I don’t think we need a ton of preamble today. We are not short of topics after a long international break. Let’s get straight into it.
Arsenal vs Leeds: The Graphics
Arsenal vs Leeds: The Debrief
The first 60 minutes were not good
All stats here are for the opening 60 minutes
5 - Shots for Arsenal, compared with 10 for Leeds
0.12 - Expected goals for Arsenal, compared with 0.63 for Leeds
14 - Progressive passes completed for Arsenal, compared with 12 for Leeds
18 - Touches in the box for Arsenal, compared with 11 for Leeds
159 - Touches in the box for Arsenal, compared with 71 for Leeds
The early match on a Saturday can sometimes take a while to kick into gear, especially when it is the first one after an international break. Arsenal against Leeds really took that and exaggerated it.
The majority of the stats would have said that Arsenal were playing pretty well in the match to start it out, they had more of the ball, they had more of the territory, they were winning the duels. Except they were really struggling to turn any of that into anything of note.
There were flashes of competency but the team just could not put together any sustained pressure or build up the head of steam where it felt like a goal was an inevitable outcome.
Thankfully Arsenal didn’t get the full punishment and were able to find that higher gear but it should be a warning that their are no easy games in this league and you can’t expect teams to just roll over for you.
The goal scored by Leeds and then the subs changed the game for Arsenal and they come away looking fairly solid winners but if the team is capable of this, they need to show it more consistently and not need to end up down a goal before they turn it on and start playing.
Bruno Guimarães shines off the bench to power Arsenal to a win
1 - Shot, 1 goal. Off of a 0.11 expected goals chance.
21 - Pass attempts, 20 passes completed for 95.2% pass completion percentage with a 115.2% pass efficiency compared to expected passing
4 - Progressive passes completed (tied 3rd on Arsenal, tied 3rd in the match)
3 - Final third entry passes completed
2 - Passes completed into the shot zone (the central area in front of goal) (tied 2nd on Arsenal, tied 2nd in the match)
36 - Touches
3.23 - Progressive distance gained per second on the ball
73.7% - Share of his passes released quickly
11 - Duels contested
7 - Duels won (3rd on Arsenal)
When I think of what the platonic ideal of a match is from Bruno Guimarães, it is essentially this.
He was an instant shot of impact for this match. He brought intent and progressiveness. This is a bit of the flip side of his game compared to Brighton, there his risk taking didn’t yield results and seemed to throw Arsenal off their game, here he was sharper and the risks he took paid dividends and propelled Arsenal forward.
There was an argument that he would be the most impactful player that Arsenal could sign to improve their attack and I think a match like this would be evidence to back that claim up.
The Manchester City Cloud that hung over the weekend
I had a bit of anxiety anticipating the matches this weekend. It was a long international break but it ended up full of news that shook the Premier League. It was the biggest story of the season and it broke containment outside of the normal silo where even people who aren’t soccer fans were hearing about it.
I anticipated things would be a bit surreal this weekend but the reality ended up feeling so much worse.
I thought because none of this was really “new” information and it was confirmation of what was long suspected but never able to be formally proven it wouldn’t be all that different. I was so wrong.
It felt so hollow and a bit depressing watching things play out like nothing has happened. I can’t really blame anyone but City here for this because it is their systemic cheating, and then delay tactics and non-cooperation that have dragged it out to this point.
The actual match felt like a weird non-event. Sure it was loud but I didn’t feel any emotions in it for myself. The commentators tried to acknowledge it but ultimately it felt like they were still talking about it like it was not proven or still just an accusation, rather than a finding and decision of guilt.
The match ultimately was aided by Liverpool being struck by the injury bug and then another controversial call that ended up in Manchester City’s favor, called by a referee from the Manchester area. Then post match the official Premier League feed is glorifying the team that they have spent the better part of a decade investigating and had just proven the charges against them.
This is a team that has been found guilty of cheating for a decade, the only reason that it wasn’t shown to have gone on longer is that the investigation has to stop somewhere and the actual charges brought. Even if (and I don’t believe it) this team is perfectly on the up and up, they were built on the foundation of flagrant flouting of the rules.
This has really hardened my opinion that they are deserving of the strongest sanctions that are available to them. Give them the death penalty and have them start again rebuilding from the very bottom.
I wouldn’t have previously fully supported this. It would be a drastic measure and unfair to punish the fans, players, club employees that didn’t take part in this cheating but after seeing weeks of former players/coaches not do any sort of soul searching or ownership of what happened that started to melt away.
The final icing on the cake was the embrace of the cheating by the match going fans. They would be the ones that would be the most sympathetic here and they lit that on fire with their chants and banners in support of the ownership and the embrace of cheating.
People might ask, “well what are they supposed to do? Abandon their club?” and that is just a silly question that tries to avoid the point. Fans have a long history of pushing back and protesting their ownership. If there was ever a time that justifies it I can’t imagine it would be any other time than now. The actions of this ownership group and management put the club in the situation where they are facing the most serious potential charges up to and including literal expulsion from the League and a tumble down the pyramid.
I understand that there is a process that needs to take place to protect fairness, it just makes everything feel like a farce. Manchester City’s actions and lack of cooperation make it so that they probably don’t deserve that, but we still need to stick to our principals and be better than they have been.
I hope that justice can move as swiftly as the process allows and that we get resolution sooner than later. I don’t know if I can take a full season of this and still have the same passion for this game and league.
Bukayo Saka is under the microscope
I feel like I have done nothing but write about Bukayo Saka lately. That wasn’t really my plan but the way that the overall discussion has gone has left me feeling like I have no other choice but to chime in.
Like so many things in modern life, it feels like current events need to be magnified and taken to the extreme. Saka has an off game (honestly I don’t even think it was bad) and that turns into that he is shit, he is washed, it was a mistake to extend his contract, he should have been sold in the summer, etc.
None of this really matches the reality of the situation.
I would be happy to say that he didn’t meet the high expectations that I have for him (and I have spelled out exactly what those are here) but I really can’t get behind the extreme opinions that I have seen online in the fan base.
Even in this match he was third in total attacking contribution, having involvement in 9 of Arsenal’s shots with 5 buildup actions, 2 key passes, and 2 shots. He was second in goal probability added in this match. He was second in expected threat created. He was third in total xG chain contribution in this match.
This was an off game for Saka and he still contributed in a massively positive way in a match that ultimately had Arsenal come away deserving winners.
I understand that there is lingering concerns about his injury and if he will ever get back to his previous level physically. He is the face of this Arsenal attack and there is significant doubts if it is good enough. He is the highest paid player in the team and that brings with it expectation and examination. I am just struggling to see a real connection from what is happening on the field and in the stats matching what is being said about him.
It unfortunately feels like there must be one player on the Arsenal team that ends up in this zone and right now that is Saka. I think that we need to have the ability to have more grounding in reality and nuance in our discussions but maybe this is just me tilting at windmills like an online Don Quixote.
The so called death penalty was applied to multiple university teams in the late 20th century. The two that come immediately come to mind are SMU in football and UK in bball. As a lifetime uk fan and grad, it was very hard to take because the final piece of evidence was such a stupidity it was tough to believe.
The uk death penalty ultimately lead to some of the greatest highs in program history and the subsequent teams are remembered very fondly.
So give the death penalty, what ever that means in the PL and move on.
The lads had .5 xG up to 60 minutes, if I’m eyeballing your progression chart correctly.