Arsenal vs Manchester United: The Debrief

Arsenal beat a rival and gain ground in the title race. Pundits lose their heads. A perfect storm for Arsenal.

Beating Manchester United is never not a sweet occasion.

It doesn’t matter how often it has happened (that is four in a row now, and closing in on 900 days since the last loss) it doesn’t lose any luster to beat this team after the years and years where they had Arsenal’s number.

It didn’t matter how down Manchester United was, or high Arsenal were flying in comparison, it always seemed like they found a way to get up against Arsenal and throw cold water on the good vibes.

I don’t take any of these wins for granted and savor all the post match posts, podcasts, and articles. Hopefully you enjoy this one as well.

Arsenal vs Manchester United: The Graphics

Arsenal vs Manchester United: The Debrief

14 - Shots from Arsenal in this match

6 - Shots on target (2.7 xG from shots on target)

5 - Big chances

2 - Goals

When you look at the numbers for this match, it was not a vintage attacking match by any stretch of the imagination. It is especially true when you look at the numbers that describe a passive first half performance that was raising some alarm bells.

Just 3 shots (all within the 22nd to 25th minute and all from set play situations) and very little threat created was not something I loved watching. It did seem that Arsenal came out with a don’t take too many risks mentality and was met by a Manchester United team that was set up in a mid-block to frustrate.

It created a poor spectacle for the people watching but I think did potentially give Arsenal some confidence that if they took a bit more risk that there was something there to attack Manchester United.

The second half so Arsenal push Manchester United back and they eventually could no longer withstand the pressure that Arsenal applied. In this game the big pressure came from Arsenal’s corners, every time one was created with the open play threat it didn’t feel like a release valve for Manchester United, but rather that they were being put into even more trouble.

This aura that Arsenal are building from set plays in a way also becomes a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Teams spending so much time working on this, seems to have them tighten up and overthink the normal way that they address corner kicks.

13 - Corner kicks in this match

46% - The percentage of corner kicks that generated at least one shot in this match. Arsenal generated 7 total shots, 4 big chances, and 1.1 xG

The Defense shines for Arsenal

5 - Shots for Manchester United total in this match, this is the fewest that they have had in a match sine May 2021. This is the fewest they have ever had in a match against Arsenal in the FBref Database

1 - Shot from open play by Manchester United in this match. It was worth 0.05 xG.

10 - Touches within 25 yards of Arsenal’s goal in this match for Manchester United, with just 6 in the box

In this match, Manchester United basically matches Arsenal in possession it was 51% for Arsenal and 49% for United, the total touches reflected the same 582 for Arsenal and 587 for United.

Even the final third numbers were not that far off in this match, Arsenal had 149 to 88 for United.

What United failed to do, and where Arsenal excelled in this match was giving them next to nothing at getting into truly dangerous locations.

Manchester United tried to press and make it hard for Arsenal to progress the ball but it was not particularly effective at creating chances. The one dangerous moment came from a Zinchenko giveaway and foul but even that didn’t directly lead to a shot.

Manchester United completed just 3 passes from open play into areas within 25 yards of goal.

That they attempted just 14 of these passes as well is a gold star for Arsenal’s defense. Looking at what they did in the areas outside the box that a defense looks to control really explains why. They didn’t have access to these zones and when they did, they were forced to play wide or backwards.

I have been waiting to see Arsenal show that they can put the clamps on a team again and it was very nice to have it be against this team and in this game.

Are Arsenal the new Stoke City?

The short answer is no.

The longer answer is still no, but it does show that maybe Pulis should have gotten a bit more respect for getting ahead of the curve on the importance of set plays. Arsenal are a great set play team, when you look at the best teams in the Premier League now, that is just the case. Manchester City and Liverpool have also used set plays to find scoring opportunities, it just wasn’t as obvious as Arsenal have been with it over the last couple of seasons.

The reason I say that no, Arsenal are not the new Stoke City, is that while they care deeply about creating as many opportunities from set plays this is where the comparison stops, set plays are far from the main threat for Arsenal.

Here is Stoke City under Pulis (for the data that is available):

2012/13 season - 15 of 37 goals from set plays for 41% of the total

2011/12 season - 16 of 38 goals from set plays for 42% of the total

2010/11 season - 18 of 46 goals from set plays for 39% of the total

2009/10 season - 14 of 35 goals from set plays for 40% of the total

Here is Arsenal for comparison:

2022/23 season - 15 of 88 goals from set plays for 17% of the total

2023/24 season - 20 of 91 goals from set plays for 22% of the total

2024/25 season - 7 of 28 goals from set plays for 25% of the total

Arsenal use set plays, and especially corner kicks as a threat to score but this team is more than that. They just are a team that I think respects every facet of the game and doesn’t look down at any method to help them win, even if it is not something that a big team should care about.

To hammer this home, if you were to magically take away corner kicks as a way of scoring, Arsenal’s place on the table would drop for tied for second but third behind Chelsea on goal difference to tied for third but ahead of Manchester City on goal difference. This even allows others to keep their corner kicks in the matches that they played.

The only matches that change would be the wins against Tottenham and Manchester United turn into draws. The draw against Liverpool turns into a win because Liverpool needed a corner kick to score from that game.

People had doubts that Arsenal would be able to continue to produce this level of goals from set plays. The Premier League was going to crack down on some of the tactics that Arsenal used, they over performed the xG, and teams would adapt to how they defended them. I was skeptical of that and strongly believed that this was actually sustainable and wrote that up in the summer:

I am glad to say that it looks like I have been shown to be on the right side of this take so far.

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