We have reached the quarter of the Premier League season mark and that means that we actually have a big enough sample size to start looking at the data and start feeling confident on what it is trying to tell us about Arsenal.
For this we will continue to use the baseline of what previous Premier League Champions have done and compare Arsenal against this baseline. We should be aware that the Premier League has never been stronger so what Arsenal are up against isn’t a perfect 1-to-1 compassion but it is still a good goal to help set expectations for a title caliber team.
I will continue to use the same set of stats to measure as I have in the past (points, goals, xG, shots, deep completions, and field tilt), I think that these cover overall performance well and help paint a picture of what a team is doing well/poorly at for overall performance.
My grading will be somewhat subjective here but it will be tied heavily towards how the team is performing or trending compared to the targets set out here. I will look at the overall season level while also keeping an eye on how the last 10 matches are going. This will be primarily for the Premier League only, but I will take into account a bit more of a holistic view for the overall season with a bit of a view for how the team is doing in the Champions League and a tiny bit for the domestic cups.
Let’s get into it.
Points
Season Avg: 2.67 per match
Last 10 Avg: 2.70 per match
Season Goal: 2.35 per match (89-point pace)
↗️ Arsenal are on top of the table with an 8-0-1 record. Not too shabby there.
If that continued it would be good for over 100 points, it probably won’t but I am not going to tell them to stop doing it.
As with just about any time a team is on a 100 point pace, they are probably getting a few bounces going their way and that is true for this Arsenal team right now. This doesn’t mean that they aren’t a good team but they have won more of the close matches and the one “footballing” they got came in the League Cup.
The most encouraging data points here looking at Arsenal compared to the rest of the League is that they have the most “should win” matches and they have zero matches in the “lean” or “should” lose section.
It’s a good spot to be in.
Non-Penalty Goals
Goals For
Season Avg: 1.44 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.50 per match
Season Goal: 2.08 per match
Goals Against
Season Avg: 0.56 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.60 per match
Season Goal: 0.77 per match
Goal Difference
Season Avg: 0.89 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.90 per match
Season Goal: 1.31 per match
↘️ Arsenal could use just a touch more in attack and that would move them up here into the passing grade. Right now they have just the 3rd best goal difference in the League and selfishly I want to see them on top of this one.
The shooting locations look good, the average quality is high, the team is just short on volume.
Just a bit more please.
Expected Goals
Non-Penalty Expected Goals
Season Avg: 1.66 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.76 per match
Season Goal: 1.87 per match
Non-Penalty Expected Goals Against
Season Avg: 0.74 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.77 per match
Season Goal: 0.81 per match
Non-Penalty Expected Goal Difference
Season Avg: 0.92 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.00 per match
Season Goal: 1.06 per match
➡️ When thinking about these things, ultimately I care much more about the difference than narrowing in on either the for or against column. On that Arsenal basically right on the expectation for a title winner. They currently lead the league in non-penalty expected goals difference and that is what I like to see.
Open Play Shots
Open Play Shots For
Season Avg: 9.89 per match
Last 10 Avg: 10.30 per match
Season Goal: 12.54 per match
Open Play Shots Against
Season Avg: 8.00 per match
Last 10 Avg: 7.90 per match
Season Goal: 6.89 per match
Open Play Shots Difference
Season Avg: 1.89 per match
Last 10 Avg: 2.40 per match
Season Goal: 5.66 per match
↘️ This has been a bit of an issue for Arsenal now for a while. They have done an excellent job of keeping the opposition from getting good looks but they haven’t been rampant at generating their own shots at goal. That hasn’t changed this season and they look decent here but not nearly as good as I would like to see from them.
Arsenal are positive here but they can do more to push further into the down and to the right quadrant.
Deep Completions
Deep Completions For
Season Avg: 29.22 per match
Last 10 Avg: 28.50 per match
Season Goal: 27.01 per match
Deep Completions Against
Season Avg: 15.22 per match
Last 10 Avg: 15.20 per match
Season Goal: 12.51 per match
Deep Completion Difference
Season Avg: 40.00 per match
Last 10 Avg: 13.30 per match
Season Goal: 14.50 per match
↗️ Above trend and that is what you like to see. I like to think that this is a leading indicator for future attacking success so hopefully getting more opportunities here will lead to more shots and more goals.
Field Tilt
Season Avg: 60.97% per match
Last 10 Avg: 61.37% per match
Season Goal: 64.45% per match
➡️ The field tilt took a bit of hit after last week’s match against Liverpool where they camped in the Arsenal defensive third but overall for the season Arsenal are in the range that you want to see from a title winning team. I hope and expect that against Hull this weekend Arsenal will be able to cancel out the effect of the Liverpool match.
Overall
At this point of the season, if you aren’t happy with Arsenal it kind of feels like you are trying to find a reason to be negative. There are little nits that you can pick on the team but the big picture is incredibly bright for them.
After back to back dropped points from Manchester City (who have their punishment hanging over everything) Arsenal have moved into the driver’s seat for the title.
If City do see a big points deduction the title odds would probably be pushing into the 90%+ range already.
Take a second and appreciate that.
It is November and Arsenal are heavy favorites to repeat as Champions of the Premier League. I don’t think I would have thought this would be where we were a few short years ago.
It is no fluke either, this team has been consistently one of the best in the world and even with key injuries hasn’t missed much of a beat showing that again this season.
In fact they are on pace to improve on last year’s numbers.
With a very simplistic projection with everything staying the same as last season, that would put Arsenal on 92 points and putting up a new high for points in a season.
We will be back to check on this next month.