Thanks for a great article as always! Very small query - on the Brentford/Aston Villa graphic, it states that Villa are more likely to win (39% to 35%) but Brentford have a higher xPoints (1.5 to 1.3). Naively, I would have assumed that xPoints was calculated as xP = 3 * p(win) + p(draw), in which case Villa ought to have higher xPoints as well as the higher p(win). Is it possible the win percentages got swapped round by mistake in the graphic? Or are the xPoints calculated differently?
Thanks for a great article as always! Very small query - on the Brentford/Aston Villa graphic, it states that Villa are more likely to win (39% to 35%) but Brentford have a higher xPoints (1.5 to 1.3). Naively, I would have assumed that xPoints was calculated as xP = 3 * p(win) + p(draw), in which case Villa ought to have higher xPoints as well as the higher p(win). Is it possible the win percentages got swapped round by mistake in the graphic? Or are the xPoints calculated differently?