Arsenal have dropped 21 points from winning positions, problem or randomness?

Arsenal have turned 10 wins into 9 draws and a loss this season, dropping 21 points. That's not good and deserving of a bit of extra analysis

On Saturday Arsenal dropped their 21st point of the season from a winning position.

This is the 6th most of any teams this season and it is one of the big causes for the current gap from Arsenal to Liverpool at the top of the table and one of the reasons that Arsenal have been dragged back into having some doubt about their position in the top 5, let alone being able to wrap up their third straight second place season.

Arsenal have taken the lead in 28 matches this season and have gone on to win just 18 of those matches.

The 21 points dropped is more than Arsenal had in the 2023/24 and 2022/23 seasons combined, where they dropped just 17 points total from winning positions. In fact over Arteta’s time as a coach this season has been an outlier compared to all the other full seasons.

• 2024/25: 28 times winning, 21 points dropped

• 2023/24: 32 times winning, 9 points dropped

• 2022/23: 30 times winning, 8 points dropped

• 2021/22: 26 times winning, 11 points dropped

• 2020/21: 21 times winning, 8 points dropped

Overall, the numbers for Arsenal look decent. On the understat xG (your milage may vary on the xG model and they are different than my numbers but they are easily available here) Arsenal are second to Liverpool in xG difference at a +1 game state this season. They are at +0.9 with Liverpool ahead a fraction at +0.93, and that is better than the third best team Brentford who are at +0.74.

The Premier League at the +1, man even game state. Data and Visualization via Macro Football

This is actually better than last season where Arsenal were +0.83 in the +1 goal game state and ranked 5th in the Premier League.

In 2022/23 it is more of the same with Arsenal at +0.47 xG difference per 90 at the +1 goal game state, where they ranked 7th in the Premier League.

This is a situation where again, it is hard to say that it looks like there is a systemic issue with Arsenal that needs to be fixed. The xG numbers are solid, maybe a bit too much allowed here for how highly we think about the defensive unit but still a +0.9 number is very good and should not be the type of situation that typically leads to dropping points in 10 matches.

It’s also a bit surprising that given that Arsenal have such good attacking numbers that they have only gone from +1 to +2 13 times this season out of 28 would not be what you would expect.

It’s unfortunate and doesn’t make it feel better but it’s also probably an explanation that 4 of the 10 this season have come in the last 5 played with Arsenal pretty much in the full focus on the Champions League, with two of the early ones coming in matches where Arsenal were down to 10 men against Brighton and Manchester City.

Given that this season looks like an outlier under Arteta I am willing to chalk this up to a sometime weird stuff happens, especially when you start slicing up a season into less than 900 minute chunks.

Here is how Arsenal have done in each match this season in this game state:

Arsenal vs Wolves

Arsenal score in the 25th minute.

At +1 game state they have the following:

Arsenal had 10 shots, creating 0.79 xG

Wolves had 5 shots worth 0.42 xG

Bukayo Saka scores in the 74th minute to take it to 2-0 and Arsenal go on to win from that scoreline.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Arsenal score in the 67th minute.

At +1 game state they have the following:

Arsenal had 1 shot, creating 0.06 xG (they ended up scoring from it).

Aston Villa are held to 0 shots during this time.

Thomas Partey scores in the 77th minute to take it to 2-0 and Arsenal go on to win from that scoreline.

Arsenal vs Brighton

Arsenal score in the 38th minute.

At +1 game state they have the following:

Arsenal had 3 shots for 0.14 xG. They then got THAT red card in the 49th minute. Up to that point is was 3 shots to 0 allowed.

Overall Brighton have 5 shots and 0.91 xG, with João Pedro scoring in the 58th minute.

From there Brighton have 14 shots and 0.74 xG while Arsenal playing on the break have 3 shots and 0.26 xG.

This match ends 1-1 and Arsenal drop 2 points from a winning position.

Tottenham vs Arsenal

Arsenal score in the 64th minute.

At +1 game state they have the following:

Arsenal took 0 shots the rest of the game.

Tottenham took 6 shots, but they were limited to low quality looks worth just 0.18 xG.

The match ends 1-0 to the Arsenal. This match also has the context of missing Martin Odegaard and Declan Rice for what it is worth. It was still far from the best attacking performance the team has done this season.

Manchester City vs Arsenal

Manchester City took the lead in the 9th minute, Arsenal tie it up in the 22nd minute, and take the lead in the 46th minute.

At 45+7 Leandro Trossard is given a second yellow. Between the goal and red card there are no shots.

After the red card Arsenal have 1 shot for 0.05 xG.

Manchester City have 28 shots for 1.67 xG, finally scoring in the 98th minute.

The match ends 1-1 and Arsenal drop 2 points from a winning position. That is 4 for the season but it is also plus 1 from a losing position.

Arsenal vs Leicester

Arsenal score in the 20th minute.

At +1 Arsenal here take 8 shots worth 0.79 xG scoring a second goal in the 46th minute.

Leicester are held to 0 shots.

Leicester score in the 47th minute with the score 2-0 to bring it back to +1.

In this period, Arsenal have 8 more shots for 0.83 xG.

Leicester have 3 shots for 0.17 xG and end up scoring a worldy to take it back to a tied game.

Arsenal get an own goal in the 94th minute, adding on 2 more shots at +1 game state and 0.8 xG scoring in the 99th minute.

The match ends 4-2.

Arsenal vs Southampton

Southampton score first in this match in the 55th minute. Arsenal respond back with a goal in the 58th minute and take the lead in the 68th minute.

At +1, Arsenal have 4 shots for 0.25 xG, adding a third goal to make it 3-1 in the 88th minute.

Southampton had a fair number of chances themselves taking 2 shots for 0.36 xG.

The match ends 3-1. Arsenal pick up 3 points from a losing position bringing the total to 4 on the season.

Bournemouth vs Arsenal

Arsenal are never leading in this match. It ends 0-2 after Arsenal go down to 10 men.

Arsenal vs Liverpool

Arsenal take the lead in the 9th minute.

At +1, Arsenal have 0 shots.

Liverpool take 2 shots, for 0.44 xG and equalize in the 18th minute.

Arsenal retake the lead in the 43rd minute.

At +1, Arsenal have 1 shot, for 0.06 xG.

Liverpool take 7 shots, for 0.68 xG equalizing in the 81st minute.

The match ends 2-2. Arsenal drop 2 points from a winning position bringing the total to 6 on the season.

Newcastle vs Arsenal

Arsenal are never leading in this match. It ends 0-1.

Chelsea vs Arsenal

Arsenal take the lead in the 60th minute on a goal from Gabriel Martinelli.

At +1 they take 2 shots, for 0.09 xG.

Chelsea take 3 shots, for 0.13 xG. They equalized in the 70th minute here.

The match ends 1-1. Arsenal drop 2 points from a winning position bringing the total to 8 on the season.

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest

Arsenal take the lead in the 15th minute through Saka.

At +1 they have 8 shots, for 0.6 xG scoring their second goal in the 52nd minute.

Forest manages just 2 shots, for 0.11 xG.

The match ends 3-0.

West Ham vs Arsenal

Arsenal score in the 10th minute through Gabriel Magalhães.

At +1 they have 3 shots for 0.75 xG, scoring their second goal in the 27th minute.

West Ham are held to 0 shots.

The match ends 5-2 to Arsenal.

Arsenal vs Manchester United

Arsenal score in the 54th minute through Jurriën Timber.

At +1 they have 3 shots for 0.72 xG, scoring their second goal in the 73rd minute.

Manchester United have 2 shots that are worth 0.13 xG.

The match ends 2-0 to Arsenal.

Fulham vs Arsenal

Arsenal never lead in this match. They came back from a 1 goal deficit bringing them to 4 points won from a losing position.

Arsenal vs Everton

Arsenal never lead in this match, it ends 0-0.

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Arsenal take the lead in the 6th minute while Gabriel Jesus is on a massive heater of scoring against Crystal Palace.

At +1 they have 0 shots.

Crystal Palace take 3 shots, for 0.2 xG equalizing in the 11th minute.

Arsenal take the lead again through Gabriel Jesus in the 14th minute.

At +1 again, this time Arsenal take 3 shots, for 0.97 xG and push the lead to 3-1 in the 38th minute.

Crystal Palace have 4 shots for 0.75 xG.

The match ends 5-1 in favor of Arsenal.

Arsenal vs Ipswich

Arsenal take the lead through Kai Havertz in the 23rd minute.

At +1 they have 10 shots, for 1.08 xG.

Ipswich have 3 shots, for 0.14 xG.

The match ends 1-0 in favor of Arsenal.

Brentford vs Arsenal

Brentford take the lead here in the 13th minute. Arsenal equalize in the 29th minute through Gabriel Jesus. They take the lead in the 50th minute through Mikel Merino.

At +1 they have just 1 shot, for 0.08 xG and they score in the 53rd minute to take the lead.

Brentford have 0 shots in that moment.

The match ends 3-1, Arsenal pick up more points from a losing position, they are at 7 on the season.

Brighton vs Arsenal

Arsenal take the lead in the 16th minute through an Ethan Nwaneri goal.

At +1 they have just 3 shots, for 0.39 xG.

Brighton have 8 shots, for 1.61 xG (including a controversial penalty).

The match ends 1-1. Arsenal drop 2 more points from a winning position bringing the total to 10 on the season.

Arsenal vs Tottenham

Tottenham take the lead in the 25th minute behind a Son Heung-Min goal. Arsenal equalized through a Solanke own goal in the 40th minute and then took the lead 4 minutes later after a Trossard goal.

At +1 they have 11 shots, for 1.39 xG.

Tottenham have 9 shots, for 0.62 xG..

The match ends 2-1, Arsenal pick up 3 points from a losing position here, for +10 this season.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

Arsenal take the lead here in the 35th minute behind a Martinelli goal.

At +1 they have 5 shots, for 0.45 xG scoring their second in the 55th minute.

Aston Villa have 0 shots in this period.

Aston Villa do score in the 60th minute to bring it back to +1.

At +1 again, they have 3 shots for 0.11 xG.

Aston Villa have just 1 shot, scoring their 0.28 xG chance.

The game ends 2-2, Arsenal drop 2 points from a winning position. That is now 12 lost on the season.

Wolves vs Arsenal

This is the match with the Lewis-Skelly “red” card. Arsenal do take the lead here after Wolves pickup their own red card in the 74th minute.

At +1, Arsenal have 0 shots.

Wolves take 2 shots for 0.07 xG.

The match ends in a 1-0 victory.

Arsenal vs Manchester City

Arsenal take an early lead with a second minute goal for Martin Odegaard.

At +1, Arsenal have 2 shots for 0.57 xG.

Manchester City have 7 shots for 0.67 xG, equalizing in the 55th minute.

Arsenal respond right back scoring in the 56th minute.

At +1 again, Arsenal have 2 shots for 0.1 xG scoring in the 62nd minute to make it +2 again.

Manchester City had no shots in this second period.

Arsenal would go on to win 5-1.

Leicester vs Arsenal

Arsenal took a long time to score in this match, with their first goal not coming until the 81st minute through Mikel Merino.

At +1 Arsenal had just 1 shot, it was another goal scored from Merino again from a 0.4 xG chance.

Leicester managed 0 shots.

The match ended 2-0 to Arsenal.

Arsenal vs West Ham

Arsenal never lead in this match and ended up losing 0-1. This is another match where they are down to 10 men with Lewis-Skelly given a DOGSO red card.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

Arsenal never lead in this match, it ends 0-0.

Manchester United vs Arsenal

Manchester United take the lead at 45+1. Arsenal equalize in the 74th minute through Declan Rice. They never lead in this match but this is another point picked up from a losing position, bringing them to 11 on the season.

Arsenal vs Chelsea

Arsenal take the lead in the 20th minute through Mikel Merino.

At +1, they have 6 shots for 0.38 xG.

Chelsea have 8 shots for 0.38 xG.

The match ends 1-0 to the Arsenal.

Arsenal vs Fulham

Arsenal take the lead in the 37th minute through Merino again.

At +1, they have 10 shots, for 1.63 xG scoring their second goal in the 73rd minute.

Fulham are held to just 3 shots and 0.12 xG.

Fulham do score a late 93rd minute goal.

At +1 again Fulham have 1 more shot that was worth 0.01 xG while Arsenal had 0 shots in the closing minute.

The match ends 2-1 to Arsenal.

Everton vs Arsenal

Arsenal take the lead in the 34th minute through Leandro Trossard.

At +1 Arsenal take 2 shots, for 0.4 xG.

Everton have 3 shots, for 0.93 xG (including a penalty) equalizing in the 49th minute.

The match ends 1-1. Arsenal drop 2 more points from a winning position bring the total to 14 on the season.

Arsenal vs Brentford

Arsenal take the lead in the 61st minute through Thomas Partey.

At +1 Arsenal take 0 shots.

Brentford equalize just 13 minutes later having taken 1 shot for 0.14 xG.

The match ends 1-1. Arsenal drop 2 more points from a winning position bring the total to 16 on the season.

Ipswich vs Arsenal

Arsenal take the lead in the 14th minute through Trossard.

At +1 they have 5 shots for 0.88 xG, scoring again in the 28th minute.

Ipswich had 0 shots.

Ipswich get a red card in the 32nd minute and Arsenal cruise to a 4-0 win.

Arsenal vs Crystal-Palace

Arsenal take the lead here in the 3rd minute behind a Kiwior goal.

At +1, Arsenal have 2 shots for 0.09 xG.

Crystal Palace have 5 shots for 0.57 xG, equalizing in the 27th minute.

Arsenal regain the lead in the 42nd minute with a Trossard goal.

At +1 the second time, Arsenal manage 7 shots for 1.28 xG.

Crystal Palace have 7 shots of their own for 0.92 xG and equalize again in the 83rd minute.

The match ends 2-2. Arsenal drop 2 more points from a winning position bring the total to 18 on the season.

Arsenal vs Bournemouth

Arsenal take the lead in the 34th minute through Declan Rice.

At +1, Arsenal take 6 shots for 0.69 xG.

Bournemouth have 5 shots for 0.32 xG, equalizing in the 67th minute.

Arsenal will go on to lose the match 1-2. Dropping 3 points from a winning position and bringing the total this season to 21 on the season.