Arsenal's Squad Situation Coming into Pre-Season
The transfer window is just heating up, where can and should Arsenal strengthen given the current state of the team.
As the start of the transfer season has slowly gotten going, I have found myself looking at the squad more and thinking about the general pecking order of the players.
I like this framework because I think it gives you a better feel for where opportunities for other players to provide impacts and how much we should expect from certain players.
I have broken this down into five general categories, Undisputed Stater, First Choice Player, Main Rotation, Secondary Rotation, and Backup.
It will vary slightly from player to player but I think the general rule of thumb for each spot is as follows:
Undisputed Stater: Starts 90% of the time in the Premier League and Champions League when fit enough. They might get an occasional break if there is a particularly hectic period and a suitable opponent to rest against, but otherwise they are starting.
I would put the following Arsenal players in this group.
Bukayo Saka - Right Wing
Martin Odegaard - Right Midfield
William Saliba - Right Center Back
Gabriel - Left Center Back
David Raya - Goal Keeper
Ben White - Right Back
Declan Rice (but the big question is at what role and that makes him a little different than the others) - Left Midfield or Defensive Midfield
I hope there isn’t too much controversy with these players. I think they make up the backbone of the team as the season starts. These are the players that the general structure of the team is built around and they will basically be the players that give Arsenal the very high floor for the expectations that they have to start the season.
First Choice Player: Starts about 70% of the time in the Premier League and Champions League when fit enough. They will start a bit less because they need to be managed injury wise or for tactical purposes Mikel Arteta wants something else.
I would put the following Arsenal players in this group.
Kai Havertz - Striker
Gabriel Martinelli - Left Wing
Takahiro Tomiyasu - Left Back
This is a smaller group and this basically rounds out the first eleven for Arsenal as things stand before any new players come in or any major first team players leave. I almost put Ben White into this group compared to the Undisputed Stater because of the of Jurrien Timber but that felt like projecting too much at this early stage.
For some Havertz might be up a group but I still think that there will be times that the tactics will move where he plays and perhaps Gabriel Jesus is not fully done with the position of striker if he is able to come back from the knee injury looking like the player he was 2 years ago.
At the start of last year Martinelli would have been in the group above, but he saw himself displaced and with that I can’t move him back above that. There is also a bit more smoke in the rumor market for left sided attackers. I think he starts the season in pole position in this spot but he will need to find the trajectory that he was on previously to hold on to this spot.
Lastly, Tomiyasu and the left back spot. This is perhaps the most unknow of the positions outside of the left midfield/defensive midfield question. I think based on the way last season ended Tomiyasu starts with the position but it is uncertain and it might go through several looks before someone makes it there own.
Main Rotation: I see this role as the player that picks up the starts for when players aren’t fit and need a break. They will be the option for the first subs used off of the bench. I expect that these players will get good playing time over the course of the season.
I would put the following Arsenal players in this group.
Jurrien Timber - Right Back
Oleksandr Zinchenko - Left Back
Thomas Partey - Defensive Midfield
Kai Havertz - Left Midfield
Gabriel Jesus - Striker, Right Wing
Leandro Trossard - Left Wing
Ben White - Right Center Back
We are going to see players now with dual roles and some players from previous positions showing versatility to provide additional coverage.
I expect that Ben White will primarily play Right Back but I also think that he is the first rotation option at Right Center Back. This is because I think highly of Timber who I think will get some looks to Right Back and the realization that we might not want to have Saliba play every minute of every Premier League and Champions League match if we don’t have to.
Timber in general is a tough player to guess where he plays and how much. He started on the left last season, but I think that was heavily driven by the necessity of Tomiyasu and Zinchenko starting the season hurt and unavailable. He is capable on the left but I still think the right is ultimately his best side. Last season I thought there was a distinct possibility that he could unseat White as the right back but he got hurt and White took a step forward with his performances. I expect he will play quite a bit, but it might not be in one position but rather being a bit of cover all over the back five positions on the field.
Zinchenko is a tough one. I think there is a major chance that he could leave the team this summer and I would not think that is a bad decision. He is also a unique talent so the market for him might be smaller and he is also very valuable to Arsenal if he is still in the squad. I am starting him here but with a lot of uncertainty about his future.
Thomas Partey is another tough one. I think the club would be happy to see him depart this season. There are rumors of Saudi Arabia but he seemed to not be interested in that last season and I am not sure he will have changed his mind. The final stretch of last season suggest that Arteta still sees value in him playing (even if think he often looked like a shadow of his previous best) and that is what makes me start him at this spot. He could leave or his standing in the squad could shift quickly.
Secondary Rotation: These players will not really start in these spots expect for when it is down to injuries to players above. Most starts would come in the League and FA Cup early rounds if they happen at all. They will get some sub minutes here but it is much more dependent on the game state and they won’t be often the first subs made.
I would put the following Arsenal players in this group.
Jorginho - Defensive Midfield
Fabio Vieira - Right Midfield
Emile Smith Rowe - Left Midfield
Leandro Trossard - Striker
Takahiro Tomiyasu - Left Center Back, Right Back
Jurrien Timber - Left Back
This is one where the category is a little more muddled.
Jorginho probably fits more in the spot above and very well could move up as the squad movement shakes out. For now I think he is behind either Rice/New Player, and Partey for this role. He would probably get more minutes and have a better chance to start than others similarly placed.
Vieira and Smith Rowe are probably in a similar situation. Smith Rowe seems closer to an exit but in the squad as it stands it feels like both players still have a lot to prove. They can and have provided impact to the team with their play but they have not gotten the managers full trust enough to be placed any higher than this.
For Tomiyasu I almost put him higher on this for left center back to mirror White but ultimately opted against it. His injury record and the general uncertainty in the left side makes me unsure about most in these positions. We have also only seen this once from my memory in the years that he has been here. I do think he has this spot on the right back depth chart as well.
Backup: Probably won’t play meaningful minutes in the Premier League or Champions League without injuries to players ahead of them. Could see situational minutes as a late sub.
I would put the following Arsenal players in this group.
Aaron Ramsdale - Goalkeeper
Jakub Kiwior - Left Back, Left Center Back
Takahiro Tomiyasu - Right Center Back
Reiss Nelson - Right Wing, Left Wing
Eddie Nketiah - Striker
This might be too low for Eddie Nketiah given how much he has played the last few seasons but this is just where I rate him in the Arsenal team. I think that Havertz, Jesus, and Trossard are better options and that just means he is 4th choice here. That is also a bit of a reflection of the final months of the season where he really didn’t get any meaningful minutes with all of those guys getting time ahead of him. I expect that this might be the summer he moves.
Ramsdale for now takes this spot. It might suck for him to be stuck here but it will probably depend on how the market develops for him after the Euros.
Kiwior did an excellent job filling in last season but he started at this spot last year and I don’t really see a reason that he would have moved above any of the other players when they are healthy. The smoke of a new left sided defender could signal the end of the Arsenal stay for him (or Zinchenko).
Nelson is behind Saka, Jesus, and maybe even Martinelli in the right wing pecking order. It sucks for him and it might be where he calls it a day on his time with Arsenal. He can’t have just a few hundred minutes of playing time in all competitions again.
***
So this is what I think Arsenal’s depth chart looks like.
I think the key areas remain making a decision on what exactly Arteta wants Declan Rice to be at Arsenal. So that will mean getting a left midfielder or a defensive midfielder for the club. Maybe both and some departures but it needs to be decided.
Some more attacking depth. The depth doesn’t look bad but I think the question marks around Jesus would make me warry to be dependent on him and there is still room to potentially add more to the left hand side with Trossard being a bit of an awkward fit out there at times.
It does also look like another trusted defender would help this chart look nicer. Tomiyasu is all over the depth chart and he is capable in all of those roles but he also has a pretty ugly injury track record. It would be great to have that nailed down and the floor raised with potentially one of Zinchenko or Kiwior moving out.
This seems to match the movement and rumors that Arsenal are looking at in the market. It will be interesting to see how the squad develops and how the roles start shaking out. It is less than 3 weeks until the pre-season fully kicks off for Arsenal and we can start seeing how the team might look for the coming season.