It’s against the grain of your column but the eyeball test of goals against Arsenal is this year is that an extraordinary number have been very low probability goals. That matches your point that the expected goals against is very small—but when you remember Lens’ goals, Mudryk’s goal, Newcastle’s goal, Spurs goals, etc., it “seems” like more goals against are more unlikely than not. That seems promising somehow.
It’s against the grain of your column but the eyeball test of goals against Arsenal is this year is that an extraordinary number have been very low probability goals. That matches your point that the expected goals against is very small—but when you remember Lens’ goals, Mudryk’s goal, Newcastle’s goal, Spurs goals, etc., it “seems” like more goals against are more unlikely than not. That seems promising somehow.
Yeah, it feels like almost all are from errors or flukes. Teams don't really cut Arsenal open for chances.
Are we moving to best in the league defensive due to the evening scores?