Arsenal-Leverkusen? Quick thoughts on the UEFA draws
Arsenal have avoided Real Madrid, and other big thoughts on this morning's action
The Piero Hincapié Derby is on! Arsenal drew Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 this morning, also being drawn into the blue path. That sets up a Champions League bracket that looks like this:
The draw is a massive win for Arsenal on paper, and while they will need to take care of business, they’re looking at a path to Budapest that could only include Barcelona in the semi final and any of Bayern, Manchester City, Real Madrid, Liverpool, PSG or Chelsea in the final itself.
The Leverkusen tie kicks off the week of March 9 in Leverkusen, Germany, sandwiched between an FA Cup visit to Mansfield and a home match with Everton the following weekend. The second leg, of course, will immediately precede the Carabao Cup final against Manchester City.
The matchup with Leverkusen is Arsenal’s first competitive fixture with them since 2002, when they won once and drew once against them in the second group stage of the Champions League. That Bayer side did top the group, though, and went on to lose to Zinedine Zidane and Real Madrid in the final.
(The two also met in the 2024 preseason, with Arsenal winning 4-1 - hence above screenshot).
Looking at this season, the matchup is one that certainly favors Arsenal. Kasper Hjulmand’s side are sixth in the Bundesliga, riding hot-and-cold form that’s seen them beat the likes of Manchester City in the Champions League or RB Leipzig away in domestic play, while also drawing at 14th-placed Borussia Monchengladbach and losing to mid-table clubs like FC Augsburg and Union Berlin away from home.
Leverkusen primarily line up in a 3-4-2-1, deploying two attacking midfielders/wingers behind a striker, most often Patrik Schick. Their primary creators are wingback Alex Grimaldo attacking wide from the left and Aleix Garcia, central midfielder with a nice knack for a final ball. Ernest Poku, the diminutive Dutch winger/AM formerly of AZ Alkmaar, has been a nice revelation in those number 10 roles and carries plenty of threat as well.
At the back, Leverkusen are still led by Edmond Tapsoba, whose own links to Arsenal go back five or six years. Tapsoba is a capable ball-player but can make mistakes in defense, and could be exploited by Arsenal’s attack. Robert Andrich, Granit Xhaka’s former double pivot partner, has also been primarily deployed as central centre-back, joining former Liverpool starlet Jarell Quansah. As we’ve seen before, if Leverkusen are to stun Arsenal, it’s most likely going to come down to Arsenal failures at the back or a superlative performance by that back three, or former Brentford keeper Mark Flekken.
As for the rounds beyond and their potential opponents, we can cross that bridge when we come to it. But one good thing worth reminding you of, dear reader: As top seed from league play, Arsenal have home second legs all the way through the semi final, which could be massive.
As we sit here, some other thoughts on the winners and losers of the draws today:
Winners
Barcelona
With their style, nothing’s certain, but Barcelona like Arsenal avoided a tougher path to the final than they could have had, getting the Spurs-Atleti matchup opposite their meeting with Newcastle. The Magpies, meanwhile, are in poor form and will likely be missing Bruno Guimarães for both legs. You may remember Barca winning 2-1 at St. James Park in September.
Bodø/Glimt
Kjetil Knutsen’s side are in the enviable position of playing with house money in the round of 16, and they’ve been drawn against Sporting, who will be feeling every drop of pressure there is to this tie. Sure, a potential clash with Arsenal awaits in the round of 8, but this club only scored its first goals of the Champions League this year, and now we’re talking about a winnable round of 16 tie.
John Textor
You love to see a good guy catch a break, don’t you? Textor’s Crystal Palace avoided the one draw I would’ve worried about, were I them, avoiding a potential round of eight matchup with BlueCo II - er, Strasbourg. Those two could now only meet in the final. Palace start off with Cypriot club AEK Larnaca (not to be confused with AEK Athens), with the winner of relegation battlers Fiorentina and Polish club Raków Częstochowa next up.
Meanwhile, Textor’s other club, Lyon, were drawn opposite both English clubs in the Europa League and given a path to the final that I think, having watched the league stage, could favor them. They’ll start with Celta Vigo, with the winner of Genk-Freiburg waiting in the next round.
Losers
Real Madrid
It has not been a season to remember in Madrid, and the draw has only made things harder. City are the early betting favorites for the round of 16, and even if Madrid got out of there alive, it’s likely Bayern Munich will be waiting for them. Personally, I think the road ends here for Álvaro Arbeloa’s guys, but let’s see.
Manchester City
Speaking of that matchup, City will very likely have two tough games with Real Madrid immediately after an FA Cup away game with Newcastle and between league matches with West Ham (away) and Crystal Palace (home). That sounds manageable enough, but a CL win would send them into a tie with Bayern Munich (or Atalanta, to be fair) which would include a second leg in Munich, if the Germans beat Atalanta. That second leg would fall on the week of April 13 … just before they host Arsenal in the league. The first leg, likely at home, would be the same week they visit Stamford Bridge. Time to flex your depth!
Aston Villa
Unai Emery is used to being in that sort of slightly-above-average tier of these competitions, where he seems to thrive, but Villa are to me the major favorite for the Europa League, and the draw only solidified that. Villa have Olivier Giroud’s Lille up first, but Les Dogues have been in entirely uninspiring form of late and would be a relatively inexcusable loss, should it go down that way. The reason I sort Villa into this column is that they’ve drawn the tougher run to the final, with Nottingham Forest and other clubs-that-looked-pretty-good-in-league-play Roma, Stuttgart, Porto and FC Midtjylland all on the same side of the bracket. Winnable for certain, but Emery will face pressure all the way - while also trying to stay in the title race!
Anyway, if you didn’t know it already, I friggin’ love UEFA competitions and draws. Only like six months to the next one!