Arsenal's January transfer tightrope

Is strengthening for the run-in really as easy as it sounds?

I’m not sure we’ve seen a transfer window as rife with competing dynamics as Arsenal’s January 2024 dip into the talent market.

On the one hand, there are easily identifiable issues that could use smoothing out. Arsenal’s forwards aren’t scoring (let’s ignore the why for now), so a talented kicker of the ball would be very welcome. A new midfielder could help both in terms of depth and quality of options as Arteta selects his teams this season and moving forward. And there’s certainly a shortage of warm bodies at the back, where Arsenal’s current sixth choice for four positions is the venerable Cédric Soares, everyone’s favorite football parasite.

It naturally stands to reason that “Arsenal should add some players this month” is an incredibly lukewarm take. It’s not even necessarily a hot topic to talk about which position should be targeted; you could probably benefit from someone just about anywhere.

If only it were as easy as all that.

For one, it’s January. That of course means that clubs are mid-campaign, pushing for the absolute best result they can get this season. Letting their best players go right now — and anyone who could be considered a real needle-mover will be a “best player” if he’s moving up the ladder to Arsenal — is something that needs to benefit the seller or loaner, whether that’s financially or otherwise. That can also provide something of a glass ceiling on the quality of players on the market, something Arsenal have run into in past pursuits of players such as Moisés Caicedo, who wasn’t for sale, or the great striker hunt of January 2022, when nobody enticing was actually available…or at least nobody enticing who answered Arsenal’s phone calls.

But that’s not Arsenal’s biggest problem, really. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that ownership is tired of spending, or that cash is short at London Colney. The bigger issue is whether Arsenal spending money would be legal in the eyes of the footballing authorities.

The limited revenue (from missing out on Champions League football for six years, mostly, but also from not making much on sales) and exponential spending of the three-year period from 2021-2022 through this season has put Arsenal on the brink of overstepping financial governance such as the Premier League’s Profit & Sustainability Rules, a breach of which just cost Everton a cool 10 points, or UEFA’s Financial Fair Play rules, which may be bearing down on some clubs of note in the near future.

A less financially-inclined fan of Arsenal might feel as though FFP is an issue that only Arsenal face, but this month we’ve already seen Manchester United’s ambitions metered by the rules, as well as a potential punishment coming to Nottingham Forest (and a second punishment for Everton). Newcastle could’ve spent much more this past summer without FFP. And of course there’s the big question of what will happen with Chelsea, especially if they don’t make a European competition.

Fans who recognize FFP as a challenge but still demand action have an easy pivot to make: Sell some players! After all, there are potential pure profit machines on the squad in Eddie Nketiah, Emile Smith Rowe and Reiss Nelson, and a further potential windfall in the form of Aaron Ramsdale. But just how feasible is that?

Selling as a benefit

Here is the thing about selling players: You don’t just do it to do it. You do it as means to an end. Whether you’re a developmental club who buys players to develop and sell, or a top outfit selling because it enables other moves down the line, sales still have to bring an advantage.

In Arsenal’s case, you could certainly argue that selling Nketiah for something like £20 million could be a benefit, because it could unlock up to £100 million in present-day spending under FFP, depending on how the deal is structured.

But, there are some issues with that line of thinking.

Focusing first on the squad, Arsenal have played 13 players at least 600 minutes (roughly one-third of available minutes) in the Premier League this season. In a perfect world, you might be able to add a fit Thomas Partey and Jurriën Timber to that. Maybe Fábio Vieira as well.

That sounds decent, but it does also include Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, Benjamin White, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Oleksandr Zinchenko, all of whom have suffered injury issues this season that have cost them multiple games (or are currently injured), and none of whom you’d be surprised to see take a stint on the injury list. Timber, of course, could be back in March but will take some ramping up. Partey is a mystery, and Vieira is still TBD, as far as I’ve seen.

With injuries like that, squad players are elevated into more key roles. Eddie Nketiah, as his detractors are quick to point out, has started a lot of games this season because of injuries to Jesus or the wingers. Jakub Kiwior has seen most of his playing time, whether in the league or cups, due to injuries to Zinchenko and Tomi. Arteta may not use Reiss Nelson the way I or other fans would like, but with one of Martinelli or Jesus out, he quickly becomes one of the few attacking options off the bench. And if the options are shorter up front, your would-be midfield depth, like Kai Havertz and Leandro Trossard, get pulled into the forward fray and leave a hole behind them.

You don’t necessarily have to feel good about that, but that’s the state of affairs. And that makes each member of the squad, even lightly-used ESR, potentially key down the stretch. Particularly once we get into February, and hopefully March and April, with important games mid-week.

One out, one in

None of that is to say Arsenal couldn’t logically sell someone. Of course they could! But remember the above spiel about selling as a benefit? That means Arsenal need to gain something from the deal.

There are a couple of ways to do that. First, you get a really good offer. With respect to Crystal Palace, they may not be the club to knock Arsenal’s socks off for Nketiah, with recent spending capped in the low £20m per player range. Reiss Nelson and ESR don’t have the juice right now to get that big offer, either, and I’d bet generously that any leaked offers would ruffle some Arsenal fans’ feathers.

If there is someone, it’s probably Ramsdale, but credible reporters have said his potential suitors — Chelsea and Newcastle — aren’t ready to spend big on a keeper this month. So that probably ends that. (He’d need to be replaced anyway, eating into the benefit of selling him)

The second way to benefit from that sale: You swap in a better player. I don’t think it’s some inconceivable concept that you could upgrade on Reiss Nelson or Nketiah or Smith Rowe, much as I like and rate them all. But here, we introduce another dynamic.

Thinking long

Ah, yes. The PROJECT. This is what stopped Arsenal from buying Douglas Luiz in summer 2022, or “any striker” in January 2022.

Discussion around the club is highly focused on “right now,” and for good reason. Fans want to win right now. If a title can be gotten right now, go get it!

But is upgrading Eddie Nketiah’s position with someone like Dominic Solanke (note: It was reported while I was drafting that Solanke won’t be sold this month), for instance, a move that elevates Arsenal over a longer term? It sure seems like the brass doesn’t think so. So what would be better? How about swapping Nketiah for someone the club covets, whether that’s Victor Osimhen or Pedro Neto, or even not-£100m-Ivan-Toney? These are the moves that can’t be done right now. And bringing in that lesser player right now, even if they are quite good, gets in the way of the potential superstar later. It’s just not how to build and elevate squad.

So, could something really good present itself later? Of course! There are still three full weeks for players to run amok of their managers, ask their agents to stir up interest, announce they won’t sign a contract extension, or make other moves that might make them suddenly available.

But Arsenal, for all the reasons above, will want assurances that they can get someone really, really good before they’re going to sell someone they may end up needing. And even then, they’re still going to need a good offer. While lack of a market for a player is commonly blamed on Edu, or Arteta, there’s not a ton they can do to conjure up a market for a player where there isn’t one.

Fabrizio puts it well here. It’s an awfully delicate situation to be in. Whether it was avoidable is a subject that people like to focus on, certainly. Maybe that’s a topic for a future piece. Or maybe you can read a thread I did on player sales recently, linked here.

But as for now, we watch and wait (impatiently). And if Arsenal don’t make that big splash of a move, it won’t be because of a lack of ambition.