Arsenal KPI Check: January 2024

Checking in on Arsenal again compared to preseason expectations

Feb 09, 2024

Over 60% of the Premier League season has been played and the picture of how things look for teams is coming into focus. This is also a good time to break out one of my favorite reoccurring posts, looking at how Arsenal are doing on key metrics compared to my preseason expectations. I did wait a bit longer than usual because January was especially light in matches and I wanted to get the potential turning point against Liverpool in.

For the items presented below the blue line is the average for each season, and the red line for the current season is what I set out as my goal for Arsenal’s performance in that metric to be a ‘success’ (the average of 1st/2nd place metrics) at the beginning of the season.

Points

Arsenal are third place in the table, two points off first. Arsenal are currently on an 81-point pace and looking like they are third favorite in a three-team title race.

↘️On this measure, Arsenal are below the 87-point pace needed to hit the pre-season target but they are meeting my less lofty expectations.

Expected Goals

Arsenal's expected goals figures have taken a very positive turn of late. The attack was a major concern at the start of the year but that has really melted away with the team creating a lot more good opportunities (finishing could still get better). The defense started well and has held that level all year.

Overall the season numbers are still lagging behind expectations but they are moving in the right direction as the business end of the season approaches.

↔️Arsenal’s expected goals results are overall for the season below the targets but the trend is positive with the team hitting them over the last 10-12 weeks. I am going to say this is a pass giving more weight to the current form.

Shots

This was THE concern for me at the start of the year.

I did not like the trend for Arsenal’s shot volume. After 18 months of excellent progress, it took a step back. Thankfully that has been stopped and the team has rebounded to a new higher level.

On defense, I don’t really have any complaints. The team has done well at not allowing high volumes of shots and perhaps even more importantly has limited teams to the second-lowest average quality.

↔️On this measure, things are a bit mixed. The target for shots allowed is pretty crazy but that is what happens when you are compared to some of the best teams in League history. I am going to say this is a pass as well but if you want to be harsh you could say it is only partial.

Deep Completions

Getting and keeping teams away from dangerous locations is an important indicator. Last month I went as far as to call it “a leading indicator if there is positive things to come” for Arsenal. With hindsight that looks like a very good call, Arsenal’s numbers were good and have only gotten better.

↗️On this measure, Arsenal are exceeding expectations

Field Tilt

Arsenal is Field Tilt FC. It would be hard for a team to dominate the final third battle more than what Arsenal has done thus far.

↔️Overall Arsenal at my expectations

Overall

These metrics have expectations for Arsenal and they are meeting or exceeding expectations on 3 of them, with mixed results on 1 (even if I think that might be a bit harsh), and below expectations on 1 (the most important one to be fair).

Things are going well but they are not perfect, the slip up dropping points that shouldn’t have been dropped as hurt the team and might mean that a team that has the talent to make a real challenge in the League is in a tough spot.

Looking at them on the weighted xG and Goals for and against, Arsenal are up in the upper right corner (aka the good corner) for the Premier League so far this season. The team has steadily climbed up the rankings, especially recently, with the results pushing them right into the thick of the title race. Arsenal have a run of winnable games that can go a long way to seeing if they can stay in a tough title race.