Arsenal's title hopes are on the line

Sunday is a BIG to put it plainly for Arsenal's chances in the title race

One of the most obvious things that is not better about this year is the team’s spot in the title race. Last year with the best-ever start to the season the team jumped out to a surprising lead and then were in the lead deep into the season.

This year Arsenal have led but it was a short window with most of the time in the hunt but not the leader. Even though the points haven’t been as good, they team is close and in someways maybe even better than last year.

Arsenal are a bit behind last season’s attacking numbers but not that much (also colder finishing) and have put up better underlying defensive numbers. The sequencing of the goals has just not worked out quite as well and has hurt the title odds.

You can see this in the title odds over the course of this year.

Manchester City started the season as the heavy favorites and held that for most of the early season. They stumbled in November into December going on a run of just one win in six, opening the door for Arsenal and Liverpool to climb above them.

Arsenal moved into pole position following a draw at Anfield but crashed with their own one-win streak (Arsenal’s was only five, but also had three losses compared to just one for City). This has allowed Liverpool to open up some space and for City to rebound into the second spot.

This is where we are now, Arsenal are hanging on for dear life to their title hopes and coming in with one of the toughest remaining matches of the season on the line. It is not quite a true six-pointer but for Arsenal, this is nearly must win for the title odds.

To get a sense of the magnitude of this match I ran the three different simulations for the outcomes to see what this can do for the odds.

Not surprisingly winning is very important. That would double Arsenal’s title odds and while still very much on the outside of things would make them feel a bit more real with them in actual double digits. For City, they would probably move to favorites with this result but because I have held them steady they are still just a touch behind (about half a point) with two games in hand worth about 4.5 points.

The other two results don’t really move the needle for Arsenal and with that would effectively end the title hope even if it was mathematically still possible.

The good thing for Arsenal is that they come into this match as slight favorites. My model has them just under 45% to win and that is a tiny bit more bullish than the betting markets where Arsenal are at about 41% to win right now.

Arsenal come in with an extra day of rest and are doing a bit better with injury and absences. The biggest miss for both teams is obviously Mohamad Salah (or at least if they aren’t they are playing some shady games) and that might be enough combined with the home-field advantage to close the edge between the teams.

Liverpool are a very good team and deserving of their spot at the top of the table. They have a very good attack, that looks to kill teams with volume and relentless waves of attack from their very deep pool of attackers.

This has seen them put up very good attacking numbers. How they go about it is a stark difference to Arsenal as well. Liverpool are one of the fastest and most direct teams in the Premier League (5th) this is doubly impressive considering where they are in the table and compared to their peers (Arsenal are 18th, City 20th).

They get the ball up the field quickly, they get the ball into the box a lot, and when they get into decent shooting locations they just let it fly. They have the 4th most touches within 25 yards of the goal they are attacking (Arsenal are 1st) but again they buck the trend generating the third most shots per touch in this area (Arsenal are 20th) and the 8th most xG per touch in this area.

On defense, it feels like what they do shouldn’t work but somehow they still have a stingy goal-suppressing team.

They are still a high-pressing team and are right there with Arsenal on the pressing metrics. The pressing is to a slightly different end but looks roughly the same on the metrics.

Their more back-and-forth style does lead to more shots allowed and a higher average shot quality but with a world-class keeper between the sticks it has turned into a team that has allowed the fewest goals this season.

In the first meeting, Arsenal didn’t create a ton against the defense but it was probably partially affected by scoring inside of the first 10 minutes and coming in feeling that a draw was a good result.

I thought that perhaps Arsenal fell into playing Liverpool’s game in that match, but that will often be the case when you are on the road against a good team.

In the return matchup in the FA Cup Arsenal played even better but came away with a worse result.

This match was one that I came away feeling pretty happy with, obviously getting knocked out of the cup sucked but Arsenal played Liverpool off the park for long stretches creating opening after opening but just failed to capitalize on that. I think if Arsenal played to this same level of dominance the chances of getting the result we want would be very high.

I am cautiously optimistic about Arsenal in this match but still filled with worry. There is a lot on the line here for Arsenal and I am not ready to have the Premier League season be on life support.

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Arsenal Transfer window recap

Well it was sure something that happened I think.

The signs were there to not expect a lot and it ended up exactly that. Arsenal looked like they are in a spot where the financial situation would limit what they could do and the overall market seemed to be gummed up.

Arsenal did have a few outgoings, with three hale end players leaving on permenant moves. This saw fullback Lino Sousa go to Aston Villa, midfielder Bradley Ibrahim join Hertha Berlin, and Miguel Azeez join Atletico Baleares (Spanish third division, yikes). I don’t have particularly strong opinions on any of these moves and none seemed especially close to impacting the team this season regardless.

There was an interesting comment from James Benge in the CBS Sports live deadline day blog:

Arsenal are not alone in taking this approach with their youngsters, Villa are another who take the view that endlessly loaning their prospects is not as shrewd a move as it was once viewed. All too often in the lower leagues of English and European football, managers under pressure for immediate results will trust in veterans with more competitive experience while clubs are often more reluctant than they initially seem to develop a player for another team.

Deals like Ibrahim's could be reflective of another step in youth development, particularly for those viewed as unlikely to get much further than the first team fringes. Hertha are altogether more motivated to develop the young midfielder now he is theirs, should he prove to be a success then Arsenal can profit on him and, if things go really well, get him back at the market price. If the alternative is talented footballers reaching 20 or 21 with little progress made in their careers, it may just be preferable.

This is an interesting and probably good shift. Loans for many players do seem to be very fickle and for every good one you seem to get one or two that end up with a player not getting the minutes you would hope for.

Another interesting twist that came out of this window, and points to another thing that we might see more is clauses like Chelsea’s loan of Armando Broja to Fulham where if he does not feature in at least half of Fulham’s matches they owe a penalty to Chelsea.

We might see more of both of these type strategies going forward.

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Round 23 Simulated Odds

Things start this week with an intriguing but ultimatley a match that I am not setting my alarm at 4:30 am for.

I will be interested to see how this one plays out, when I get up and maybe even catch the second half.

The 7am kickoffs aren’t the greatest but it should still be good enough to have on the goal rush to keep track of things.

The late match is another one that I am not sure is all that great but I am a glutton so I will still watch.

Sunday has the women playing in the early slot, so it is nice to not have an overlap with the men’s game. Hopefully that will make it so I can catch it and get back to the writing I would like to do for them.

In the Premier League there are three 6am kickoff’s and they look decent, hopefully with the ability to get some laughing at rivals in but probably direction my attention to Chelsea vs Wolves.

The late Sunday match is Arsenal vs Liverpool and I will nervously turn in.

The final match is a Monday night football special with Manchester City going to Brentford. Brentford did the double on City last year but I am not putting too many hopes that they will help us out here.

Maybe Ivan Toney has something to help the club he hopes to join.

Have a great weekend everyone, lots of Liverpool coverage coming up.