Arsenal 2-2 Tottenham: The Debrief
Another draw that feels like a loss
It doesn’t feel like Arsenal are still undefeated right now.
This is the second time Arsenal have drawn this season and both have felt nearly as bad as losses. For the second time this season Arsenal have thrown away points from a winning position. In this match, they did it twice and to do it to this opposition makes things feel worse.
Things are not looking bright with Arsenal right now and hopefully Mikel Arteta can right the ship to get things back on track.
Arsenal 2-2 Tottenham: The Graphics
Arsenal 2-2 Tottenham: The Debrief
8 - Open play shots for Arsenal, the fewest Arsenal have had this season
0.9 - Open play expected goals for Arsenal, the third time this season it has been less than 1.0
5 - Open play passes into the penalty area completed, the fewest Arsenal have had this season
21 - Open play progressive passes completed, the fewest Arsenal have had this season
It feels like a broken record at this point but the Arsenal attack is looking very poor. Tottenham did really well to deny space to Arsenal but it was another match where getting into the final third wasn’t the major problem, Arsenal still managed to enter the final third on 40% of their possessions. Instead, it was again the final ball or killer pass that was missing.
7.6 - Arsenal's open play expected goals this season, ranking 12th best in the Premier League.
8 - Big Chances from open play, ranking 12th best in the Premier League.
I think this deserves a deeper dive that I will look to have this week but I remain worried about this.
47% - Arsenal’s possession in this match, the lowest this season and the first time it was below 50%
96 - Touches in the final third by Tottenham, the 5th of 6 time this season that Arsenal have held their opponent under 100 touches in the final third
65% - Arsenal’s field tilt in this match
20 - Touches in the box by Tottenham, the second most Arsenal have allowed this season
15% - The average chance quality for Tottenham, the highest average Arsenal have allowed this season.
I think this was a decent defensive performance from Arsenal. It took Arsenal making huge uncharacteristic mistakes for Tottenham to create danger. They should probably get some credit for forcing that but it was still something that was out of the ordinary.
The Captain Goes Missing
34 - Pass Attempts with 58.8% pass completion percentage and 81.5% Pass Efficiency
0 - Progressive Passes from open play
3 - Key Passes
0.12 - xA
1 - Shot
0.03 - xG
0 - Dribbles Completed
2 - Progressive Carries
4 - Progressive Passes Received
4 - Final Third Entry Pass Received
3 - Times Dispossessed
2 - Miscontrols
3 - Tackles
1 - Time Dribbled Past
2 - Fouls
2 - Blocked Passes
4 - Ball Recoveries
On the big days, you turn to your best players to step up. I think today several of the big players and the ones with the most experience and expectation were off and that was more than enough to make the difference in this match.
Gabriel Jesus rushed a chance that could have put Arsenal up two goals and changed the direction of the game. Jorginho had two moments of indecision on the ball that led to massive chances, with one turning into the equalizer. Bukayo Saka was roasted by James Maddison to enter the box and create a goal. Most emblematic of this is Martin Odegaard’s performance here.
This is probably the worst I have seen Odegaard play in quite a while for Arsenal. Things that are normally crisp were sloppy, his creativity was off, his shooting was tame, and situations where he normally comes through tight spaces ended with Spurs in possession.
Nketiah Scapegoating Should Stop
Eddie Nketiah is not as good as Gabriel Jesus and he has a different style of play but the blame that is being thrown onto him is crazy right now. I don’t think he had a particularly good game, nor did I think it was a good idea to move Jesus to the wing to accommodate him in the team. That being said it has been especially nasty to see the response that has gone beyond criticism of his game.
There is certainly a fair criticism of his game because it was not great:
8 - Pass Attempts, that is the second-fewest of ALL Arsenal players, and by far the fewest of the players that played more than 5 minutes. He did this with 75% pass completion (6/8).
0 - Progressive Passes
0 - Box Entry Pass
0 - Key Passes
1 - Shot, 0.2 xG and it was a good pounce on a bad pass where the shot was his best option after looking for the pass as long as possible.
2 - Progressive Passes Received
0 - Passes in the box Received
2 - Touches in the box
1 - Times Dispossessed
4 - Miscontrols
30% - Times lost possession per touch
2 - Tackles
1 - Foul, could have been a red that he had little to complain about
2 - Interception plus blocked passes
1 - Aerial Duel won
It can be a fine line at times, and in the eye of the beholder but it does feel like the toxicity leveled at Nketiah is out of proportion to his standing in the team. He’s the backup striker and if he is playing in a high leverage match it does probably mean something else has already gone wrong. In this match, Arsenal were missing their first two choices of left-wing out and had to make a tough decision on who to start. You can make an argument it didn’t work but overall when Nketiah has been turned to with the first team, he has helped the team look close to the same level as it was previously.
Below will be select stats with Eddie Nketiah starting and not starting over this season plus last.
2.3 - Goals when Nketiah does not start
2.1 - Goals when Nketiah starts
2.1 - Arsenal’s xG when Nketiah does not start
2.0 - Arsenal’s xG when Nketiah starts
11.2 - Shots from open play when Nketiah does not start
12.1 - Shots from open play when Nketiah starts
1.5 - Open play xG when Nketiah does not start
1.5 - Open play xG when Nketiah starts
36.5 - Touches in the box when Nketiah does not start
37.9 - Touches in the box when Nketiah starts
0.9 - xG difference when Nketiah does not start
0.7 - xG difference when Nketiah starts
2.24 - Points when Nketiah does not start
2.20 - Points when Nketiah starts
The difference with Nketiah and without Nketiah isn’t significantly worse. For a backup to one of the key players on Arsenal’s team that is a very solid track record over 15 matches.
RE the differences when Eddie does or does not start. I get that the absolute values you are showing are quite close, but given the margins we are playing at to be competing for the league, don't you think a 10% difference is statistically significant? How many areas can we reasonably be expected to see 10% or larger improvements in our outputs?
I can understand people making comments about the relatively few personnel changes made midweek against PSV, with some (many?) players consequently being "overplayed" with resulting injuries.., but I am not sure I entirely buy into this. It might be interesting to see some stats (Scott? Adam?) on this but when I look at fellow premiership sides – the majority of whom are not in Europe – most have a notable list of injuries. We are not alone. Might the intensity of games have changed in recent years? Alternatively, or in addition, should we perhaps look at the ever decreasing duration of pre-season breaks? Might the commercial demands of overseas tours (with some very competitive fixtures included) also have something to do with the spate of injuries? Or should we simply adjust to the "new reality" and lean into this as being very much a "squad game" – and accept that injuries can, and will, happen. Incidentally, I noticed that Brighton yesterday appeared to rest certain players for one half. (Arsenal did so as well in the case of the Viera and Rice, but they were tactical and injury enforced respectively; not pre-planned.) I do wonder if this is something that teams (and most definitely Arsenal) should consider looking at. Players would know from the the outset they were likely to be given 45 mins and play accordingly. Also gives us an opportunity to limit playing times for those players may be in the red zone or who are habitually injured, and to reintroduce players: bringing on Smith-Rowe in the 94th minute isn't going to tell us anything. The fact that half-time substitutions don't count as one of the 5 substitutions is another big bonus in my book. Food for thought?? Finally, we have to acknowledge that, whether through bad luck or otherwise, some players have a propensity to be injured. In the case of Partey we were unlucky because I don't think there was anything in his history pointing to a litany of muscular injuries, but for Zinny I'm afraid his record was not good. Personally speaking, I adore Zinny so much that I would be prepared (and it's not my money after all) to have him fit for only 60% of the season, but fans cannot express surprise when he is injured. Same I am afraid for Nelson - and Tierney when he was around. Jesus's record was also troubling. It's those muscular injuries that kill you - they never seem to go away. Although it's trite to say that "the best ability is availability", there is more than a grain of truth in this. Squad game anyone?