As an Arsenal + Sporting fan, feel like I have a decent perspective to share here. The concerns are absolutely fair, particularly around his heading and build up play. Ball striking is Top 1% elite, and his insane hunger for goals will be noticeable from Day 1. He’s a menace that forces the backline to constantly think about his next move, which should help open up opportunities for the rest of the front 5. He’ll offer something completely different from Havertz, which I think will give us more flexibility depending on the opponent and game state. To me, he’s a 15-18 goal scorer in the Prem for probably the next 3 years, which I think is still a huge success at that price. Sesko’s ceiling is undoubtedly much higher but I can also see him floating around Serie A at UEL clubs for most of his career in like 50% of the scenarios. Gyokeres has been one of my favorite players on a team of mine ever. Arsenal fans are going to love him and his intensity, even if he never gets to Prem Golden Boot levels.
Thanks for the write up - all of the options this summer have warts, even Isak with the size of the deal required to get it done and injury history. I understand all the hesitations, but arsenals field tilt + Gyokeres ability to get off shots + his ability to finish above xg suggests to me this player will continue scoring goals at Arsenal. if he is merely at Kai's level but with a mirrored radar (90% percentile north/south as opposed to east/west on your template) than that will be a great addition to Arsenals striker 'room.'
great post Scott, but here's a question regarding 'league strength'
Do you think it's influence is more important for some positions than others ?
in that, a chance is a chance ? yes, you may get more chances in a lower league, but, the measure is what you do with that chance ? ( as your stats show VG does seem to shoot 'well' )
One of the doubts surrounding Saliba from playing in France, ( & VVD playing in Scotland ) was it's basically a 1 horse town, with little weekly competition.
You'd also like to think, playing with better players, albeit against better players, would negate the weak league argument ?
Underrated portion of this window - Berta drawing negotiating lines and moving decisively. Selling clubs are on alert for this window and future windows that we're not going back and forth indefinitely when we have options in the market. I cannot imagine it's a fun set of discussions at Leipzig today with ownership, supporters, and even others in the staff questioning what the club does now without an influx of expected revenue from Sesko's sale and missing out on Europe. Who else with deep pockets has a need...? RM, City, and PSG are set, United and Barcelone are both financial dumpster fires, Leipzig will avoid selling to Bayern Munich, Liverpool have dropped a small fortune between Wirtz and the new agreements for Salah and VVD. Chelsea for further chaos? When Arsenal move in the future at any position, other clubs are not going to want to face the fury Leipzig is about to endure.
These percentiles for non penalty goals (90th) and non penalty xG (80th) against strong opposition only look a lot better than I expected to be honest. That’s pretty encouraging? Goal probability in the 95th percentile there too.
why is sesko not agitating more for a transfer. he will miss out on europe this season and RBL may be in for more competition for european places next year. stuttgart and bremen are hot on their heels...
As an Arsenal + Sporting fan, feel like I have a decent perspective to share here. The concerns are absolutely fair, particularly around his heading and build up play. Ball striking is Top 1% elite, and his insane hunger for goals will be noticeable from Day 1. He’s a menace that forces the backline to constantly think about his next move, which should help open up opportunities for the rest of the front 5. He’ll offer something completely different from Havertz, which I think will give us more flexibility depending on the opponent and game state. To me, he’s a 15-18 goal scorer in the Prem for probably the next 3 years, which I think is still a huge success at that price. Sesko’s ceiling is undoubtedly much higher but I can also see him floating around Serie A at UEL clubs for most of his career in like 50% of the scenarios. Gyokeres has been one of my favorite players on a team of mine ever. Arsenal fans are going to love him and his intensity, even if he never gets to Prem Golden Boot levels.
Thanks for the write up - all of the options this summer have warts, even Isak with the size of the deal required to get it done and injury history. I understand all the hesitations, but arsenals field tilt + Gyokeres ability to get off shots + his ability to finish above xg suggests to me this player will continue scoring goals at Arsenal. if he is merely at Kai's level but with a mirrored radar (90% percentile north/south as opposed to east/west on your template) than that will be a great addition to Arsenals striker 'room.'
great post Scott, but here's a question regarding 'league strength'
Do you think it's influence is more important for some positions than others ?
in that, a chance is a chance ? yes, you may get more chances in a lower league, but, the measure is what you do with that chance ? ( as your stats show VG does seem to shoot 'well' )
One of the doubts surrounding Saliba from playing in France, ( & VVD playing in Scotland ) was it's basically a 1 horse town, with little weekly competition.
You'd also like to think, playing with better players, albeit against better players, would negate the weak league argument ?
Short answer, we don't know do we !!!!!
Underrated portion of this window - Berta drawing negotiating lines and moving decisively. Selling clubs are on alert for this window and future windows that we're not going back and forth indefinitely when we have options in the market. I cannot imagine it's a fun set of discussions at Leipzig today with ownership, supporters, and even others in the staff questioning what the club does now without an influx of expected revenue from Sesko's sale and missing out on Europe. Who else with deep pockets has a need...? RM, City, and PSG are set, United and Barcelone are both financial dumpster fires, Leipzig will avoid selling to Bayern Munich, Liverpool have dropped a small fortune between Wirtz and the new agreements for Salah and VVD. Chelsea for further chaos? When Arsenal move in the future at any position, other clubs are not going to want to face the fury Leipzig is about to endure.
These percentiles for non penalty goals (90th) and non penalty xG (80th) against strong opposition only look a lot better than I expected to be honest. That’s pretty encouraging? Goal probability in the 95th percentile there too.
I think this is about expectation.
For me Havertz was always going
to be number 1 unless you get Isaak or Osimhen. Very few players better.
Gyokeres is an alternate option for different games states, causing chaos and getting shot off hopefully when we need them.
I would imagine 8-12 PL goals and maybe 14-16 for Havertz if fit all season
I think Gyokeres will be Solanke/Watkins level which is a good back to Havertz
why is sesko not agitating more for a transfer. he will miss out on europe this season and RBL may be in for more competition for european places next year. stuttgart and bremen are hot on their heels...