After losing headed into the international break, we had to marinate with that feeling hanging over us. It didn’t feel good, and you wish that there was another game coming up right after to help change the mood and the discussion. Arsenal didn’t have that opportunity, but they did get the first match of the weekend and took advantage of it to show that so much of what had been said about them in the two weeks leading up was wrong.
This was also the first chance for Arteta to show off the depth in his squad, he made several changes from what would be viewed as the “best XI” and featured five new signings in the team here. This is going to be something that will be important as the season goes on and if the team can find situations to keep key players fresh now, it should hopefully pay off when we get into the later parts of the season when the pressure ramps up.
Overall, it was the most complete game of the young season and gave us lots of good things to dig into today.
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest: The Graphics
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest: The Debrief
16 - Shots for Arsenal in this match, this is the second most behind the 17 shots they had against Leeds
37 - Touches in the box in this match, the most in a match so far this season. 21% of Arsenal’s final third touches were in the box, that is the highest proportion this season.
9 - Shots from open play in this match, this is second again to Leeds where they had 11.
2.26 - Expected goals for Arsenal, this is second to Leeds where they had 3.3 (2.5 excluding the penalty).
1.03 - xG from Open Play (1 goal), the most in a match so far this season (0.23, 0.92, 0.28 previously). 2.46 xG from open play total this season
1.23 - xG from Set Play (2 goals), 3.96 xG from set play total this season (4.76 including the penalty)
This was a solid overall attacking performance for Arsenal. The team had a nice mixture of volume of shots and still did a good job at creating a number of good scoring chances (0.14 xG per shot is very good and they had 4 big chances in this match).
Arsenal didn’t camp in the Forest half this match, with just a 60% field tilt here and the overall possession at just 54% but they did have excellent box efficiency here to convert what they did have here into chances and goals.
One of the other things here that will remain a talking point is that Arsenal had still just a bit more than 1 expected goal from open play; after starting the round third bottom this won’t have moved them significantly up the list. I care about Arsenal’s ability to create chances from open play, but I do come about it from a more holistic view looking a part of the team’s ability to create chances and also how it compares to what the team has allowed.
We always want more here (and I do think that will come) but it’s not something I am worried about yet because a) it is just 4 matches into the season, b) the team is producing 1.8 xG per match overall and that is quite good.
5 - Shots allowed, after giving up 22 shots in the first match of the season Arsenal have given up just 17 in the three matches since, that is just 5.7 per match.
13 - Touches in the box allowed in this match, after giving up 34 in the first match of the season Arsenal have allowed just 34 in the three matches since, that is just 11.3 per match.
0 - Big chances allowed in this match, Arsenal have allowed 0 big chances all season long.
0.18 - xG allowed in this match, Arsenal have allowed 2.23 total this season and that is just 0.56 allowed per match.
We have come to expect it for Arsenal, but this defense is unreal. Arsenal do not allow teams to have good looks at their goal period.
Madueke is making believers out of his haters
I almost published this without adding this section. I was one of the bigger backers of this signing, singing his praises and believing that there was a lot to like about this player. He has had a week that showed it off between his performance with England and Arsenal.
I hope it continues, and he gives Arteta some selection headaches.
What exactly is Calafiori’s position anyway and does it matter?
Calafiori has started all four matches this season for Arsenal and he has become pretty integral into how the team is able to create the spark that generates attack for Arsenal. In this match it was no different as he played the inch perfect pass over the top that set Arsenal on their way to the second goal.
He came into the League very misunderstood, especially by the wider world; he was a center back in Serie A the final season before he moved, but that was a “center back” in the way that he has nominally been playing “left back” for Arsenal.
I have posted the performance charts from each of his first four games this season below and if you squint, there is one match (Liverpool) that looks like something you’d expect to see a “normal” full back produce.
Calafiori is a bit of a contradiction of a player, especially for what you consider the role of a defender.
This is a player has a goal and two assists already this season in under 300 minutes, that is tied for the most in the team. He is second in shot creating actions with 12 but only has three key passes and one pass completed into the box.
He is third in touches in the box for Arsenal and he is just 8th in touches in the defensive third, behind many players with fewer minutes played this season.
He is third for progressive passes received, and just 6th for progressive passes played this season.
I am starting to develop quite an affection for this player and his unique skills and role. It can be frustrating at times that people that are not in the weeds living and breathing Arsenal will miscast him, hell I think that we will struggle to describe what he does using our conventional descriptions. I am ready to sit back and just enjoy the ride here.
Arsenal have found a gem in Cristhian Mosquera
83 - Pass Attempts (led all players), 76 Completed (led all players), 91.6% completion percentage, and 106.7% Pass Efficiency
3 - Final 3rd Entry Passes completed
2 - Long Passes completed out of 2 attempted
687 - Progressive Pass Distance (led all players)
6 - Progressive Carries
2 - Tackles, 0 times Dribbled Past
2 - Interceptions
6 - Ball Recoveries
4 - Clearances
When I did my First thoughts post after the Nottingham Forest match, I totally left him off the list of positives. It is just a reflection of how quickly I have just accepted that this is his level and him stepping in and the defense not missing a beat. That’s unfair to him but also in a way pretty high praise. I wasn’t worried when I saw him starting on the team sheet instead of William Saliba, his play in this match backed that up.
Nwaneri impresses in midfield
40 - Pass Attempts, 35 Completed, 87.5% completion percentage, and 102.9% Pass Efficiency
3 - Final 3rd Entry Passes completed
3 - Progressive Passes
1 - Key Pass, 0.04 xA
3 - Shots, 0.16 xG
5 - Progressive Carries
4 - Touches in the box
0.83 - xG Buildup
3 - Ball Recoveries
For the second time this season Nwaneri was called upon to come in for an injured Martin Odegaard in the first half of a match. The first time out against Leeds I think he did a solid job but this time I think he looked even more impressive.
The first periods after coming in cold, had some moments to forget about and he had a few times where he held on carrying the ball vs releasing it but as the came progressed his decision making improved significantly to where I think he had his timing down really nice.
He also seemed to have a bit more belief in his passing in this match where he showed his ability to progress the ball up the field rather than just carrying it up. This helped to give the Arsenal play a nice zip to it.
The other things that caught my eye here, he handled the physicality of the game with no issues. Sangare and Anderson tried to muscle him off the ball, but he was strong and shielded it well riding their challenges. The last one to note was that on the play where he gets on the end of the Merino cutback that goes over the bar, I really liked his anticipation and movement. He started from deep but saw the play developing and got himself to the spot and had the confidence to demand the ball there. He didn’t have the cleanest contact but that is the type of play that leads to goals and I love to see it.
Gyokeres volume play makes its first showing of the season
16 - Matches out of 33 total played last season in the Primeira Liga that Gyokeres had 4 or more shots in a match. In the Champions League it was an addition 2 out of 8. If we set the bar at 3 shots in a match it was 21 in the league and 4 in Europe.
1 - The number of times now that he has done it with Arsenal, with 4 shots in this match against Forest.
0.8 - Expected goals and an actual goal scored from a nice first-time finish to give Arsenal more comfort going from +1 goal up to +2 goals up.
For Gyokeres, I don’t particularly care about a lot of his actions outside the area 25 yards from the center of the goal. If he can be decent at hold up play, that’s fine. If he does or doesn’t make passes dropping into midfield, I can take it or leave it. I am pretty solely focused on the stuff with him on the areas in and around the box (and to expand just a bit how he can make runs/plays that lead to him getting actions in that area).
The Leeds match showed a bit of that, but he still had just the one moment where he was able to impact the game and had 4 touches in the box (ignoring the penalty). Here we got to see him more involved in this key area:
He had 8 touches within 25 yards of goal and turned that into 4 shots, if he is turning 30-40% of those touches into shots we are going to be doing good.
He had 13 passes received and 8 of them were progressive
He added a progressive pass and a key pass from inside this key zone as well out of the three passes that he tried.
We all want to jump to conclusions early and the hardest thing to do is to wait and see but that is still what we have to do here with this player.
I love having a "thing" to track on a regular basis and I think for this season it will be Gyökeres’s production compared to my preseason targets for what “success” for him would look like. I set this talking with Adam in preseason, and it is based on his CL production, his league adjusted numbers, and my view for what players that are good/very good but short of elite have produced. For this season that means I want to see him at 0.45 non-penalty Goals scored and 2.7 Shots taken per 90 in the Premier League. Here is a fun graphic that you will see me post as we watch this over the course of this season:
Correction: A previous version of this post had a graphic on the Gyökeres shots and goal tracking that had a mistake and understated the goals scored per 90. This has been updated with the correct information.