Arsenal keep an eye on Matheus Cunha

Cunha from Wolves is a talented and versatile player but the question would it make sense to pull this signing into January?

The January Transfer window is open and the rumors have started flowing in. While the rumors are still early I am going to keep things in this section and not go too deep or dedicate too much time into them until they seem like they have legs and a real possibility of happening.

The first rumor of the winter we are looking at here, I think is perfect for that; Matheus Cunha is a reported longterm player of interest for Arsenal but for a variety of reasons it would probably be a tough deal to get done in the winter window. This makes it perfect to do a quick check in on him but no spend too much time on a deal that has a low probability of being consummated.

Here is what Fabrizio Romano had to say about the potential for the move:

Arsenal have been tracking Cunha's progress even before his recent excellent form but no club-to-club contact has been made so far and Wolves insist on their intention to keep Cunha until June. Let's see what happens, based on eventual proposals.

I think that this makes a lot of sense. Wolves are in the, probably safe but losing their best player and not being able to replace him would be a major problem territory. With Cunha my last simulation had Wolves as the 16th best team and about 17% to be relegated.

That’s pretty safe but it is not so comfortable that as the owner of that team you would want to make a sale for anything less than a major above the odds money.

For now let’s set that aside and take a quick look at the numbers of Cunha:

Matheus Cunha Stats

His numbers look good but don’t jump out as looking amazing. He is a bit of a tweener where he has played all over the field so doesn’t neatly fit into any one position but does seem to do a good job filling in many positions.

The other one is that the headline number of GOALS looks like it is riding a wave of overperformance right now.

10 goals scored this season from 21 on target, 3.9 expected goals and 4.4 post shot xG is definitely on the I am not sure that this is real side of things.

Maybe he is just a plus finisher and this is something to expect. Looking at his numbers in the Premier League might suggest that there could be a bit of something to this with him finishing well above.

I do think I would still have some skeptism about it, looking at his career between the Bundesliga, La Liga, and the Premier League where he has 300+ shots, he is and even finisher.

Maybe it is a skill that has developed over the last few years but I would still hold a touch of apprehension if I was buying him driven by the goal scoring numbers.

Looking at his numbers a beyond this season he again looks solid.

The big question would be about how moving from a not great attacking team in Wolves, to a much more talented Arsenal team would change?

I think the big positive in this high level view is that there isn’t anything that jumps out for me as a major red flag (beyond ‘is the goal overperformance for real?’) to worry about. It would be interesting how it looks to get more detailed on the player.

How much over the odds makes sense?

Returning to this question is the key one. If Arsenal are convinced that he is good enough for them the next task would be trying to figure out what the right price to pay for him would be.

Transfermarkt puts him at €50m and that might be in the ballpark of what I would expect, probably pegging it at £40-£60m range. I think that would be very reasonable to expect in the summer time to spend on this caliber and age of player.

The problem is what premium would Wolves want to give him up now, when replacing his quality is hard/impossible. Wolves are looking fairly safe to stay up but losing this cailber of player would damage those chances.

If I was Wolves, I would do some deeper analysis but some back of the envelope math would look something like this.

The current relegation odds are about 15%, maybe they double and would be 30% without Cunha. Staying in the Premier League for an additional season is worth £100-£150m in additional revenue from TV, match day, and commerical deals.

If I were Wolves, I would look to see about covering off as much of the risk of relegation as possible with this sale (given that they could also sell in the summer regardless) and add on an addition £30-£45m on top of my inital price £40-£60m, making the demand something like £70-£100m.

At the bottom of that range there might be a deal to be done, and maybe that is the guaranteed money, with some bonuses built in that can help it rise closer to the higher figure. The bottom of this range I am not saying a reflexive no, at least not without digging deeper but that is a lot of money and is almost certainly bringing forward budget from the summer. The club would need to be very sure to want to want this deal.

So what do you think of Cunha? Is it worth digging deeper now?