goal, and 0.8 for the Kane penalty) for the 2 goals that came as the result of the two series of mistakes that led to Bayern’s first shots and the two goals

If things don’t well in Munich, I think we will go back and look at the series of events that happened from the 16th minute to the 32nd minute and wonder what if.

Ben White has a big chance fall to him in the box and he seems like he is a bit surprised by it and ends up shooting right at the keeper. This was at 1-0 for Arsenal and the momentum of the match had swung decidedly towards Arsenal here. After the first goal, there didn’t seem to be a lot of fight in Bayern and a second goal might have killed that off completely.

Instead, just a few minutes later a Bayern longball gets Arsenal in a moment of miscommunication. David Raya is way out of his box (not sure he needed to be there), this makes Gabriel have to rethink his plan and he plays a poor pass to Jakub Kiwior, Kiwior is a bit flat-footed and can’t reach it and then doesn’t close down the Bayern player, Rice is uncharacteristically run past (he went to close down instead of anticipating the run) leaving Leon Goretzka all the space he needed to slide in Serge Gnabry who slots it past.

It is a massive swing, going from potentially 2-0, to 1-1 in a matter of just a couple of minutes. The early goal had boosted Arsenal to 75% to win the match, a second at 16 minutes would have pushed it to 90% instead, with the equalizer just a moment later bringing the win probability back to just 50% (still a good spot).

From this period forward until about halftime, I think Arsenal almost felt like this caused Arsenal to panic.

I don’t think it was bad from Arsenal but there was a pretty big change in that Arsenal seemed like they wanted to respond instantly rather than remembering that there was still over 2.5 hours to go in the tie.

92% - Arsenal’s passing completion in the first 17 minutes

86% - Arsenal’s passing completion in the after the 17th minute in the first half

12 - Passes attempted into the box after the 17th minute by Arsenal, completing 6

Things went from totally fine but panicked, to worse at the 30th minute. A long ball after some good pressing from Arsenal finds Leroy Sané who has Kiwior tight against him. He ends up spinning him at the halfway line with space to run into. This isn’t great but given Arsenal’s defense, this is a situation you still expect them to clean up.

Instead, there is a series of errors. Neither Jorginho or Kiwior can catch Sané eraly to try and foul him and stop the break taking a yellow. Jorginho does get close enough as they approach the box to try and get a foot in but can’t make contact with the ball. Gabriel has the best chance to clean it up but he can’t quite make it and pulls out, leaving Saliba as the last line where he trips him and Harry Kane gets his customary penalty against Arsenal.

This fully swung the win probability in Bayern’s direction (55% to win after the penalty) and changed the complexity of what was in front of Arsenal.

Arsenal show the ability to adapt and resilience

At half-time, Arsenal made a needed change, Kiwior was switched for Oleksandr Zinchenko and that brought Rice to the base of midfield with Jorginho and Odegaard pushing further up the pitch.

This saw Arsenal gain a bit more control (with some game state effects here as well) and the ability to advance the ball.

20 - Final third entries in the first half

33 - Final third entries in the second half

It was still tough to make a breakthrough but it did finally come in the 76th minute with Arsenal winning the ball high on a throw-in, working the ball into Jesus in the box and him showing his light feet to be able to slide it to Leandro Trossard to slam home.

The subs that Arteta was able to call upon made the difference here and what I think was positive was that even after the game was tied, the team showed maturity to not over-push and leave the backdoor open for a counter.

Bayern still did end up creating one more good chance but the tight angle and the post came back to save Arsenal who had their own moment to take the lead…

The flashpoint referee decisions

I don’t want to get too bogged down in this but after having a chance to sleep on it this is where I have landed on them.

Sané penalty - No complaints here. The step across isn’t the biggest but I think it is enough to where he impedes the player and causes him to trip. I don’t think most calls are fully black and white 0% or 100% but this one is in the 80-90% range for a foul.

Kane elbow on Gabriel potential red card - This is called a yellow on the field and I think it is very much in the orange range. With the way the game is called I think yellow is more likely outcome even if I think this kind of play is dirty and I think Kane knows exactly what he is doing here and I want this type of play to be penalized more harshly. It is just low enough (arm below shoulder) and just connected enough with fighting for position that he gets away with it. This would be a perfect one for the in-between call, a yellow isn’t enough and a red might be too harsh. As is, I think that this is called a red about 30% of the time.

Video of the incident via Reddit:

Possible penalty for Gabriel handball - I think common sense won out here. By the letter of the law this could have been a penalty. Maybe if this is in Munich with the crowd getting on top of the referee it does get called but when you look at the replay, no one is really reacting as if play had restarted here even if by rule it could have been. No Bayern players run at him to close him down, in fact no players even take a step towards it. None of the Arsenal players look like they are changing their positions or like play had restarted. This would have been an incredibly harsh penalty, something worth an 80% chance of scoring and for nothing, if it is given it really sucks and it is one where the team should be more careful about going forward. I am glad common sense won out here and I think it was the right decision.

Video of the incident via Reddit:

Saka not getting a penalty - I can see why this isn’t a penalty. When you slow this video down it does look like Saka’s right foot takes an unnatural path that goes into Neuer to create contact. There is also Neuer who moves his foot into the path of where Saka wants to go and is beat by the touch of Saka.

At full speed, I think this looks like a penalty and I am surprised that the referee swallowed his whistle here, especially because in the Champions League the threshold for a foul seems lower than in the Premier League.

I think that this is more than a 50/50 but with the factor that Saka’s foot looks perhaps unnatural, it isn’t a full stonewall penalty. I think about 70% that it is a foul, if it is called on the field it is not overturned.

I think 3/4 of the calls went the way I wanted them to go and what I think was right. Both teams probably feel they should have gotten a call going their way that didn’t. Given it was Arsenal at home they probably got a bit on the shorter end of things but not the worst.