Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid: The Debrief

All the stats and viz from Arsenal's big quarter final first leg win

This might have been one of the biggest/most impactful wins for Arsenal since I have been a regular watcher of the team (going back to 2011/12 season). In the decade plus I have been watching this team, I don’t think there has been anything on the level with the combination of pedigree of the team against and the stakes of the occasion.

Last season’s face off against Manchester City away might be close but really that is all that comes to mind right now for high stakes matches with this much on the line.

All of that makes the result so much more sweet. The belief that I have in this team is at an all time high, it is colored with a bit of “what if” sadness for how the other part of the seasons could have gone with a few good bounces but this team has accomplished something special on this night, reminding us that this is a damn good team, with one of the best coaches in the world.

The job isn’t done for moving on to the semi-final but the team has put themselves in a commanding position to return to the semi-final for the first time since 2009

Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid: The Graphics

Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid: The Debrief

The defense shines

9 - Shots for Real Madrid in this match, this is tied for the second fewest they have had in a match this season. They had 3 shots on target which was tied for the 4th lowest they have had in a match this season.

0.7 - Expected goals for Real Madrid in this match (0.5 on the FBref data) which is the third lowest they have had in a match this season from my model (tied for the lowest on the Opta model).

In this match, Madrid created one real dangerous opening. In the 31st minute Jude Bellingham took the ball off Timber and they played a great through ball for Mbappe. Raya was positioned well to not give away any part of the goal easy and made the save.

After that moment, there really were no other moments that really needed a note on them.

Much of that was down to another suffocating performance from Arsenal’s possession and ability to recover when they lost the ball. Madrid were not able to consistently move the ball into the final third and really struggled to buildup in this match.

This table above I think tells a meaningful story. Inside their own half Madrid just did not have the ability to move the ball effectively up the field against Arsenal, nor did they have the ability to effectively control possession in this match.

With their first phase disrupted effectively by Arsenal’s pressure and ability to control space, the lethal threat of Mbappe, Vinicius, Rodrygo, and Bellingham was able to be kept in check.

34 - Long passes in their defensive buildup zone (defensive 45% of the pitch) compared to 11 for Arsenal

22 - Passing sequences of 5 or more passes for Real Madrid, compared to 33 for Arsenal

97% - The pass efficiency in their own half against Arsenal, compared 105% for Arsenal

78.9 - The average starting position in yard away from goal for Madrid’s attacks, compared to 68.8 yards for Arsenal.

13 - Touches in the box for Real Madrid against Arsenal, this is the second fewest they have had in a match this season (lowest was 10 vs Atalanta). They also managed just 106 touches in the attacking third.

81 - Touches in their own defensive box, that is just 25 fewer than they had in the attacking third against Arsenal.

One of the big talking points for this match was this was one of the best transition attacks against one of the best transition defenses and it would be a great test to see which one would be able to come out on top.

Round 1 went to Arsenal, who were able to withstand that threat and do so without having to sell out everything else that they normally are able to do defensively. This was an excellent overall match of managing and controlling space.

Declan Rice has his moment

2 - Goals, from two of the most stunning free kicks that you will see in a long time.

5 - Shots, led all players, 3 Shots On Target, for 0.57 xG

32 - Pass Attempts on 87.5 Pass completion percentage and 105.2% Pass Efficiency

3 - Progressive Passes

326 - Yards of Progressive Pass Distance

1 - Dribble Completed

6 - Progressive Carries

3 - Carry into Final Third

2 - Carry into the box

6 - Progressive Passes Received

9 - Touches in the box

0 - Tackles and dribbled past 1 time

1 - Interception

2 - Blocked Passes

The video of those free kicks are going to be played so many times and they deserve every single one the views they are going to get. They were spectacular. Rice’s overall match had that too. He was a force of nature on the left-hand side causing all sorts of problems that Madrid did not have a counter for.

Arsenal posed for Semi-Final Return

90% - The implied odds for Arsenal to advance to the semi-final stage from the betting odds after their win last night.

491 - Days since Arsenal have given up 3 or more goals in a match (last was Dec 5, 2023 against Luton in a 4-3 win)

696 - Days since Arsenal have been beaten by 3 or more goals (last was May 14, 2023 against Brighton in a 3-0 loss).

1,236 - Days since Arsenal have been beaten by 4 or more goals (last was November 20, 2021 against Liverpool in a 4-0 loss)

0 - Goals that Madrid have ever scored against Arsenal in the Champions League

You can never count out of Real Madrid, they have some sort of devil magic that makes it possible for them to do unprecedented things in the Champions League but they have dug themselves a deep hole here.

There are valid critiques about Arsenal and the way that Arteta sets up his team, one of them is not that they are too easy to beat or that they will capitulate giving up goals.

This is a team that has not given up more than 2 goals in nearly 18 months and has gone nearly 2 full years since being beaten by a margin that would only TIE this match and not even have them in a position where they would lose it.

This tie isn’t over, but Arsenal took care of business and have to feel incredibly confident that they are a matchup nightmare against this Madrid team. They did an excellent job of finding the right balance between pragmatism and proactive play here. The pressing was dialed in to disrupt and make it tough for Madrid to transition while they also had enough technical ability that they were able to impose and use possession to slow the game down and to mostly not be affected by Madrid’s attempts to press.

I have the highest confidence that Arteta and the team will be ready for this challenge.