Arsenal made the hard but correct choice with Granit Xhaka

I am very happy to see him find success with Bayer Leverkusen and this looks like a deal that worked out best for both sides

May 10, 2024

It is a bit of a slow news week for Arsenal. There was no Champions League fixture for them, and overall the team seems heads down preparing for the final two matches of the year.

This does mean that fans minds will start to wonder and one of the places it has landed on is Granit Xhaka, especially after he played an exceptional game to help Bayer Leverkusen extend their unbeaten season and go to the Europa League final in dramatic fashion.

This combined with little of note (beyond transfer speculation ramping up) for Arsenal has people thinking about what ifs.

I don’t like to do what ifs very much, especially when you are what if-ing nearly a full season and all of the downstream effects are totally unknown. I will still try to make the case that Arsenal made a good choice, and it looks like a decision that worked out for both clubs and the player.

The reporting initially when the move happened, was that Xhaka was the one that wanted to move on for a new challenge but in an interview with The Athletic it seemed to come more from Arsenal showing reluctance to further extend him at that time with a season (2024), plus an option year (2025) still going on the deal he signed in 2021.

I have seen some people use this as proof that Arsenal pushed him out but I think it is more of a prudent way of handling a player at 30 years old. This was a player that I think was comfortable at Arsenal and really wanted to, could have stayed, he had potentially two seasons left on a deal but to be fair to him, he was also looking at potentially his last big contract.

He was able to get that deal from Bayer Leverkusen who reportedly gave him a 5 year contract when he signed for them. Leverkusen also will have paid Arsenal a fee in the £20 million range (the bonuses with the winning they have done seem likely to hit).

Overall this looks like a win, win, win situation.

Arsenal were probably comfortable keeping the player but also wanted to get younger and look to improve in the position. Xhaka would have probably only have been around as major part of the squad for this season and after that it would have been less certain.

I think there is some rose tinted memories of Xhaka last year as well. He played well for Arsenal but was more above average everyday role player than superstar.

At the point Arsenal were needing to make a decision on him he was very much a positive asset. Having been with Arsenal 7 seasons his book value from his initial fee had worked down significantly so the chance to book a pretty significant profit from player trading was an enticing opportunity, especially considering that Arsenal wanted to spend big in the summer. Arsenal also by the end of the summer did seem like they were bumping up against the limits of what they could do while staying compliant with the profitability and sustainability rules.

If Arsenal don’t sell him, they are probably limited in the neighborhood of £40 million to £70 million in spending that they did this summer that wouldn’t happen or would have needed a different sale to happen.

At Leverkusen he has played excellent and from there perspective this was a slam dunk deal. He has adapted back to the Bundesliga well and the extra space to exploit his always present super power of passing has been excellent.

Looking at that it’s hard to not imagine that in the Arsenal team but how stats translate between league is always hard and the move from the Premier League to the Bundesliga is one where players statistical performance increases.

Overall, I think most of this is moot and the deal has worked out quite well for everyone involved. Granit Xhaka and Leverkusen are having an amazing season. Arsenal while not perfect have also done better without him than they did last season.

Compared to the same fixtures played Arsenal have more points: +2 (83 vs 81) better xG: +4.6 (72.4 vs 67.8) more goals: +5 (88 vs 83) better xG against: -12.8 (26.7 vs 39.5) better goals against: -12 (28 vs 40) stronger xG difference: +17.4 (+45.7 vs +28.3) and a much better goal difference: +17 (+60 vs +43).

At times like this I am often reminded of a quote the NFL’s 49ers legendary coach Bill Walsh, ‘It is better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.’

Arsenal made a hard choice with Xhaka but I think it was the correct one.