Arsenal vs Chelsea: The Debrief

Arsenal beat Chelsea again and that's never not a good thing

Before we get too far into breaking down the Chelsea match, I want to wish everyone a wonderful St. Totteringham’s Day. From what I have seen this is the earliest that this has ever come in a season. It feels like a bit of small potatoes in the grand scheme of the season, but it is still important to find joy in the little things that life presents us.

Now let’s get into this match. It is a tough one to break down, like the North London Derby that preceded it, this is a match that has some deep dislike and hatred that goes with it.

For myself, being a fan over 5,000 miles away, I have always had more hatred for Chelsea. They are the club that through their unprecedented spending usurped Arsenal in the pecking order of the Premier League. They also had put Arsenal into a bit of a little brother type of position, beating Arsenal over and over, but even more than just that, doing so in a way that felt a bit humiliating. I hate them.

From the start of 2004 through Mikel Arteta taking charge of Arsenal, the outcome of this derby was incredibly one-sided. Arsenal had won just 9 out of 37 played, and they were outscored by 20 goals in that stretch.

Since then, the dynamic has shifted dramatically towards Arsenal. Since 2019, Arsenal have now won 11 of the 17 played, losing just twice while outscoring them by 17 goals. We have now gone 11 straight against them and not lost winning 8.

There are things to pick out this match to analyze but let’s not let the big picture get lost here that beating Chelsea always feels really great.

Arsenal vs Chelsea: The Graphics

Arsenal vs Chelsea: The Debrief

12 - Shots from Arsenal in this match. 8 in the first half and 11 of them in the first 70 minutes of the match.

1.3 - Expected goals, with just 0.4 coming from open play.

4 - Touches in “Zone 14”

0 - Box entries from “Zone 14” and just 2, from the dangerous areas centrally just outside the penalty box.

46 - Passes completed in the final third from open play.

0 - Shots from high possessions won, 12 total chances.

This match felt a bit like a throwback to Arsenal doing about 90% of what you want in attack well but they lacked the most important execution that turns dangerous moments into actual passes completed into the box or shots at goal.

The attacking numbers in this match aren’t bad, but they were not up to what you would expect from Arsenal either. Arsenal struggled to get the ball into central locations and with the few opportunities that they did have, they didn’t turn that into shots.

I think that this is especially true of the first half. Arsenal started off brightly but didn’t quite do enough to turn opportunities into shots, and shots into goals. Arsenal did get a goal, but the way that they played very well could have or maybe even should have produced 1 or 2 more to match the dominance in the match.

Late, this game fizzled out and we will talk more about that later in depth.

I come away from this match mostly positive because even though I want more, I do recognize that this should be one of the harder matches remaining in this season. Chelsea are a weird team but that doesn’t mean that they are a push over at all.

I think that you can make a pretty strong case that for the totality of the season that they might be the third best team in the League. Looking at what they have done when they haven’t picked up a red card (red cards are a bit random but it does seem like most of the ones Chelsea have gotten are well earned and a reflection of the team) they rank as not far off Arsenal and slightly better than Manchester City.

This is an expensively acquired team, and it is full of talent, especially in attack and midfield (that’s where the resale value is). It doesn’t always work as a cohesive team but there is no denying that at least on an individual basis the talent here.

In this match, Arsenal basically shut them down. Here is what they did attacking compared to their average numbers this season.

There is just nothing here that they did better than average and most of these are on closer to their worst than they are to average.

Having a player less matters for this but even in this match, it wasn’t like before that they were playing so well that the red card derailed them. In fact, they almost caused Arsenal more problems down a man and that gives us a good transition into the next section.

Arsenal lose control once again

From the 86th minute to the end of the match:

14 - Passes Attempted by Arsenal, compared to 63 for Chelsea

8 - Passes completed by Arsenal, compared to 54 for Chelsea

57.1% - Arsenal’s pass completion percentage

0 - Final third passes attempted, compared to 20 for Chelsea

50% - The percentage of Arsenal’s passes attempted that were long

1 - Possession sequence that had 3 or more passes (it was 5 passes long and it was in the 94th minute)

Seeing out the game against Chelsea, Arsenal were decidedly less capable of holding on to the ball. Some of that was that they didn’t really make an attempt to do it and some of it was that they looked like they were feeling the pressure and just want to have a momentary break by just getting the ball away from present potential danger.

This is becoming a bit of a worrying trend for me, and it is something that has popped up a bit more in recent matches. Here is what Jurrien Timber said after the match that matches how I saw it:

We stopped playing a bit [against Chelsea], which was unnecessary - especially with a man up. It's something we need to work on, talk about as well. It happened a couple of times this season already.

We put so much effort into the game, especially in the first half, and you have to go up 1-0 or 2-0, but these things happen - especially against a good team like Chelsea.

It’s part of the game, you have to understand what happens in the moment. The energy within the players and the crowd, the anxiety. It’s something we need to address and talk about.

With the cold rational, less being on the edge of my seat, clear headed view the final minutes were not as bad as they felt at the time. That also doesn’t mean that I think that it was good, just less bad. I have higher expectations of what I think that this team should be capable of doing in these situations and I can’t help but feel like this is a bit of tempting fate.

There was something that was said on the Double Pivot podcast and I think it makes a good point. We have come to expect that good teams, and especially teams that win the League play in a certain way. Arsenal have mostly fit the mold of these teams, but they have one crucial departure and that is that they are incredibly comfortable playing defense off of the ball.

When you look back at what Chelsea actually did in this period, it’s not much.

They had a single shot (Caicedo) and dangerous cross that was well delivered into the zone of uncertainty. The cross was the most dangerous moment but saw Arsenal execute like you’d expect from the best defense in the League. The cross was well defended by Gabriel to not let João Pedro make a play on the ball and it did force Raya to push it away dramatically, after he held his position reading the play, reacting late to the ball.

I am not sure that it is inherently riskier to trust your defense to see you through and to execute than it would be to try and hold on to the ball while the other team presses to take it off of you. If you are trying to keep the ball and fail to execute that can open up a team to a potentially good scoring opportunity as well.

It might be something that is rarer, but leads to a bigger chance compared to the defending choice but it certainly has a different feel to it. With Arsenal having been burnt by late goals, we as fans have that in the back of our minds as the time ticks away.

Arsenal under Arteta have been a team that controls a game, even against top opposition. That didn’t always mean that they had all of the possession but even when out of possession it felt like it would more often be Arsenal dictating where the game would be played. This is hard to fully quantify but right now that really seems like a much harder task for Arsenal than it had been previously.

One of the changes is that in midfield Arsenal have a new player and he’s playing in a different way.

Zubimendi Struggles

27 - Pass Attempts (6th on Arsenal), 21 passes completed for 77.8% pass completion percentage with a 97.2% pass efficiency compared to expected passing

4 - Final 3rd Entry Passes

3 - Progressive Passes

2 - Box Entry Pass

3 - Deep Completions (not Cross)

1 - Shot, 0 on target for 0.06 expected goals.

0 - Dribbles Completed out of 0 attempted, plus 0 times fouled.

31 - Progressive Carry Distance in yards

1 - Progressive Carry

0 - Carry into Final Third

3 - Tackles with 0 times dribbled past and 1 foul committed

0 - Interceptions or blocked passes

2 - Ball Recoveries

Martin Zubimendi has had a good first year for Arsenal and has been one of the signings this summer to make the biggest impact on the team. I think that he has adapted well to a new League and has been a major factor for Arsenal leading the Premier League while also being the current favorite in the other three competitions that they are in.

I do think that there is a bit of a potential correlation that this is also the season where Arsenal have less control, especially in pivotal high-pressure situations than they had in season’s past. Zubimendi may play the same position as Jorginho and Thomas Partey but he does it in a different style and I think that is apparent in matches like this.

After the red card, Zubimendi had just 7 passes total (completing all 7). It is great that he completed all the passes that he completed but this felt like a situation that was calling out for someone who be in the situation to receive all over and strangle the game taking the sting and hope out of Chelsea.

Maybe we need to recalibrate what we expect from this player and Arsenal in these situations?