Arsenal vs Aston Villa: The Debrief
Ending 2025 with a great performance and some sweet revenge
What a game.
No more preamble here today because there is too much good analysis to get into here. I really really really enjoyed this match.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa: The Graphics
Arsenal vs Aston Villa: The Debrief
22 - Shots for Arsenal, this is the third match in a row where Arsenal have taken 20 or more shots
7 - Shots on target for Arsenal, this is the third match in a row where they have put at least 6 on target
3.6 - Expected goals for Arsenal, this is the third match in a row where Arsenal have produced at least 2.7 expected goals
6 - Big chances for Arsenal, this is the third match in a row where Arsenal have had at least 4 big chances in a match
There are few better feelings when you are doing analysis, and you see lots of people freaking out and you can calmly point out in the data that the world is not falling down (and hopefully help some people that were feeling anxious).
It doesn’t always work out quite this perfectly, but with Arsenal having just gone through a cold finishing run where they produced good numbers but with some weirdness, good goalkeeping, and own goals being scored didn’t turn that into actual goals scored by their own players.
Everything in the data was pointing in the direction that this was not something that should be causing worry but that doesn’t stop Arsenal fans (which I totally understand with the pressure of a title race). It wasn’t just that this was not something to worry about but rather that this was a positive signal for Arsenal that they were coming out of their attacking injury crisis and starting to generate the volume of good chances that you want to see.
If Arsenal just kept doing what they were doing the goals were going to come and come they did here with Arsenal putting four past a team that has grown into a bit of a rival and thorn in our sides.
Arsenal’s commitment to pressing pays dividends
15 - High starts for Arsenal in this match
59.8 - Average possession starting position for Arsenal in this match
38 - Final third pass attempts by Aston Villa up to the 78th minute, they had 25 in the final period after Arsenal had scored their 4th
0.98 - Aston Villa’s pass efficiency in their own half up to the 78th minute.
I am by no stretch of the imagination a tactics person but from what I have read and seen about Aston Villa, that while they are comfortable being out of possession they will still play out from the back and look to use their quick combinations to move the ball up the field in create opportunities.
I think that you can try to counter this by dropping off quickly and limiting the space that they want to attack or you have to really commit to the press and force them to make mistake or to slow down and work to get the ball up the field.
The first half for Arsenal saw them look to press high up the field but things were not quite 100% perfect. Aston Villa were able to work the ball through the press and created a few dangerous moments, including a very good shot in the 18th minute for Ollie Watkins and a few Amadou Onana runs through midfield.
As the first half went on Arsenal were able to establish a bit more control and that continued on into the second half. This also was a good illustration that having control and dictating a match doesn’t always have to mean having the ball and I think we got to see a bit of both of that in this match.
Arsenal had more of the ball as we got into the later parts of the first half and used that to grab more territory. After the opening goal the possession switched towards Aston Villa but Arsenal’s defensive shape and pressing kept them pinned in where they could not threaten Arsenal’s goal.
Onana coming off at halftime was a big blow to Aston Villa but there is a lot of credit that should go to Arsenal and Mikel Arteta who got the team set up well to nullify what Aston Villa wanted to do and it paid dividends. From the 26th minute where Onana got treatment and there was a break where Arteta was able to talk with his players to the 4th goal it was all Arsenal.
9 shots to 2
2.2 xG to 0.1
4 big chances to 0
99 final third touches to 38
22 touches in the box to 6
For all of the talk about one of these managers being the master at in game adjustments, it looked like this time it wasn’t Emery, and it was instead Arteta who was able to make a change that made the difference.
Odegaard continues to shine
50 - Pass Attempts (1st on Arsenal), 42 passes completed for 84.0% pass completion percentage with a 110.9% pass efficiency compared to expected passing
7 - Progressive Passes (1st on Arsenal)
3 - Key Passes
0.56 - xA
5 - Shots (1st on Arsenal), 2 on target for 0.32 expected goals.
1 - Dribbles Completed out of 1 attempted, plus 1 times fouled.
6 - Progressive Carries
3 - Carry into Final Third
3 - Progressive Passes Received
5 - Final Third Entry Pass Received
6 - Touches in the box
2 - Tackles with 3 attempts plus 3 fouls committed
2 - Interceptions
6 - Ball Recoveries (1st on Arsenal)
0.93 - Goal Probability Added (1st on Arsenal)
There has been a lot of talk about him in the lead to when he was coming back from injury and in the matches just after his return; has the club evolved past him? is he redundant in the midfield? can he produce enough in the final third compared to other options?
His performances the last few matches have gone a long way towards answering these questions.
Leo Trossard keeps making me eat the humble pie
34 - Pass Attempts (6th on Arsenal), 29 passes completed for 85.3% pass completion percentage with a 115.5% pass efficiency compared to expected passing
4 - Progressive Passes
4 - Box Entry Pass
2 - Key Passes
4 - Shots (2nd on Arsenal), 2 on target for 0.61 expected goals.
11 - Progressive Carries
5 - Progressive Passes Received
12 - Final Third Entry Pass Received
7 - Deep Touches
2 - Tackles plus 3 fouls committed
2 - Ball Recoveries
2 - Clearances
0.80 - Goal Probability Added
I tooted my own horn a bit above and I have to raise my hand with Trossard here and say I didn’t see this coming. My summer thoughts that he could be or should be looked to be moved on or at the least should not have had his contract improved looks silly.
Trying to make the connection that he is getting paid more is what led to this is tough; it also goes against the whole contract year type stuff where after getting paid players do worse, but he also didn’t get extra years so maybe that cancels it out? I don’t know but man I am glad that he is here right now and playing at a ridiculously high level.
Arsenal targeted the Aston Villa right side with Matty Cash out and they found a ton of joy going down this side, with Trossard putting together an excellent performance.
The goal that he scores in this match is so well taken and it really helps his reputation as one of the best finishers in this squad. The way that he bends it around the defender but also uses him to shield it from Emi Martinez is just perfect. It is not the most ridiculous skill you’ll ever see but it is executed perfectly.
It is similar on the assist for Jesus; that’s not the hardest pass you’ll ever see but he has the timing just right on the break and puts it in the spot where Jesus doesn’t need to think and can just let instinct take over.
Arsenal have an embarrassment of riches for the left-wing option and right now there is just little debate on who on merit is deserving of playing these matches, with everyone else left to fight over given Leo a breather.
Is Viktor Gyökeres making an impact even without scoring?
5 - Pass Attempts (13th on Arsenal), 3 passes completed for 60.0% pass completion percentage with a 73.4% pass efficiency compared to expected passing
3 - Shots (3rd on Arsenal), 0 on target for 0.37 expected goals.
0 - Dribbles Completed out of 2 attempted, plus 1 times fouled.
9 - Passes Received
5 - Progressive Passes Received
3 - Final Third Entry Pass Received
3 - Pass in the box Received
4 - Touches in the box
1 - Dispossessed
1 - Miscontrolled Passes
0 - Tackles
2 - Fouls
0 - Interceptions
-0.11 - Goal Probability Added
Arsenal’s striker signing this summer was always going to be a player that got a lot of scrutiny. There were lots of options and there weren’t many that were slam dunk, can’t miss types of players out there.
We have now hit the midway mark of the season, and we are getting to the point where the sample size is large enough to have some first real takeaways from his time at Arsenal.
So far it’s been not going perfect, to say things nicely.
This something Adam and I talked about on the last podcast but compared to expectations, even tempered ones that heavily discounted his play in Portugal, he has not been at the level that you would have hoped he could be at.
Here is my weekly update for him looking at the shot and goal production:
The shot numbers are picking up a bit, the expected goals aren’t that far off but overall, it’s just been below what you would want to see from a low touch player whose main value is supposed to be what he does inside of the box.
The shooting locations have been good, the volume of shots (which was supposed to be a plus) and the finishing/execution have been lacking.
There are some caveats here that can help him, he did have an injury that came at an inopportune time to where he was starting to round into some form and perhaps that is coming back now after he has put up back-to-back 3 shot matches.
One of the things that has also circulated that looks to show his impact is that with him in the team, Arsenal have played better than they have without him in the team.
The with and without stats can be tough for soccer because this is such a low scoring sport and the number of combinations are smaller than in other sports but I do like to look at these numbers. I take them with a grain of salt, especially for players with lots of minutes or very few minutes.
In this match I thought it was an improvement on his previous outings. The runs to my untrained eye looked better and less like he was hiding. It also wasn’t perfect and his ability to hold up play or be a participant outside of the box is still a weakness.
His weaknesses so far don’t look to have manifested into Arsenal looking like they are playing significantly worse without him, but that can also be a reflection that for this season there has not been another real viable option at striker. This will be something that we continue to watch.