Arsenal: KPI October Edition

A little bit late on this but I think it will be worth the wait

I skipped doing one of these after September because there weren’t enough matches to warrant it, the same cannot be said for October (well and one November match).

Doing these posts are one of my favorites of the reoccurring type posts that I do. I think that they are really nice illustrations of where Arsenal are compared to expectations.

For the items presented below the blue line is the average for the season, the red line on the current season is what I set out as my goal for Arsenal’s season to be a success.

Points

Arsenal are top of the table, having won all but two matches, with just a draw and a loss to blemish an otherwise beautiful record. It would be an understatement only to say that they are beating the 1.9 points per match target that I set for them.

↗️ On this measure, Arsenal are well above my expectations

Expected Goals

Arsenal expected goals figures are very good. I set a target of 1.7 for this and after 13 matches Arsenal are at 2.03. For expected goals against I set a target of lower than 1.1 and Arsenal are at 0.9 allowed per match. For the overall expected goals difference, I set a target of 0.66, which again Arsenal are smashing with a +1.a xG difference right now.

↗️On this measure, Arsenal are well above my expectations

Shots

The open play shots story is roughly the same as xG (duh they are related), I set a target of 11.4 for this and they are at 11.8. For open play shots against I set a target of lower than 6.8 and Arsenal are at 5.5 allowed per match. For overall shot difference, I set a target of 4.6, which Arsenal are beating with a +6.3 open play shot difference right now.

↗️On this measure, Arsenal are well above my expectations

Deep Completions

Deep Completions For: Target 24.8 or better, Season: 26.5

Deep Completions Against: Target 14.4 or lower, Season: 11.9

Deep Completion Difference: Target 10.4 or better, Season: 14.6

↗️Overall Arsenal are well above expectations

Field Tilt

Field Tilt: Target 62% or better, Season: 70%

↗️Overall Arsenal are well above expectations

Overall

Arsenal are looking like one of the best teams in the League after the first quarter of the season. Their place at the top of the Premier League is not lucky or a fluke.

Looking at them on the weighted xG and Goals for and against, Arsenal are up in the upper right corner (aka the good corner) for the Premier League so far this season. The team has steadily climbed up the rankings with the results and are getting dangerously close to my internal title challenge goal of 25% title odds.