Arsenal's attacking depth is good but risky

Adding a forward to the group would be nice and would mitigate injury risk, it just doesn't have to be anyone with the group of attackers stacking up nicely against their peers

We are all (mostly) experts on Arsenal and we can take a look at the roster and feel the unease of the depth of the attacking group.

I hear it all the time online, what if Saka gets hurt? How will the team be able to survive playing in four competitions this season? We need a proven player to boost the group to challenge Manchester City!

These are valid questions or statements, I think we are also a little too close to Arsenal where we know our problems but maybe aren’t fully aware of how Arsenal’s peers also have similar problems or questions.

When you stack up Arsenal against the other teams I think this team more than holds its own and looks like a strong bunch. It isn’t without areas that can be strengthened but the situation is far from dire.

What follows is a close look at Arsenal’s options and how they compare to the other “Big 7” teams.

Striker

First Choice: Kai Havertz

Rotation option: Gabriel Jesus

Backup: Leandro Trossard

It took a while to get there but it looks like Arsenal’s current first choice at striker is Kai Havertz.

He will still have frustrations at times in the position but it is hard to argue with the production that he has had in the position with Arsenal. The chart below looks only at his time playing as a striker in the Premier League last year plus the first game of this season.

That looks close to amazing.

The consistent complaint about Havertz as a striker is that he doesn’t get the shots off that you want from an elite player. That worry remains for me but in the very small sample of the last two matches he has put up shot totals of 9 and 5. Overall between 2 and 3 is fine because he combines it with outstanding shooting locations inside the box.

I would also be as bold as to say that Havertz the striker in general has never been as bad as people seemed to think it was. Here is what his full career looks like.

That’s above-average production from a young player who was often moved to the position from somewhere else on the field.

Overall I think Havertz adds a nice well rounded and flexible player as the striker. He is a good outlet, has shown some nice passes in transition, he is quite fast, is a tough task for center-backs with his size, and is comfortable floating into midfield or into the channels.

Arsenal also have a solid number two choice. Jesus is or at least was an elite forward when he was healthy. He has one major weakness (finishing) that stopped him from probably being the best overall forward in the game.

Even with that flaw, he is a very good (but frustrating) player.

The new problem for him is that he got a knee injury at the World Cup and he just looks like a different player than what he showed previously. There is hope that he has been able to get back some of that over the summer but it is still going to always be a worry.

If Arsenal can focus on using Jesus when he is closer to fully fit and not over use him, it might just be a situation where they can get something closer to the best from him.

Arsenal’s deeper bench options also look pretty solid. It does include moving players from other spots but the options of Leandro Trossard or even Gabriel Martinelli through the middle are good alternatives for Mikel Arteta to choose from.

I have long advocated for more Trossard at striker, especially when the option was Eddie Nketiah. I think his style of play better fits with Arsenal and he is more comfortable drifting wide and interchanging with the other players on the team. I think this is something that we could see if it is needed.

Arsenal Striker Depth Compared to Big 7

Looking at this there might be teams that have a better first choice than Arsenal at striker, I would take Haaland (duh), Isak and maybe if you catch me on the right day Nunez from this list over Havertz. For the others, I would stick with what Arsenal have over making a trade.

I think Arsenal’s overall depth at the position is also very strong, with really only Liverpool with Jota and Nunez stronger. Manchester City losing Julian Alvarez makes their depth very shallow and while Haaland is the best striker in the world, he is a player who has had nagging injuries taking him out of action for extended periods.

It is the dream of many fans to add a 25-goal striker and I don’t think that would be something anyone turns down, it is also a rare occurrence.

Last season only Harry Kane had 25 or more non-penalty goals in the top 5 European League. Over the last 5 seasons, there have been 10 total times where a player hit 25 or more, and it was just 6 different players (Kane, Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, Robert Lewandowski, Leo Messi, and Timo Werner) who have done it.

Left Wing

First Choice: Gabriel Martinelli

Rotation Option: Leandro Trossard

Backup: Resis Nelson¹

Martinelli is a player I that I love. I want to be upfront on this and while I do think that he is truly the first choice, I can understand why some might put Trossard there.

I think the overall game and the upside of Martinelli is a better and fuller package than Trossard and that will mean that more often he will be the player that is starting on the left wing for Arsenal.

He is also a good player.

Full stop, this is a good player and it doesn’t need caveats.

Martinelli hasn’t turned into an ELITE player like Bukayo Saka on the other side but he has absolutley developed into a good wide forward and there isn’t a reason to suspect that there is zero room for growth in his game.

There is also a weird narrative that I think is pretty closely tied to his finishing. His overall shot numbers and xG have been pretty consistent, especially over the last three seasons where he played a larger sample of minutes.

Last season did see a drop off in the xG numbers and that is a worry but it was also accompanied by him getting fewer central touches and playing more of a wide rather than inside forward.

I am bullish on the player, but IF there is a spot left in the XI to upgrade it is this or the left midfielder spot².

Arsenal have an enviable rotation option on the left and this is probably the position in the attacking line where the answer to who is the first choice is not clear. Looking at the production from Trossard you can see why.

Trossard’s game isn’t quite as perfectly suited to play wide.

He isn’t slow but he isn’t going to make defenders nervous about his threat to run behind. He isn’t going to beat a player with a dribble or draw double and triple teams pulling teams out of shape with his gravity.

What he does do is find pockets of space, use his experience to find windows to shoot or make passes, and find ways to get into good locations to take advantage of his excellent end product. He has had good shot production combined with good finishing last year while also showing more creativity in his first season with the club.

It is a good option and it makes for a good compliment to the skills that Martinelli brings to a game.

Arsenal Left Wing Depth Compared to Big 7

Martinelli or Trossard ranked against the other options here is tough. I think that overall the left-wing options right now in the Premier League are all good but none are elite with everyone having some flaws in their game or their age pulling them down.

I would say Arsenal’s options are probably middle of the pack (trying to rank here is hard, I have talked myself into multiple combinations) but with an upside if Martinelli gets back toward the ceiling that he has flashed. The overall depth looks good but not exceptional compared to the peers. Seeing the options at left wing for the teams (outside of Chelsea who even among all of their players still feel kind of light for a real option on the left) I was surprised by how bunched up everyone is here in options and talent.

Right Wing

First Choice: Bukayo Saka

Rotation Option: Gabriel Jesus

Backup: Gabriel Martinelli, Reiss Nelson

If the left wing was the position with the most uncertainty, right-wing is the complete opposite. Arsenal knows exactly who is playing here when there isn’t an injury question and that is Bukayo Saka.

Saka has grown from a promising player into a full-on superstar. When you think of right-wing players that might be better than him right now, I get Mohamed Salah and then I think I run out of names. I might even make a case that his overall body of work is better than Salah who is now much more of a final-third-only player.

His growth as a player the last three seasons has been spectacular and I think he still has more that he can add to his game.

This gift is also what makes trying to come up with the mythical backup for him a near-impossible task.

Without having to pull from another position the option is Reiss Nelson. He is potentially in the departure lounge but for now, he would nominally be the choice here.

I think that paints the wrong picture of the true depth chart.

If Saka were to miss out for the next Arsenal Premier League or Champions League match, Nelson would be a long shot to take up the starting spot. The choice would more likely be Gabriel Jesus or even Gabriel Martinelli.

Both of these players filled in for Saka when he missed a game and that is likely to be the case should it happen again. Neither are perfect like-for-like swaps, with both being right-footed but are both good players and capable of doing more than just a job out there on the wing.

Jesus has the most experience (15.4 career 90s in the PL and CL) on the right wing and would be my first choice should it be called upon.

As a plan B, that would be a nice choice, even if you have to discount the numbers because much of this came when he was younger and didn’t have a knee injury.

Arsenal Right Wing Depth Compared to Big 7

For Manchester City I had trouble actually picking the order of these players, I think Silva is perhaps the first choice with new guy Savinho getting worked in. Phil Foden could play here but I think he is more of an advanced central midfielder most games and less of a player on the wing.

Overall I still like Arsenal’s options at right wing here.

Like I said above, I take Saka over all of these players expect maybe Salah. The Salah example is a good one too, Liverpool have never really had a backup for him in the true sense but would almost certainly shift someone like Nunez out wide if needed. I think Arsenal would do something similar if they needed to.

Overall Depth

Going through this exercise I can see why adding a player would be nice. Arsenal have five players that they like and Arteta has shown trust in the attacking group plus a player that is there to help make up the numbers.

Compared to peers Arsenal having just 5 players is short, most other teams have groups that are more 6-7 players deep. Arsenal can get by with a little extra versatility in the group but it is a risky squad-building choice. With the number of fixtures that the team will contend with this season and the injury history of one of the key members, that is leaving the team a bit short to cover the season. If the team can avoid an injury crisis it might be able to navigate it but that risk is too high for me.

David Ornstein from The Athletic, and all-around knower of things related to Arsenal had some interesting comments on Duncan Castle’s Transfer Podcast on Arsenal’s search for a new wide player: ⁩

Arsenal are in this quite strange position with their wide players in looking for a backup who will be happy being a backup, yet will contribute to… help them win trophies, and compete for major honors. That’s almost like your Harry Kane dilemma at Tottenham, who comes in to be understudy to the main man?

Now of course there will be injuries but when they [Saka and Martinelli] are fit, they play, it’s tough. They [also] have Trossard who can fill in and sometimes starts as first choice. You know they will be looking at players and it’s just not easy at all.

In the past there was Pedro Netto, who the Arsenal decision-makers were big fans of, they made offers but he is now at Chelsea. The one that Mikel Arteta and those involved at Arsenal really like is Nico Williams at Athletic Bilbao… The problem is that he is already on a really high wage, which will only increase when he comes to the Premier League and a release clause in his contract with Bilbao that will need to be paid in full. Very few players leave there [Bilbao] and it would appear that he’s going to be staying.

It is possible that Arsenal bring somebody in for [wide forward] before the window shuts if they can find the deal.

My reading of this is that Arsenal are open to a big move, it just has to be a good player like Nico Williams. The more plausible move this window might be a player that fits more into the backup role with a player like Williams unlikely to move this summer. If that is the path that Arsenal go down, I wonder if it is more of a young prospect-type player is the choice.

I don’t have any inside information but I have seen a name like Simon Adingra linked, he’s young, has played in the Premier League, has played both sides, and has a good stats profile.

It will be fun to watch how the end of the window ends up, but even if there isn’t another move. I don’t think it is the end of the world it is just adding more risk than I think most of us would be comfortable with.

1. Nelson could end up leaving the team on loan or on a permanent transfer but at the time of this writing, no moves are close.

2. The left midfield spot upgrade might be done by the time this is being read with the signing of Mikel Merino. I have some doubts that this is a full upgrade but it might be how the club sees it.