Arsenal target Eberechi Eze, better late than never

It's probably a year or two late and probably at too expensive of a price but it is finally nice to get a link to a fun player like this

One case to keep an eye on is Arsenal and Eberechi Eze. The 27-year-old is high among a number of options being considered as Mikel Arteta’s men seek a versatile attacker. Contact has yet to be made with Crystal Palace but serious consideration is being given to the idea at the Emirates Stadium. No other clubs have the same level of interest at present and Eze is not a player Tottenham Hotspur have targeted to date. The England forward has a release clause in his contract worth in excess of £60million but, should they proceed, Arsenal would try to do a deal below that price. It is unclear whether a sale might be needed to facilitate such a move, but this situation is separate to their pursuit of a striker and left-winger.

This was from the June 30th edition of The Athletic’s Transfer DealSheet from David Ornstein and it was quite an exciting one to have dropped on top of us. The big part of this and what really changes the potential for this move was the last line, “this situation is separate to their pursuit of a striker and left-winger.” If this is in addition to, rather than in place of some other move the club is making it is a real change of course for Arsenal.

Eze is a player that is a bit of a throwback to a player that we would go after under the Arsene Wenger Arsenal, not to mention that he spent time with the Arsenal youth setup.

Does he have a nailed-on position? Not really, he’s a bit of a tweener between a midfielder, winger, and striker.

Does he fully fit with the type of player that Areta has targeted for that advanced midfield role? Again, not particularly, with him favoring the more off ball second striker types in Kai Havertz and Mikel Merino, before potentially grooming Declan Rice for that spot.

Is he exciting and just a baller that I am prepared to sort of just forget all of that and hope that you can just figure it out along the way? Oh yes, I am.

The numbers

The stats last season show for me a player that was highly involved in the attacking actions for the team and that was good but not quite elite.

One of the fun things about Eze is he seems to follow a mindset of you can just try stuff on a football pitch. That leads to some really cool stuff that you just don’t see as often these days but it is also a bit of a red flag in that his shooting numbers are reflection of not great shot decisions.

There are a lot of low value shots here and many of those are taken in situations where there are a number of bodies in the way, this led to him only being able to put 27 on target and had 41 blocked by defenders.

Compared to his peers the shooting numbers are a mixed bag, he has a good volume of shots, and it produces good xG volume and goal counts. It comes with just an okay average shot quality and bad value added from the shooting (all the blocked shots are the major culprit here).

Some of this is down to him being THE GUY for Crystal Palace and needing to make things happen but it’s still a bit concerning and something to note.

Switching to a bit more of a positive for Eze, is that the year prior, where he was more of the secondary option to Michael Olise at Crystal Palace he really excelled.

This would really be the hope for what could be possible with a move to Arsenal in my opinion. He looks like he fits to profile of an excellent second or third attacking option, able to take advantage of space created with the focus on others.

His shot chart last season still showed a player that wasn’t afraid to let things fly from lots of locations but significantly less shots that were through traffic and getting blocked at just 34% compared to 41% this last season.

Eze for his career has really blossomed over the last two seasons after hinting at big things in the 22/23 season. His best statistical season was the one with Olise looking like he was a borderline star caliber player but he still held his own last season rating out as a player of Champions League caliber.

I think that best case he gains back a bit more of that star potential with a move to Arsenal but I think we would all be pretty happy if he continued at roughly the same production after a switch with a gentle decline into his early 30’s.

Here are the individual stats broken down by area:

I have my projection system and it’s a fun sort of tool but not overly serious, it is a nice one for setting a bit of a baseline for expectations on what might be expected for next season.

One of the things that should be noted here is that this does not take into account movement between teams and that can be a large effect on a player’s numbers.

Overall, this looks good! I would be very content if this was what Arsenal would be able to get from Eze and there would be upside that more was possible from him.

Fit at Arsenal

At Crystal Palace they played primarily a 3-4-2-1 formation last season, playing the majority of the time behind the striker as a left 10.

The season prior he again played all over the attacking part of the field for Crystal Palace, but was primarily through the middle as an attacking midfielder or central midfielder.

The way that I would imagine this working is that he would primarily play through the middle with Arsenal but offer support in other positions as well. In a way it fits with many of the moves that Arsenal have done recently with players showing versatility and the ability to play in multiple spots giving extra flexibility into the roster.

Looking at him compared to a number of the Arsenal players he seems to be a solid compliment and potential rotation option with all of them.

Compared to Odegaard, he plays in a different way but I can still imagine that this is a bit of insurance if Odegaard is still struggling with his ankle or form like he was for long stretches last season. This is also an area where the team had a major single point of failure where there wasn’t really a good senior option if Odegaard wasn’t able to go.

Eze on the wing is also a real possibility. Ornstein did say that this wasn’t in place of a winger that could be brought in but given his experience playing wide, it is a real possibility that he could play there even if that would not be his first-choice position.

The main position that I would imagine Eze playing would be in the left midfield position that Declan Rice has taken up. This would free Arsenal to have a player for those tricky matches where the team needs to unlock a deep block or they are chasing a game and give Rice the option to push further back and cleanup things as a defensive midfielder.

When I look at the squad, Leandro Trossard is probably the one that he seems to be the replacement for and where he takes minutes. This could also be a signal that maybe a player like Trossard could be on the way out at Arsenal. When I look at their stats they look incredibly close to each other, and they pop up again when you do a search on players based on playing at the same age with his season before his move to Arsenal.

Final thoughts

Like basically every deal, the key here is at what price does this get done at to be able to say with more confidence if it is a good or just okay deal.

Looking at the numbers, watching him from just being a major observer of the Premier League and the versatility the player brings the fit in the squad makes a ton of sense to me.

His release clause is £60m + £8m in bonuses, this seems like it is a bit on the high side for me given his age. Trying to use the public valuation tools is a fun game and they are still surprisingly valid for what clubs look at (a bit scary to say) and they would have him at a lower price as well.

• Transfermarkt put him at €55m, that would be £48m

• Sofascore value him at €58m, that would be £50m

• Transfer Room’s model would say that he is between €40m and €50m, which would be £35m to £43m

• My friends at Gemini Sports gave me their estimate and it Eze should cost €43m/£37m and their estimate of what he will cost at €55m/£48m.

Looking at the similar player comps and the estimates again from Transfermarkt would put him closer to €33m/£29m, given that he is English plus it is a between Premier League clubs deal this is probably on the low end for things.

I would look at the Trossard deal again as a bit of a baseline starting point, that deal was in retrospect a bargain at £20m + £7m and given what I just mentioned above with the English + Premier League going a bit more wouldn’t be unexpected.

Overall, I think my target range for a deal like this would be a 4+1 contract at a solid rotation level wage say £150-175k a week for the base. Ideally the transfer fee would be in a similar range as the contract and would be £40m-£45m. For this deal given Arsenal are close to winning the big things, you might even be willing to push things a bit further out to make the deal happen.

What are your thoughts on the player? Do you like him as a fit? Let me know in the comments.