Discover more from Cannon Stats
Arsenal: KPI Final 2022-23 Edition
Starting some of the end of season items now, checking in on how Arsenal finished the season compared to the preseason expectations
Doing these posts are one of my favorites of the reoccurring type posts that I do. I think that they are really nice illustrations of where Arsenal are compared to expectations (SPOILER ALERT, VERY GOOD).
I didn’t think I sandbagged my expectations at the start of the year (I targeted average performance of a 3rd/4th place team!) but it really ends up looking that way with the performances of the team this season.
For the items presented below the blue line is the average for the season, the red line on the current season is what I set out as my goal for Arsenal’s season to be a success.
Crab Stats is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Arsenal spent most of the season on top of the table, with a disappointing finish to the season see them fall behind the historically great Arsenal teams of the past. They still ended up with one of the most successful season’s on a points accumulation basis in a long time.
Target: 72 points, actual points 84 points
↗️ On this measure, Arsenal are well above my expectations
Arsenal expected goals figures are very good. I set a target of 1.7 for this and basically all season Arsenal have not fallen below it. The attack was amazing and consistent this season and really drove the team forward
For the first half of the season, the defense was spectacular, matching the attack with consistently excellent performance. After the World Cup things turned for the worse before things really fell out after William Saliba got hurt. I was an apologist and downplayed how much we needed from the defense but when it was touching relegation level, that was even too much for me.
For the overall expected goals difference, it unsurprisingly tracks with the other two. When both were excellent the team played like a title challenging team, after the World Cup like a top-4 level team, and finally like a team that looked spent.
Non-penalty Expected Goals: Target 65, Actual 76.0
Non-penalty Expected Goals Against: Target 40, 43.0
Non-penalty Expected Goal Difference: Target +25, 33.0
↗️On this measure, Arsenal mostly above my expectations, with a slight miss on the expected goals against.
Open Play Shots
For shots, I kind of cheated when I set my expectations for the team, I generally looked at what a team did at 3rd/4th and set that as what I wanted, but with shots I set the bar quite a bit higher. Mostly because I like seeing my team take shots and score goals, but also because the team had already reached the level last season.
They ended up falling a bit short but almost got to where I would have like to have seen.
For shots against, given what the xG numbers showed you might have expected this to another area of concern but it wasn’t. What really hurt the defense was not the volume of shots, but rather that they went from about 1 good shooting opportunity against at the start of the year to 3-4 at the end.
For: Target 11.4 per match, actual 11.2 per match
Against: Target 6.8 per match, actual 6.3 per match
➡️On this measure, Arsenal are mixed but I will give them a, meets expectations grade.
Deep Completions For: Target 24.8 or better, Season: 28.0
Deep Completions Against: Target 14.4 or lower, Season: 12.9
Deep Completion Difference: Target 10.4 or better, Season: 15.1
↗️Overall Arsenal are well above expectations here.
Field Tilt: Target 62% or better, Season: 67.1%
↗️Overall Arsenal are well above expectations
Arsenal ended up looking like the solidily second-best team this season. They had the 2nd best attack and the 3rd best defense. The attacking metrics look very good, while on defense there is a glaring issue with the average shot quality allowed.
Looking at them on the weighted xG and Goals for and against, Arsenal are up in the upper right corner (aka the good corner) for the Premier League. Arsenal spent much of the season closer to City but fell back quite a bit with the end of season blip.
Overall this has been my favorite season following Arsenal (since 2011/12) and I am looking forward to what the summer brings to this team.