Arsenal KPIs - March 2023 Edition
It has been a while since I posted one of these and the international break that ends the run of fixtures through March and leaves Arsenal with just 10 matches to play for this season.
To revisit what these Key Performance Indicators (KPI) are, these are my goals for the team. I set them at the beginning of the season and I don’t like to move the goal posts so I have not changed my definition of what I thought would be a success at the start of the year.
The long story short, is that Arsenal are killing it but it is still really nice to get confirmation about that in pretty graphical form.
Points
Arsenal are on 69 points with 28 matches played. This time last year they were on 54 points.
I targeted 72 points for Arsenal to make this season a success, that is one more win away and could happen as soon as April 1st after playing Leeds.
My projection model has Arsenal on 87 points right now, which would put Arsenal right on the cusp of what is needed for a title, with a return to the Champions League basically confirmed.
Target: 1.9 points per match
Actual: 2.5 points per match
↗️Exceeding target
Expected Goals
Non-Penalty xG is moving in the right direction (and is currently outstanding). Arsenal have been consistently excellent on this metric.
The defense overall is right on target but there has been a bit of a blip with Arsenal looking a bit more open than we would like to see. With a very difficult month of matches ahead getting back to a solid base will be key to accumulating the points needed to keep Manchester City in the rear view mirror.
On xG difference with the strong attack numbers making up for the weakness in defense, Arsenal are still well above my expectations but they have fallen a bit below the title-level performance. Hopefully this is a blip and not a new normal for the performance.
Non-Pen xG For: Target 1.72 or better, Season: 2.04
Non-Pen xG Against: Target 1.06 or better, Season: 1.08
Non-Pen xG Difference: Target 0.66 or better, Season: 0.96
↗️ Exceeding target
Open Play Shots
In the latter half of last season, Arsenal seemed to finally click on figuring out Mikel Arteta’s system. Since then, they have been remarkably consistent at creating a high volume of chances game after game.
The story on defense is roughly the same, with Arsenal really growing into an impressive shot-suppressing team. The team has seen the average quality of the shot go up recently but they are still doing a very good job of keeping opposing teams to under 7 open play shots per match.
Open Play Shots For: Target 11.4 or better, Actual: 12.0
Open Play Shots Against: Target 6.8 or better, Actual: 6.0
Open Play Shot Difference: Target 4.6 or better, Actual: 6.0
↗️ Exceeding target
Deep Completions
Last season Arsenal were just okay at getting the ball into dangerous locations. They had times where they did so at a level on par with a “top 4” team but it was still something that lagged and was not consistent.
This season, Arsenal get into the final third and then just over and over get the ball close to goal. The improvement here is very clear and is very impressive.
The story on defense isn’t as stark, but that is because that issue was mostly fixed at the end of last year with this team continuing to keep teams from getting close to Arsenal’s goal with much regularity.
Deep Completions For: Target 24.8 or better, Actual: 29.8
Deep Completions Against: Target 14.4 or better, Actual: 12.3
Deep Completion Difference: Target 10.4 or better, Actual: 17.5
↗️ Exceeding target
Field Tilt
Another area with continued improvement and very good consistency. Arsenal have had a larger share of the final third possession in 26 of their 28 matches, and they have had 55% of more in 24 of 28 matches.
Field Tilt: Target 62.5% or better, Actual: 69.7%
↗️ Exceeding target
Overall
Arsenal are at the top of the table and their performances are backing them up. They are probably the second-best team in the League but they are not far off Manchester City who look like they might be the best team in the World right now.
This team has already blown past my expectations for them and looks like they could go on to be one of the best Arsenal teams of all time.
The final 10 matches of the season are going to be nervy and very high stakes but Arsenal are in a strong position where they don’t have to be perfect to still come away with the big prize.
10 cup finals to go.