Arsenal vs Everton: The Debrief

Deja vu all over again

When I sat down to start writing this I felt like for much of it, I could probably just copy and paste what I did for the match against Fulham.

The result and the mood feel very similar.

Arsenal were the better team, they had chances to score but missed them and at the back they gave up nothing. It ended in a dispiriting draw and a missed opportunity to close the gap on Liverpool using up more of the limited margin for error the team has left this season.

In the end, this is its own little special nugget of a game so it will get its own breakdown so if you can stomach it, lets get into it.

Arsenal vs Everton: The Graphics

Arsenal vs Everton: The Debrief

An attack that is struggling for ideas

48 - Touches in the box for Arsenal, to just 8 for Everton

295 - Touches in the final third for Arsenal, to just 54 for Everton

When you look at the territory for this match, it is a situation where everything points Arsenal. This was an example of dominance of field tilt, of keeping a team pinned back. There were just no real prolonged stretches that Everton were able to threaten Arsenal’s goal here.

The problem for Arsenal is that this territorial dominance didn’t turn into consistent threat on the Everton goal.

13 - Shots for Arsenal, 5 on target, 1.3 expected goals

1 - Big chance

6 - Shots in the second half

0 - Big chances in the second half

Arsenal did force Jordan Pickford into making saves here but it wasn’t the type of performance from him where he was called upon to be superman to keep his team in the game.

For this match it was a game where it felt like the team was struggling with ideas. Overall, the team showed balance with how they attacked between left and right but it was a day where the middle was very tough to access and going wide played into the hands of the Everton defense

Looking at the passes that Arsenal had in the final third you can pretty clearly see that Everton were set up to not give access into the dangerous areas around the edge of the box. I think frustratingly, Arsenal didn’t even really seem to try to find passes in these areas often enough.

Arsenal did end up with 106 passes in the areas just in front of the box, but just 18 of them from these zones were not sideways or out to the flanks.

When funneled wide it was often a hit and hope cross situation and one where it didn’t lead to any dangerous chances for Arsenal and they were handled quite well. Everton made 38 clearances in this match, with each center back at 7 a piece and none felt overly under pressure.

Everton did play a nasty block in this match, often having 9 and 10 men behind the ball and waiting until the ball got into their own half to engage Arsenal. That makes it hard to generate attack (that’s why teams use the tactic) but it is something you hope a club like Arsenal where this isn’t a new problem would have better ideas about how to break it down.

In the end, Arsenal just didn’t have the attacking day that they would want or expect. Looking at this match compared to what they have done this season it is squarely on the below average side nearly across the board here.

From the Everton side, they probably look at this again as a positive performance defensively, holding close to their average numbers this season in what could have been a tough fixture for them on paper.

It still probably should have been enough

"Well, I feel very disappointed not to win the game because obviously there is a team that deserves to win. There is only one, which is Arsenal.

We gave nothing away. No shots conceded, we dominated the direct play, didn't allow them to run, no set-pieces. Our high press was excellent. We generated the chances but the last 20 meters was missing to score goals.

At the end, you have to try to generate the highest winning probability. When you draw the game you want more. Even if we win it we always want more, but I cannot ask much more from the boys apart from putting the ball in the net."

This was the quotes from Mikel Arteta after the match and people aren’t going to love the comments but he is basically correct.

This is something that I looked up last week and it made me want to go a bit deeper on it as well for how Arsenal perform in these types of matches.

Over the last three seasons Arsenal have had 44 matches where they had a +1 or larger xG difference than their opponent (it was plus 1.2 here) in those matches Arsenal have won 39, drawn 4, and lost 1.

In matches where it is +1.5 or larger difference than their opponent in those matches Arsenal have won 32, drawn 2, and lost 0.

In matches where it is +1.8 or larger difference than their opponent in those matches Arsenal have won 25, drawn 1, and lost 0.

The results in these matches compare favorably beating the averages and doing better than similar teams like Liverpool and Manchester City both for the number of matches and converting them into wins.

This match very well could and maybe should have gone the same way but the bounces didn’t go Arsenal’s way and it ends up a frustrating day out.

I find my self frustrated with this team, I know it is good. I think it has even improved on last season, it just looks like things are going to end up where Arsenal aren’t getting the needed breaks to push into the right tail of the possible outcomes.

I wrote this a few weeks back and it remains my view of the team:

I understand that people might not be as positive as I am right now but hopefully the team can show their true level enough this season to bring back the hope and not get sucked into the negative spiral.