Arsenal KPI Check: March 2024

Checking in on Arsenal again compared to preseason expectations

The schedule has been busy, both for the team and myself so I haven’t been able to check in on this as much as I would have liked. Lets fix this now by going through the performances compared to the expectations that I set at the start of the year.

Spoiler alert, it will look good.

For the items presented below the blue line is the average for each season, and the red line for the current season is what I set out as my goal for Arsenal’s performance in that metric to be a ‘success’ (the average of 1st/2nd place metrics) at the beginning of the season.

Points

Arsenal are on top of the table, tied with Liverpool but ahead on goal difference and goals scored. Arsenal are currently on an 87-point pace and are fully in the thick of the title race with things in their own hands.

✔️On this measure, Arsenal are right on the measure of what I set as the expectation. They should be very close and hopefully above 87 when the season is done.

Expected Goals

Arsenal's expected goals figures in the calendar year are exactly where I wanted to see them. The attack was a major concern at the start of the year but that has really melted away with the team creating a lot more good opportunities (finishing could still get better). The defense started well and has somehow gotten even better.

Overall the season numbers are still a bit behind the very high expectations but they are moving in the right direction as the business end of the season approaches. Right now Arsenal are at the level needed in attack and defense

↔️Arsenal’s expected goals results are overall for the season below the targets but the trend is positive with the team hitting them over the last 12-16 weeks. I am going to say this is a pass giving more weight to the current form.

Shots

Shots, like expected goals have been on a positive trend and have been great.

The team has done well at not allowing high volumes of shots there have been a few matches where the reason that the team has allowed shots is because the match was already over and the team was conserving energy. There is no concern about this right now.

↔️On this measure, things are a bit mixed. The target for shots allowed is pretty crazy but that is what happens when you are compared to some of the best teams in League history. I am going to say this is a pass as well but if you want to be harsh you could say it is only partial.

Deep Completions

This is the metric I am looking at and it is just ridiculous. I think this is a leading indicator for a team. Getting the ball into and keeping teams out of dangerous locations is one of the more important things I look at. When this is going well a team seems set for sustained success and that is exactly what Arsenal have delivered here.

↗️On this measure, Arsenal are exceeding expectations

Field Tilt

Arsenal is Field Tilt FC. It would be hard for a team to dominate the final third battle more than what Arsenal has done thus far.

↔️Overall Arsenal at my expectations

Overall

Arsenal are in the conversation for the best team in the world right now. They might not be the absolute favorite in every matchup but they would be close and be a tough matchup for anyone.

That might not turn into a trophy and that could be sad but it is hard to not look at this team and feel good.

Looking at them on the weighted xG and Goals for and against, Arsenal are up in the upper right corner (aka the good corner) for the Premier League so far this season.

Over the last 10 matches how stellar the team has performed is even more stark. They are out in a tier by themselves. They have a tough and full month but they are peaking at the right time and I have never felt more confident about how the team looks than I am right now. That might be dangerous but I can’t help it.