Arsenal have survived the Gabriel Jesus Injury

Things looked bleak when the news broke, but with Jesus readying for a return it looks like Arsenal have weathered the storm.

When the news broke that Gabriel Jesus had suffered a knee injury at the World Cup, I was (along with the rest of Arsenal Twitter and fandom) freaking out. Arsenal had a 5 point lead after 14 matches played, and were on a 100-point pace.

A big part of that improvement was the new additions to the team with Jesus replacing Alexandre Lacazette and Oleksander Zinchenko moving into the first eleven ahead of Kieren Tierney. The two players came in and brought a team that was borderline top 4 and really boosted the team's ceiling into genuine title contenders.

So with the news that he was going to miss 12-15 weeks, it was very understandable that Arsenal would potentially suffer and perhaps drop out of the title race in his absence.

Thankfully Arsenal have mostly survived this period. Arsenal still have a 5-point lead over Manchester City and this is a better 5-point lead because rather than 24 matches to play there are 12 matches to go. The team performance has suffered but it hasn’t led to the team being punished with their position on the table.

Arsenal’s points per match has seen a dip since the team has come back from the World Cup. Before the break Arsenal had earned 37 points over 14 matches (100-point pace) and since they have earned 26 points over 12 matches (82-point pace). This is not unexpected because while Arsenal were playing excellently, playing at a 100-point pace for a full season is really not something that many teams should expect and a step back was likely regardless of an injury or not.

Arsenal’s underlying metrics have reflected that drop in performance.

Thankfully the drop-off has not been as stark as it had been in seasons past but there is a bit of concern with Arsenal’s defense looking a bit more suspect.

A big part of that is that Arsenal have spent less time ahead compared to what they were doing previously. Before the World Cup Arsenal had spent 746 minutes winning, since the World Cup it is just 333 minutes. Arsenal have needed to commit more men forward to create threat vs what they were doing previously where they often got ahead early.

Before the World Cup Arsenal often dominated the opening 1st quarter of matches. They scored 9 goals against 0 allowed (8 goals to move them into the lead in 14 matches played) and that really helped shape that the team could look to stay solid vs needing to take additional risk.

Since coming back Arsenal have scored 4 goals and allowed 4 in the opening period of matches. All 4 of those goals allowed have put Arsenal behind and I think playing from behind has been a major issue for Arsenal’s defensive metrics.

Arsenal’s shot metrics against have not really changed much but the value of those shots have really jumped up.

Before the World Cup with Arsenal played mostly from in front, conceded 0.8 non-penalty expected goals, from 8.2 shots, and 1.2 big chances. That has changed to 1.3 non-penalty expected goals, from 8.3 shots, and 2.1 big chances.

Eddie Nketiah and Leandro Trossard have filled in well but getting Jesus back to help get the team’s attack back into top gear while also getting back his pressing should hopefully see Arsenal get back towards the early season production (it won’t guarantee the great record of scoring first comes back).

Arsenal have done more than survive the injury but getting Jesus back for the stretch run (I still can’t use ‘run in’ seriously without laughing) after the international break will be massive for Arsenal to keep Arsenal in the hunt for a long-awaited title.

Week 27 Premier League Odds

Liverpool will have a chance to keep their momentum from their big win going with the early match on Saturday. They already put 9 past Bournemouth and could they do another big number? It doesn’t look out of the picture.

I don’t have a ton of interest in the 7am kickoffs so I will probably watch the Goal Rush version to follow along with all the goals and major moments.

The late match will be of interest because it features Manchester City going to Crystal Palace. I know Crystal Palace under the lights is supposed to be hard but on paper this does not look good. Any dropped points here would be welcome from an Arsenal perspective.

Arsenal have the early Sunday match and will know exactly what they need to do to either keep pace with City or take advantage. This on the table seems like a harder match but Fulham have really spoofed their underlying numbers quite a bit this season and are not nearly as good as the points they have earned.

The other Sunday matches are not of a ton of interest. I would be sort of watching to see if West Ham can do anything to help their relegation odds but that doesn’t scream an entertaining match.

The weekend ends with Newcastle vs Wolves. Since the World Cup break ended Newcastle have been an atrocious attacking team, scoring just 6 goals in 9 matches, going against Wolves who have a stingy defense could be tough. They need to figure out something new now that teams respect them and they aren’t finishing their first shots to get ahead.

Yee Haw. Enjoy the weekend.