Arsenal KPI Check: Final edition for 2023-24

How Arsenal performed compared to preseason expectations

The KPI posts are always one of my favorite ones to write about during the season. They provide a nice check to put things into context and to make sure that the day to day narrative around the team matches what is actually happening.

It also has the benefit of being able to go on the record for having a measurable bench mark for what would be considered a successful season rather than just going with a moving target that changes with vibes.

So lets get into things and see how the team compared to the numbers that were laid out last summer.

Points

Arsenal finished the season on a heater, going 16-1-1 in 2024 and pushing Manchester City until the final day. It wasn’t meant to be as Manchester City went 16-3-0 in that same time and it was enough to claim their 4th title in a row.

✔️On this measure, Arsenal beat out my expectation of 87 points earning the second highest point total in club history with 89 points.

Expected Goals

This measure is mixed and shows an area where Arsenal can get better next season. The team has scored the most goals ever for a 38 game season and breaking the 90 goal barrier but did so really overperforming their xG.

Overall the season numbers in the attack ended a bit behind the very high expectations but showed a positive sign for much of 2024 before falling away at the very end.

The defensive numbers were good all season but really became excellent in 2024. The key for next season is trying to keep that platform but eking out a few more chances.

🗙This is a partial pass and partial miss. Arsenal’s expected goals results are overall for the season below the targets with the defense hitting the expectation. The miss is driven by the performance early in the season where the team did well to pick up points but with performances that were lagging.

Hopefully some of the growing pains that the team experienced can be avoided with fewer major changes to the team that will need to be bedded in.

Shots

Shots, like expected goals showed lots of improvement as the team gelled.

The attack ended up hitting the expectation for the shots generated but the defense was a bit below the very tough measure to try and hit.

↔️ On this measure, things are a bit mixed so this is another partial pass but closer to an overall met expectations. The target for shots allowed is pretty crazy but that is what happens when you are compared to some of the best teams in League history. I am giving this a more generous grade given the attack generated a better margin than expected and the overall difference performance was closer.

Deep Completions

This is the metric I am looking at and it is just ridiculous. I think this is a leading indicator for a team. Getting the ball into and keeping teams out of dangerous locations is one of the more important things I look at. When this is going well a team seems set for sustained success and that is exactly what Arsenal have delivered here and it was an early indicator that the team was starting to figure things out in November.

↗️On this measure, Arsenal are exceeded expectations

Field Tilt

Arsenal is Field Tilt FC. It would be hard for a team to dominate the final third battle more than what Arsenal has done thus far. The team fell away a little at the end of the season but was still very strong all season.

↔️Overall, Arsenal met my expectations

Overall

Arsenal ended the season on a torrid run that nearly won them a title and had them in the conversation for being among the best teams in the game.

This team was also the first to beat a Manchester City team coached by Pep Guardiola in expected goals difference over a season. This wasn’t done by either Chelsea or Liverpool when they won the Premier League. They also matched them on goal difference.

This team is in a good spot and with the third youngest squad the future is bright. Finding the last few percentages of improvement will be hard but I remain very optimistic about this team and its future.