Dominance.
Dominance not control is what Mikel Arteta likes and he got it in spades against Newcastle.
I thought previously that the performance against Brighton was the best of the season but in my rankings of matches, this one pushed on ahead of it.
When I woke up this morning I was practically giddy to write this post and revel in the numbers from a wonderful performance. Let’s go.
Arsenal 4-1 Newcastle: The Graphics
Arsenal 4-1 Newcastle: The Debrief
We talked about dominance in the opening part let’s look at just how dominate it was.
Stats for the opening 22 minutes:
6 - Shots for Arsenal
0 - Shots for Newcastle
14 - Touches in the box for Arsenal (this is more than Newcastle had all match)
129 - Pass attempts in Newcastle’s half by Arsenal
5 - Pass attempts in Arsenal’s half by Newcastle
87 - Pass attempts in the final third by Arsenal
0 - Pass attempts in the final third by Newcastle
5.3 - Passes allowed by Arsenal for each defensive action they had
87% - Newcastle’s pass efficiency (actual passing compared to expected passing)
5 - High starts from Arsenal
99.1% - Arsenal’s field tilt
These numbers are ridiculous but even this might not do justice to just how suffocating Arsenal was in this period. They did not let Newcastle get a moment of comfort on the ball with 11 defensive actions, nor did they let them build from the back, just 1 sequence of 5 or more passes and 69% (#NICE) pass completion, nor were any of the long balls they tried fruitful at 50% completion (not counting the 8 clearances they needed to make).
The defensive action map is a thing of beauty with the pressing that Arsenal did in this period.
This opening period set the tone of the match and when the game was in the balance it was not particularly close at all, this was all Arsenal.
18 - Shots for Arsenal, an almost mediocre total for Arsenal these days (tied for 8th most this season)
4 - Goals, the 6th time in the Premier League Arsenal have had 4 or more goals.
25 - Goals scored in the Premier League in 2024, 4.2 goals per game average
2.1 - xG by my model, 14th highest for Arsenal this season and now just “average” for Arsenal this season
3 - Big chances (of which only one was converted, Arsenal very well left a goal or two on the field here potentially)
46 - Touches in the box by Arsenal, 6th most this season
The very impressive side of this is again the defensive suffocation that Arsenal had here.
3 - Shots for Newcastle, with their first coming in the 49th minute
5 - Times that Arsenal have held their opponent to 5 or fewer shots this season
0.2 - xG for Newcastle, this is the second-lowest total for Arsenal this season
0 - Big chances for Newcastle
8 - Touches in the box for Newcastle, the 4th fewest this season for Arsenal to allow and the 7th time they have held an opponent to 10 or fewer.
What I think adds some extra gloss to this already good defensive performance is that Newcastle coming into this match was a good attacking team. Their defense had cratered on them but they still had a good attack with the 4th most goals scored coming into this with the 4th best expected goals.
They got nothing from this match and had one of their worst all-around attacking performances of the year.
Arsenal’s defense deserves a lot of credit for this and what they have done this season in general.
Jorginho! - that’s it, that’s the heading
102 - Pass Attempts, led all players
91 - Pass Completed, led all players
105.8% - Pass Efficiency (actual passes completed compared to expected)
9 - F3rd Entry Passes, led all players
8 - Progressive Passes, led all players
6 - Deep Completions (not Cross), led all players
457 - Progressive Pass Distance in yards, led Arsenal
1 - Key Pass
2 - Times Fouled
7 - Progressive Carries, second among all players
1.61 - xG Buildup, led all players
0 - Times Dispossessed
0 - Miscontrols
1 - Tackle 50% Tackle %
2 - Fouls committed
1 - Interception
1 - Blocked Pass
4 - Ball Recoveries
1 - Aerial Duel Won
6.52 - Fields Gained with ball progression, led Arsenal
What a day by this guy.
I am venturing into mind-reading territory but I kind of feel like Mikel Arteta would have liked to have used Jorginho against Porto from the start but was not willing to disrupt a team that had just won away games 6-0 and 5-0 back to back and looked incredible.
Here against Newcastle, he had the freedom to do so and he came in and provided some of the ball progression that was missing in Portugal. It was still just a bit off (part of why it felt like the team left goals on the field) but Arsenal were significantly better at turning final third possession into danger, even with Newcastle doing their best to clog space.
This is just such a key part of what Jorginho brings to the team. He has the innate sense of when to speed the game up, and when to slow it down, and no one will ever make him change the tempo from what he wants it to be.
When he came into the team a year ago, there was a large part of this fanbase that was not on board with him, I bet if you put offering him another year at Arsenal up to a vote you would get as near as possible unanimity as there can be in a large group of people behind the idea. He has come so far and shown with his performances how pivotal he can be.
60 million down the drain, Kai Havertz scores again
2 - Shots for Havertz
2 - Big chances
1.1 - xG, led all players
7 - Touchs in the box
9 - Progressive passes received
1 - Key pass
0.15 - xA
4 - Blocked passes plus interceptions, led all players
3 - Fouls committed
7 - Ball recoveries, led all players
4 - High ball recoveries, led all players
3 - Aerial duels won, 75% win rate
Speaking of another divisive former Chelsea signing… Kai Havertz scores AND assists again.
0.45 - Goals plus assists now in the Premier League, after his cold start at the beginning of the season he has turned on the end product. Since the October 8th match against Manchester City, he is at 0.55 goals plus assists.
He still has flaws but if you still can’t see what he adds to the team and why Arteta likes having him as an option you probably never will.
The Run-In approaches
Crunch time is coming and Arsenal are in a tough spot behind their two rivals. They do have the benefit of having the appearance of peaking at the right time, and with key players returning from injury.
I will have a full update on the model odds but by the looks of things Arsenal are about 25% on the betting odds and I think that is about right (maybe a bit underrated).
11th - Arsenal’s remaining schedule rank for difficulty
12th - Liverpool’s remaining schedule rank for difficulty
3rd - Manchester City’s remaining schedule rank for difficulty
There are some high leverage matches coming up for all three teams and it is going to be nerve-wracking and exactly why we love this sport to watch how this develops.