Arsenal should stay away from Marcus Rashford

Some stat scouting of the Manchester United forward that has been linked with Arsenal

The transfer window hasn’t officially opened but the high-profile rumors have already kicked off.

The biggest one right now is the potential move for Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford.

I am taking this with a major grain of salt right now because the reporting is a bit light with it still mostly with the “in the know” types compared to some of the more plugged in Arsenal reporters. Here is the report from Football London that credits @AFCCAMDEN on Twitter as the main source:

[Mikel Arteta] has met with the Manchester United forward [Rashford], with the prospect of the 26-year-old moving to Emirates Stadium among the topics discussed. The account suggests there is interest from both sides but it "remains to be seen how willing United would be to sell" to Arsenal.

I don’t know for certain if Manchester United would sell to Arsenal but this does at least seem plausible as the reporting from Manchester United is that they are open to offers on basically every player in the squad as they look to tear down a disappointing team and rebuild again under the new controlling owners.

The rumors for Rashford don’t include a rumored fee but it would be a pretty safe assumption that it would require a fairly substantial sum for a transfer fee in the ballpark of £50 million. On top of that he makes a reported £325,000 a week on a contract that he signed just last year that takes him through 2028. The total investment into a Rashford deal would probably push £150 million with transfer fees, wages, agent commissions and potential bonuses.

That would be a massive bet for a team and it is one that I have a really hard time imagining actually looking like a good deal for a team that makes the move for him. Getting a 20 Goals + Assist player who plays wide is not a common thing (something Rashford has done 3 times in the Premier League) and his 0.55 career Goals + Assist are very good but I can’t help but have a nagging feeling that these numbers are incredibly flattering to the player, giving him a shine of a superstar that obscures the less pretty reality.

When you look at Rashford over multiple seasons, in what should be the beginning of his prime seasons as a wide attacker the picture that comes back looks like a good but not elite player.

The biggest flaw that I see from watching and looking that the stats is that Rashford looks like a streaky player and one where when he isn’t scoring goals, he is not adding value to his team.

When you look at his contributions this season they are incredibly hit and miss. There are some pretty high highs but quite a few lows. To illustrate this looking at my goal probability added metric for each match he played this season in the League you can see that pretty clearly.

It is perhaps an unfair comparison but I can’t help think of the consistent impact that a player like Bukayo Saka adds to Arsenal and see that a player like Rashford would frustrate me quite a bit.

Let’s get a bit more into the weeds with Rashford now.