Arsenal take a risk extending Takehiro Tomiyasu

When he is fit he is a valuable and versatile defender but is available enough? PLUS Raya goal analysis and odds

Feb 23, 2024

According to multiple reports Arsenal are set to sign Takehiro Tomiyasu to a new contract extending his stay at Arsenal. Even with his current injury situation, the reports are that the deal is done and nothing has changed for him it just needs to be announced.

I have had mixed feelings about Tomiyasu since he was signed, feeling that it was a bit underwhelming at first, but I have come to appreciate what he offers the team with versatility, excellent one-on-one defending, and solid technical ability with both feet.

The problem for Tomiyasu is not talent (although I do think he lacks the elite talent, he is good for the role he has with Arsenal) but rather availability. With Arsenal Tomiyasu has played just 2,976 League minutes, never playing more than 50% of the total available minutes.

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I think Arsenal have seen this as well, adding additional depth and more importantly more talent at the back, giving him a smaller role. He went from playing 85% of the minutes he was in the squad for his first year to 32% last season and 52% of the minutes this season.

Over his three seasons with Arsenal Tomiyasu has looked like a solidly above-average fullback.

He isn’t elite at anything but ends up looking like a well-rounded player overall. I think that would match my impression from watching him as well.

If he was available now he might have played given the other injuries to the backline but if Oleksandr Zinchenko, Ben White, and the wildcard Jurriën Timber were fit what would his minutes load look like?

I think it probably looks like what we have seen the last couple of years where he is a depth/matchup choice and when he is fit he plays 30-40% of the minutes. His ability to play both left and right (and theoretically center back, even if we have never really seen it with Arsenal) makes him more valuable than his pure numbers.

The big question is how much more valuable and does that outweigh the injury concerns?

I don’t know if I would have been knocking down his door to try and extend him. The numbers associated with the deal are important and they are at best murky. His salary is reportedly in the 2.8 - 3.2 million per season range right now and with a new deal could be potentially doubling (supposedly in the 100k per week range but YMMV).

I will say I think that feels a bit high and unless it is incentive-based with appearance bonuses, that doesn’t seem that great for the role at Arsenal. He is in the zone where a decision needs to be made, on sell, extend, or see out the contract and the hand dealt to Arsenal hasn’t been great to examine this.

My thought coming into the season was that the addition of Timber might mean the end of Tomiyasu at Arsenal but he got injured and the team didn’t get the season to see how that might play out. On top of that Tomiyasu has also spent much of the season injured making it hard to get further information on how would look as a true utility player backing up multiple spots.

If he had a rock-solid availability track record I would probably have a different tune but three seasons with him missing considerable time gives me pause. If I was the director of football I probably would have ridden the luck of just letting him see out the final year of his contract if the terms of an extension were not favorable and come back to things in January.

I don’t hate the idea of an extension but I think this is along the lines of some of the recent moves that Arsenal have made where the team is too willing to hope for a positive result with a friendly extension. Hopefully, the club is doing this with a better-informed view of the future injury situation and things will work towards their view.

Breakdown of the Goal vs Porto

I love a good breakdown of a single moment, especially one that had so many moments for it not to end up in a goal.

The play starts with Gabriel winning a duel on the right wing. Gonçalo Borges tries to knock it by him but Gabriel beats him to this ball down the line.

From here he recovers the ball and makes the easy pass to David Raya. The pass to him looks fine and he isn’t under especially high pressure but decides to play it first time clearing the ball rather than trying to keep possession.

This isn’t the worst decision with the game state but it is a bit unusual given his normal calmness and willingness to play the ball in these types of situations. I would have rather seen him play it but it’s fine I guess.

The problem here is that the pass is not good. It is hit low and can be intercepted in a dangerous spot.

The second ball falls to Stephen Eustáquio who plays it back to Pepê. He beats the combination of Odegaard and Jorginho trying to take it off of him before he loses it to Declan Rice. From there Rice tries to carry the ball out.

His touch lets him down and he overruns the ball, where it is taken off of him after his attempt to clear is blocked.

Wenderson Galeno recovers again in a dangerous location and Porto have a fresh chance to attack Arsenal.

He drives foward but Rice cuts him off and takes the ball off of him before he can get central or into a more dangerous location.

Galeno ends up aimlessly kicking the ball and Gabriel Martinelli comes up with the ball.

From here Martinelli recovers the ball and looks to quickly play the ball up the field.

Looking at this view I don’t think that is a particularly bad choice. Porto have 6 players forward here with Arsenal having three players near where this ball is headed. If this is able to be taken down by Odegaard or if he lets it past him that is a potential 3 on 3 type situation for Arsenal.

He doesn’t nail the pass and it is overhit for Odegaard and not quite aimed right if it is for Saka but the idea isn’t wrong. At worst the ball is out and away the goal and the defense has a chance to get back into shape with 45 seconds of the game left to play.

Otavio Ataide cuts out the pass and gets it back to Galeno who gets the ball in a not particularly dangerous spot but Arsenal look a bit disorganized.

He is able to carry the ball to just outside the box without any resistance, with neither White or Rice stepping out to challenge him even with Arsenal having plenty of numbers back.

He takes the shot and it is not particularly dangerous but he was unpressured so he does have the chance to hit it sweet and really whip it. I am not a goal keeping expert but I would guess that Raya’s positioning here is less than ideal. He looks maybe a yard too far forward like he is anticipating a ball to be played in front of him rather than a shot.

The shot ends up above him as he is at full stretch.

Where it ends up crossing the line looks really bad even though it continues at that angle hitting the bottom corner of the back of the net.

My post shot xG model rated this a 13% chance of turning into a goal. Opta’s model via FBref rated it as a 20% chance. With StatsBomb rating this as just a 5% shot for the placement on the goal.

There is a lot that happens in this short sequence and if any one thing doesn’t go this way Arsenal get away with a draw. I think looking back I am more frustrated that the 3 times that Arsenal had to really clear the ball or keep possession they failed. This looks like tired players making plays that if they are fresh they execute. This leads to a third wave of attack and a team that isn’t quite there to close down a not particularly dangerous shot that is hit well against a keeper that is out of position.

Raya should to do better here, and in the Premier League he had turned it around pretty well finally moving above his expected numbers. This one is not going to help his overall season stats.

The margins are fine at the top of the game and this one hurt. Hopefully it won’t haunt Arsenal like Aaron Ramsdale getting beaten from nearly the halfway line.