Arsenal vs Southampton: Instant Reaction

Happy St. Totteringham's day... I guess

Straight into it.

Headline: The Pressure Get’s to Arsenal

For the first time this season, it did finally seem like the pressure had gotten to Arsenal. The first goal is a bit of a fluke mistake where Aaron Ramsdale telegraphs his pass with Carlos Alcaraz reading and baiting him into making the pass the whole way. Making a mistake happens, but after it felt like Arsenal felt the weight of the title challenge and played with a helter-skelter energy instead of remembering that the rest of the game was still in front of them.

Even before Theo Walcott scores to put Southampton up 2-0, this game felt waaaaaay too open and was not the Arsenal that we have watched for 31 games previously.

Southampton pressed high and effectively. Singling out Rob Holding as the player that they demanded to beat them marking everyone but him and it paid off. Arsenal in the opening 12 minutes had a lower pass completion rate than Southampton and passed well below what my expected passing model suggested they should have.

It was pretty shocking stuff.

A goal from Martinelli at 20 minutes gave some hope and a lifeline but it was pretty short-lived.

What happened after halftime was simply shocking from Arsenal. From the start of the second half Arsenal attempted 196 passes, completing 168 of them. They had 64 final third passes with 79% possession backed up by 80% Field tilt and 11 touches in the box but... 0 Shots.

It was the definition of sterile toothless possession from Arsenal and in that 25-minute stretch, the title hopes really deflated. Arsenal didn’t have a shot until after Southampton regained their two-goal advantage. Ultimately Arsenal almost pulled off a miracle but between the loss of their heads for 15 minutes early in the game and then looking bereft of ideas for 25 minutes to start the second half it felt like we were watching a different team than the one we have loved this season.

The other things that is hard to get past is this:

1.6 expected goals against what is perhaps the worst team in the Premier League. That on any day is just not acceptable.

When I wrote this yesterday afternoon I did not expect to have to revisit it so soon but that is exactly what this match makes me consider.

Bottling It

The season isn’t over but if the margin for error was gone after West Ham it is now in City’s hands to not blow this with Arsenal really testing my ability to defend them against being told they threw this title challenge away.

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