Arsenal 5-0 Crystal Palace: The Debrief

A satisfying result, but was it a satisfying win?

There is no bad time to put up a 5-0 scoreline but there are times that are better than others.

This was a time when it was needed, for the players and the fans. The team was down after seeing the team fall from first on the table to fourth, dropping points in very frustrating ways, and crashing out of the FA Cup in the same way.

This didn’t answer all the questions that people have about Arsenal and might still have been unsatisfying for some but it was a win and a performance that hopefully starts changing the narrative around the club.

Arsenal 5-0 Crystal Palace: The Graphics

Arsenal 5-0 Crystal Palace: The Debrief

21 - Shots, 4th most this season in the Premier League

2.45 - Expected goals (3.2 on the Opta model from FBRef), 7th (2nd on Opta’s model) most this season in the Premier League

15 - Shots from open play, 5th most this season in the Premier League

1.84 - Expected goals from open play, 5th most this season in the Premier League

40 - Touches in the box, 7th most this season in the Premier League

12 - Shots Allowed, surprisingly this was 5th most this season in the Premier League

0.44 - Expected Goals allowed (0.3 on the Opta model), 4th lowest this season in the Premier League

5 - Shots allowed from open play, 7th fewest this season in the Premier League

0.22 - Open play expected goals allowed, 4th lowest this season in the Premier League

10 - Touches in the box allowed, 4th fewest this season in the Premier League

It isn’t often that a 5-0 scoreline leaves a fanbase not fully satisfied and that is certainly the impression I got from within the bubble of Arsenal fans I interact with.

To a certain extent, this sentiment isn’t wrong, it is just misguided.

This was not the best that Arsenal have played this season or anything, in fact, it was not materially better than Arsenal have played in the last 6 weeks when they won just one of seven matches.

What it is for me an illustration that so much of the anger and doom was down to little moments that went a different way, Arsenal did not go away for a warm weather camp to magically fix and transform themselves because the team was not broken and didn’t need to be “fixed.”

Looking at this performance against Crystal Palace in comparison to the other matches that Arsenal have played in the Premier League this season hammer this home.

It was a good performance but not better than what Arsenal have done this year.

The things that bug people are still kind of there and they were not emphatically answered.

The team’s inability to generate shots from open play? That was there, with only 4 and 0.24 xG created. For the match as a whole, it is less of an issue with the team generating 15 and 1.85 expected goals. For the pessimistic, you could say it was stat padding with 0.5 of that coming from the two late Martinelli chances.

Downstream from that perhaps it is the execution. Arsenal got into a fair amount of dangerous locations with 208 final third touches (this was right about average for Arsenal) but didn’t really create a ton of danger from it. If you want to break down into just the first half you could make a strong case that the team struggled to turn the final third possession into even better possession, completing just 6 passes from open play into the box and having just 14 touches in the box.

This again is less strong when you look at the match as a whole. With the second half coming off much better and the team generating good but not spectacular numbers.

I have seen people say that this felt ponderous and slow still from Arsenal. I can’t help what people feel about a match but this is not back by the numbers and in my instant reaction I highlighted that I thought that this was a break from that, with the team seemingly playing more one or two touch passes and with more quickness to get the ball up the field, especially after the initial pressure was broken.

The numbers back this up as well. The average speed of the match was 2 progressive yards per second in possession, this was the 6th most direct speed that Arsenal have had this season. In this match, Arsenal had 6 direct fast attacks, of the 10 shooting sequences that started more than 40 yards from goal, 8 of them had Arsenal’s speed of attack over 3 yards of progressive distance covered per second.

This was not even a major departure from Arsenal, who still had more of the possession and more control of the match, it was just a tweak where it looked like the intent was to play quickly and decisively.

Arsenal still played over 8 passes per time they had a possession sequence but did so with more verticality and intent.

One match does not make a trend but looking at the locations where the front three received their passes backs up my view. All three players, especially in the final third seemed to be able to get into and receive less hugging the touchline and more the central or half-spaces.

I think these tweaks are what tie everything together above, mixed with some game-state effects of going ahead in the 10th minute. At the back Arsenal were roughly the same looking to build and play through Crystal Palace. In the middle and final third, to my eye Arsenal wanted to play quicker and into more dangerous locations.

It didn’t always come off, especially in the first half but when Arsenal kept playing that way it did turn because the process was good. This is similar to what we have seen with the team and the chances that they created but didn’t score.

Results can vary wildly and depend on lots of little things going right so it is more important to focus on the process and performance. This continues to sum up Arsenal right now, and that can be very frustrating at times but hopefully this is a turning of a page.

The finishing slump comes to an end!

113 - Shots by Arsenal in the matches from Aston Villa to Liverpool (FA Cup)

12.4 - Expected goals in that run

7.1 - Post Shot expected goals based on where on frame those shots were during that run

4 - Goals scored in that run

1% - The probability of scoring just 4 goals from that quality of chances

6% - The probability of scoring just 4 goals from that quality of finishing

21 - Shots against Crystal Palace

2.45 - Expected goals against Crystal Palace

3.1 - Post Shot expected goals against Crystal Palace

5 - Goals scored against Crystal Palace

4% - The probability of scoring 5 goals from that quality of chances Arsenal had against Crystal Palace

6% - The probability of scoring 5 goals from that quality of finishing Arsenal had against Crystal Palace

We don’t want to get into gamblers fallacy with thinking that because Arsenal had finished under expected they were “due” to have a good finishing day but it does point in the direction that continues the theme that things were not broken and need of a massive fix.

Jorginho has an impressive cameo

29 - Pass Attempts on 89.7% pass completion percentage

106.1% - Pass Efficiency (actual pass completion compared to expected pass completion)

5 - Final 3rd Entry Passes, led Arsenal

9 - Progressive Passes, led Arsenal

3 - Deep Completions (not Cross)

1 - Key Pass, led to an assist

0.22 - xA

1 - Shot

0.02 - xG

2 - Tackles, 50% success rate

1 - Blocked Pass

4 - Ball Recoveries

0.18 - Goal Probability Added

2.29 - Fields Gained, total ball progression via passing and carrying

Jorginho was on the pitch for a little over 20 minutes with extra time and put on a clinic during that time. He was incredibly progressive, looking to play home run passes over and over and more often than not having them come off. He has played excellent for Arsenal this season in his minutes and has won over people who might have been skeptical of his transfer.

With Declan Rice pulled early as a precaution feeling tightness in his hamstring, it is reassuring to have Jorginho (and a recovering Thomas Partey) to potentially be able to call upon should they be needed.