Arsenal need a midfielder. Who do the numbers like?

Diving into the data for a ball-carrying, progressive, secure midfielder.

Editor’s note: I was going through my list after publication and noticed I completely missed Amadou Onana. He should be one place ahead of Colpani, squarely in the top 25. I regret the error - more to come on him if Arsenal firms up its interest!

So…Šeško isn’t happening. Now, bring on the midfielders!

It doesn’t seem like Arsenal are particularly close to signing anyone yet this summer, but reports after the large Slovenian decided to extend with RB Leipzig seem to point toward the center of the park, and the opportunities right now seem…pretty wide open.

But what exactly do Arsenal need in a midfielder? Is it someone who creates like Martin Ødegaard, but on the other side? Is it a ball-carrying dynamo who can dribble a man while making a box-to-box carry, like Wenger used to stockpile? Is it another deep-lying midfielder more like Jorginho? Or is it a deep-lying midfielder more in the mold of a destroyer? Or, is the answer Arsenal should seek caught somewhere in between all of these, somehow simultaneously being all of them put together?

As we head into the 2024-2025, we know Ødegaard and Declan Rice will make up two-thirds of Arsenal’s midfield at all times. It seemed for a long time like Kai Havertz would be the other, but as the season came to a close we were most likely to see Thomas Partey there, with Declan Rice in a more advanced role than many had expected.

With Partey likely on his way out, Arsenal could move Rice into the 6 role where he made himself indispensable for West Ham and add another attack-minded midfielder. They can also go in a direction that creates more of a Rice-Jorginho dynamic, with the new guy playing as a nominal number 6 in possession while Rice covers more ground. Whether that guy defends like a number 6 will depend on the name on his shirt.

All of this makes it pretty hard to properly twist numbers into a formula ranking whom Arsenal should go for. In fact, my formula ended up focusing on a little bit of everything rather than really dialing in on ballcarrying, or creation, or defending. It’s a pretty all-around ranking.

So rather than looking at this list as a “best 8s” or “best holding midfielders” or even “best hybrids,” I’d encourage you to view it instead as a list of midfielders who’ve done the best job mixing in all the job entails, with a special nod to carrying and particularly directness as a ballcarrier.

But that’s enough chatter, right? Some disclaimers, which I always do:

• This list is created relying fully on statistics from this season. Players are rated using more than 50 distinct data points of varying weights.

• Minimum for inclusion was 900 league minutes, which is 10 full games, on the first cut. I did pare my list down from there to focus on players who started more games than not.

• I generally aimed toward pre-prime or early prime, so again you’ll find no 28+ players here.

• There’s a really wide variation in ideal roles in this list. I’ll call them out as we go.

• I always encourage a healthy dose of the eye test before forming a final opinion on any player, so consume responsibly.

• All scores are subject to an adjustment according to league strength, so you shouldn’t have to mentally raise or lower rankings to make it more “fair.”

Before we dig into which names are of interest, how about some Arsenal radars?

Ødegaard was simply unplayable from about November on. Despite that yucky narrative of him not being a “top creator” still following him at the outset of this season, Martin did a lot to dispel that in the campaign, consistently leading Arsenal in shots created, assists, expected assist and more. His passes into the penalty area number is particularly ridiculous. Whether you backed Ødegaard or Bukayo Saka for player of the season, you were right as far as I’m concerned.

What a season it was for Declan. You can see here he was absolutely tip-top as a progressor, both in terms of carrying and passing. That’s huge. He’s maybe not the vertical threat some fans would like at times, but he’s still high up for expected assists for a midfielder. A good chunk of that came on corners, but that’s part of his job, right? I do think there’s some more that Rice can do next season, but there’s very little to complain about here for Arsenal’s record signing.

OK, that’s our Gunners. Who else is of interest? Here’s my honorable mention: