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Arsenal KPIs - April Edition
To revisit what these Key Performance Indicators (KPI) are, these are my goals for the team.
I think that they are pretty good and generally match the consensus expectations for Arsenal at the start of the season. For me, the goal was to get back into European football, with a finish that was 6th or better. I also wanted the performance to match the finishing spot, preferably with signs that the team would be making progress on their way to challenging to top four next season.
To help with this measure I have gone back and looked at how teams have performed over select metrics going back to the 2013-2014 season and used that to help set baselines for the performance levels that I want to see.
Arsenal are on 60 points with 33 matches played, that is 1.81 points per match. Extrapolated for the rest of the season that is 68.8 points which would be borderline 4th but almost certainly in the top 6.
My projection model has Arsenal on 69 points right now, which would put Arsenal well above the average point total needed for 6th or better (64 points). The simulation model gives Arsenal a 99% chance of finishing 6th or better right now.
On this measure, Arsenal are on track to exceed my expectations, with meeting them almost a certainty at this point.
Non-Penalty xG is moving in the right direction (and is currently outstanding).
The defense overall still isn't quite as good as you would hope for the full season but it has been much better over the last several weeks.
All three of Arsenal's expected goals based statistics are at or above the top 6 level for the season, with even better numbers over the last three months.
xG For: Target 1.54 or better, Season: 1.60, Last 10: 1.56
xG Against: Target 1.25 or better, Season: 1.19, Last 10: 0.86
xG Difference: Target 0.3 or better, Season: 0.41, Last 10: 0.69
On this measure, Arsenal are at the expectations for all three measures. Arsenal have also been playing at a very high level over the last three months which makes it look like beating the targets is possible.
Shots For: Target 10.5 or better, Season: 11.7, Last 10: 12.7
Shots Against: Target 8.2 or better, Season: 8.4, Last 10: 6.2
Shot Difference: Target 2.3 or better, Season: 3.5, Last 10: 6.8
Overall Arsenal are generally expectations or better. If the season ended today I think I would say that 8.4 is close enough to the target of 8.2 that I would rate it as a meeting expectation, especially considering the shot difference.
Deep Completions For: Target 20.5 or better, Season: 20.8, Last 10: 21.4
Deep Completions Against: Target 17.9 or better, Season: 15.2, Last 10: 11.1
Deep Completion Difference: Target 3.6 or better, Season: 5.7, Last 10: 10.3
Overall Arsenal are at expectations or better.
This is an area that makes me very happy. Arsenal are looking like a team that is finally applying constant pressure, especially against teams that they are "supposed" to beat, plus showing that they can do this against both other good teams and the tough midtable teams.
Field Tilt: Target 54% or better, Season: 57.9%, Last 10: 64%
Arsenal are above the expectations.
Over the last four plus months Arsenal have played really well and won, played pretty good and lost, and now have played pretty good and won. Sometimes that happens in soccer and thankfully for Arsenal, it has sort of evened out.
Arsenal are on the precipice of getting to a level that I don't think a rational fan (is that an oxymoron?) would have put that as the expectation at the start of the season and that is really exciting. Looking at the team's overall stats and the improvement over the season is clear.
The full season radars for Arsenal look good:
But what looks really good is how Arsenal have performed since the middle of December:
The team is playing well and has essentially guaranteed a successful season and have a very good chance of hitting a stretch goal.