As I sat down to write the first update to one of my favorite reoccurring posts, I realized in my exuberance of Arsenal winning the league and the hustle and bustle of the transfer window I never set any sorts of expectations and targets for what I would deem a successful season.
I don’t see any reason that the target’s for this season should change from what they have been these past few seasons. I expect Arsenal to fighting to win the Premier League and the expectations are based on what other teams who have won the league before them have done.
There is a slight change this season from the past, and that is because I have more seasons of data here to pull from. Instead of only going back to 2017-18, this now goes all the way back to the 2010-11 Premier League season. This will make it so that if you look at previous versions of this the targets will be slightly different but I think that is better because it will be including more teams that didn’t use sham contracts to flagrantly break Premier League rules.
I will continue to use the same set of stats to measure as I have in the past (points, goals, xG, shots, deep completions, and field tilt), I think that these cover overall performance well and help paint a picture of what a team is doing well/poorly at for overall performance.
My grading will be somewhat subjective here but it will be tied heavily towards how the team is performing or trending compared to the targets set out here. I will look at the overall season level while also keeping an eye on how the last 10 matches are going. This will be primarily for the Premier League only, but I will take into account a bit more of a holistic view for the overall season with a bit of a view for how the team is doing in the Champions League and a tiny bit for the domestic cups.
Let’s get into it.
Points
Season Avg: 2.40 per match
Last 10 Avg: 2.70 per match
Season Goal: 2.35 per match (89-point pace)
↗️ Arsenal are on second in the table to start the season. They have 4 wins and a loss out of their opening five matches.
This puts them on a 91 point pace. It was a real bummer to lose the last match going into a long international break but there isn’t too much to complain about from a results perspective to start the season without coming across as a bit of a dick.
We all hate to see the team drop any points but I’d be quite happy to see Arsenal win 91 points this season and to repeat this same five match run over and over the rest of the season.
Non-Penalty Goals
Goals For
Season Avg: 1.40 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.50 per match
Season Goal: 2.08 per match
Goals Against
Season Avg: 0.80 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.50 per match
Season Goal: 0.77 per match
Goal Difference
Season Avg: 0.60 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.00 per match
Season Goal: 1.31 per match
↘️ The goals here is a bit mixed but I am going to say here that I think that I expect more from this team.
The goals allowed numbers are totally fine. There is a bit of a blemish from the 3 goals allowed to Brighton but that is an outlier for how good this defense has been. Even with that the defensive numbers stack up strongly against other title winning teams.
The other side of the ball is the obvious talking point and weakness. Arsenal are just over 1 non-penalty goal per match so far this season. Last season Arsenal had the second lowest non-penalty goals scored tally for a league winner since the 10/11 season and while they certainly can win the league that way again, I think that we would all like to see Arsenal score more.
If the team stays healthy (maybe a big if) it is a reasonable expectation to expect more end product from this team.
The strong defensive numbers provide an excellent platform for the goal difference, which is ultimately what matters most for points, but it will be something that will be watched closely this season.
Expected Goals
Non-Penalty Expected Goals
Season Avg: 1.52 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.66 per match
Season Goal: 1.87 per match
Non-Penalty Expected Goals Against
Season Avg: 0.68 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.70 per match
Season Goal: 0.81 per match
Non-Penalty Expected Goal Difference
Season Avg: 0.84 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.74 per match
Season Goal: 1.06 per match
↘️ The expected goals numbers track similarly to goals so this rating will generally be very similar. Right now, the bounces have generally gone against Arsenal and the expected numbers look a bit better than the actual numbers.
Open Play Shots
Open Play Shots For
Season Avg: 9.60 per match
Last 10 Avg: 9.20 per match
Season Goal: 12.54 per match
Open Play Shots Against
Season Avg: 7.60 per match
Last 10 Avg: 7.00 per match
Season Goal: 6.89 per match
Open Play Shots Difference
Season Avg: 2.00 per match
Last 10 Avg: 2.20 per match
Season Goal: 5.66 per match
↘️ Continuing the trend here from goals and expected goals we have shots.
It has been an on going talking point about Arsenal’s open play production now for a few seasons going. It is not something that I anticipate will be going away anytime soon (even though Arsenal have not scored a non-penalty set play goal this season).
It’s early on and there is still lots of noise in the numbers, but Arsenal are slightly below the league average on generating shots from open play.
In the Premier League Arsenal have taken the following open play shots in each of their matches this season 14, 4, 14, 9, and 8. The number of times where Arsenal have been in the single digits for shots here is a something that is bordering on a concern.
If Arsenal were killing it generating looks and goals from set plays I would be more willing to let this pass by but that hasn’t been the case this season. This will be something that I continue to watch.
Deep Completions
Deep Completions For
Season Avg: 27.80 per match
Last 10 Avg: 25.50 per match
Season Goal: 27.01 per match
Deep Completions Against
Season Avg: 11.40 per match
Last 10 Avg: 11.30 per match
Season Goal: 12.51 per match
Deep Completion Difference
Season Avg: 16.40 per match
Last 10 Avg: 14.20 per match
Season Goal: 14.50 per match
↗️ After a few negative sections, we do finally have a positive one!
This one is in the green all the way around with Arsenal beating the target in attack, defense, and in the overall difference.
Last season, Arsenal did well at keeping teams out of this area and were at target on the difference but struggled on progressing the ball into dangerous locations in attack. This season they have bounced back and currently rank second in the League for total deep completions. A big part of that is the return of a healthy Martin Ødegaard.
I think that this tends to be a bit of a leading indicator for shots and xG, so even though those aren’t so hot right now, the team’s ability to get the ball into dangerous locations gives a reason for optimism that it will improve.
Field Tilt
Season Avg: 59.82% per match
Last 10 Avg: 61.98% per match
Season Goal: 64.45% per match
➡️ Not a lot to say about this metric. Arsenal are a bit below target but basically hitting the expectation.
Arsenal have done well to have more of the ball in the opponents final third this season. They can do a bit better and are still a bit below target but I am not overly concerned about this one.
Overall
It is still early and the numbers are still in the small sample size realm where we can’t be making too large of conclusions from them. That being said, I don’t think that there is anything that we have seen watching Arsenal or in the underlying performance data that would cause us to move off of the prior that Arsenal are one of the strongest team’s in the League and a favorite for the title again.
That doesn’t mean that there are things that they can improve upon but the big picture is still very positive about this team.
One of the other things that I am going to track this season in these updates is how the team is doing compared to last season. So far the team is +2 on points with overall very similar underlying performance.
We will be back to check on this next month.
I haven't finished reading but I already love because of this "but I think that is better because it will be including more teams that didn’t use sham contracts to flagrantly break Premier League rules."