Arsenal 4-2 Leicester: The Debrief

Arsenal left it very late but got the win

I started last week talking about how Arsenal’s numbers are going to be weird for a while given the game state/ red card situations they found themselves in and I guess they took that personally because this is a crazy game stat-wise that will help put a lot of shine on what Arsenal have done this season.

This was also one of the biggest roller-coaster matches in a while

It swung from alright this is an easy win, lets get some youngsters in soon.

To well I am glad we got that second goal.

To uh oh.

To no way with this many chances Arsenal don’t win, right?

To massive relief.

To LOL at the final goal getting scored.

The most important thing is the highly scientific and serious ‘Deserve to win-o-meter’ was in Arsenal’s favor so it always should have ended up that way.

Let’s get into it.

Arsenal 4-2 Leicester: The Graphics

Arsenal 4-2 Leicester: The Debrief

36 - Shots for Arsenal, tied for the most for Arsenal Arsenal also took 36 shots against Sunderland in 2-0 win in May 2017), and the 13th most in a top 5 league in FBref’s database.

16 - Shots on target, the most Arsenal have had in a match in the FBref database

4.8 - Arsenal’s xG in this match, the highest for Arsenal in the FBref database

6.2 - Arsenal’s post-shot xG from my model, 5.3 from Opta’s model. Both of these are the highest that Arsenal have ever done in the records that I have available.

This game is going to have some weird narratives because of the score but now having had the chance to watch this back again without the stress of the game being in the balance, this was a near-perfect performance from Arsenal.

There were a couple of minor mistakes, and Arsenal maybe could have done a bit more with some of the chances that were presented to them but it was maximum punishment for the minor mistakes and a goalkeeper playing out of his mind with the shot stopping.

When I plugged the post-shot xG values for Arsenal into the match simulator it gave a higher probability of Arsenal scoring 8 goals than the 4 they did.

It is amazingly improbable that this almost ended up with the 2-2 scoreline.

Looking back at this game and it really does seem that Arsenal did everything right. they dominated the space, keeping Leicester penned in both attack and defense.

428 - Touches in the final third for Arsenal

69 - Toucehs in the box for Arsenal

252 - Touches in the defensive third for Leicester

55% - The percentage of the total touches from both team that happened in the third of the field that Arsenal were attacking.

Arsenal’s pressure in this game was exceptional and helped to control the space well outside of a couple of minor issues in transition.

5.4 - Passes allowed by Arsenal per defensive action

93% - Leicester’s pass efficiency in buildup (actual completion compared to expected completion)

15 - High starts from turnovers for Arsenal, with 2 big chances created

Even against the low block, Arsenal found ways to create openings time and time again. It wasn’t some of the most efficient passing but Arsenal found ways to get the ball into dangerous locations, especially from the right half space. That is especially impressive without the main creative fulcrum in the team out with injury.

Overall it was a day where Arsenal were able to get shots from multiple situations and caused all sorts of problems.

7 - Shots from fast breaks and quick transitions

11 - Shots from corner kick situations

2 - Shots from free kicks

16 - Shots from established possession in open play

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Defensive numbers bounce back

After a bit of worry and letting a half a season’s worth of shots from opponents over the last few weeks Arsenal were back to their suffocating best.

5 - Shots allowed, the fewest this season

0 - Big chances allowed

0.3 - xG allowed, the lowest this season

0.06 - xG per shot allowed

11 - Touches in the box allowed, the lowest this season

It did end up with two goals allowed which isn’t ideal but overall Arsenal were hard to break through and Leicester didn’t have much chance to create danger on the counter at all. The biggest threat was not getting beat behind; instead, Jamie Vardy was diving for fouls after Leicester managed to get the ball up the field.

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Martinelli finds the back of the net

5 - Shots

0.77 - xG

2 - Big Chances

13 - Touches in the box (led all players)

15 - Progressive carries, plus 1/2 dribbling

6 - Progressive passes received

8 - Final third entry passes received

2 - Key passes

5 - Progressive passes

0.5 - xG assisted

It is a very good thing to see Martinelli get back on the scoresheet with a goal and an assist here. He got an assist last weekend but it was an “assist” with Riccardo Calafiori’s finish getting most of the credit, here he actually earned it with his overall performance. If you have been watching you could see that this was potentially there, it just wasn’t finding the back of the net, I am very glad it today in this game (by the looks of things, so was he).

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The fullbacks shine

124 - Passes completed combined, 63 for Timber and 61 for Calafiori

10 - Progressive passes combined, 7 for Timber and 3 for Calafiori

9 - Key passes combined, 7 for Timber and 2 for Calafiori

0.7 - xG assisted combined, 0.6 for Timber and 0.1 for Calafiori

15 - Final third entries combined, 9 for Timber and 6 for Calafiori

11 - Progressive carries combined, 4 for Timber and 7 for Calafiori

17 - Defensive actions combined, 8 for Timber and 9 for Calafiori

7 - Aerial Duels won combined, 1 for Timber and 6 for Calafiori

It is pretty impressive to think that this time last year Timber was rehabbing from an ACL rupture and Calafiori was playing in Italy because both players have come into the team and made it look like they belonged here and trying to take them out of the lineup will be hard.

After a bit of a slow start on the ball playing on his unnatural side, Timber is looking very much at home over on the right. He looks incredibly comfortable doing the triple role from right back where Arsenal ask them to be a centerback/midfielder/attacker all in one. His 7 key passes in the match are second in the Premier League this season only to his teammate Bukayo Saka.

Calafiori also looked like a breath of fresh air on the left-hand side. After some awkward fits trying to squeeze right-footed players on that side where it seemed to hurt the team’s balance he has come in and helped up the attacking threat down that side.

In this match, the tilt still ended up towards the right-hand side but the left-hand side was not an afterthought like it has been at times this season.

I am not writing Ben White out at all but it is a relief to have other options to where his absence due to injury isn’t something that makes the whole team fall apart.