Arteta is right, Timing matters for a title

Going a bit deeper on a point that I don't fully understand as to why it is even a bit controversial to say.

“Winning trophies is about being in the right moment, in the right place. Liverpool have won the title with less points than we have in the last two seasons. With the points of the last two seasons, we would have two Premier League titles. So, you have to be in the right moment, in the right place.”

This was Mikel Arteta in his press conference before the second leg of the PSG match after being asked about if he is under pressure to deliver trophies.

A little bit surprisingly this caused a bit of blow back against the manager, but I am a little bit surprised about this. Perhaps I shouldn't, because it is often the case over the last 18 months that even banal, clearly true things, end up sounding controversial and made into a story.

This has just been the case for Arteta for a while, and it does seem that the media has picked up that other teams dislike him so they can snip and spin things that he says to stir up rage and drive clicks. It is a bummer, but it is also unfortunately the modern media landscape.

I posted something in the same vein yesterday after Liverpool lost to Brighton, showing that overall, this season, Liverpool have not been a significantly different or better team than the one that finished in third place last season, comparing the results this season to last so that each team corresponds to the team they faced last season.

• Points: +1 (83 vs 82)

• xG: -5.6 (79.9 vs 85.5)

• Goals: -1 (85 vs 86)

• xGA: -7.1 (36.8 vs 43.9)

• Goals A: 0.0 (40 vs 40)

• xG Dif: +1.5 (43.1 vs 41.6)

• Goal Dif: -1 (45 vs 46)

The only analysis I included was “Arteta got pelters for saying timing matters for titles, but it is true.”

I have deleted the posts on twitter and bluesky because of the nature of the platform they aren’t a spot for analysis and decided to write a bit more about it here.

This response overall surprised me because I thought it was again a pretty milquetoast point and one that is obviously true given that the points needed to win the title is not the same every season. I got push back from Liverpool fans which surprised me given that they have been some of the most recent and most heartbreaking examples of teams that were among the best in the history of the Premier League winning points that would have won the title most seasons but fell short to team’s a bit better than them.

Looking at Liverpool this season they will finish somewhere between 83 and 86 points this season.

The 13 previous seasons had points totals of 91, 89, 93, 86, 99, 98, 100, 93, 81, 87, 86, 89, and 89. Liverpool’s points total will be ranked tied for 11th or 13th just beating out Leicester City’s title in 2015-16.

I understand the rebuttal that this isn’t totally fair because teams that have clinched the title often will go into “DGAF” mode and will be figuratively on the beach where they don’t have the same motivation to suffer and win points at the end.

Here is what the last few titles look like at the time that the title was clinched.

Liverpool move from a team towards the bottom of this list to a team that is in the middle of it. They would rank 8th of the 14 teams for the points pace.

This reinforces the point that is being made here, timing matters. There would be plenty of times over the last decade and half that they would play like this and still have potentially come up short and not won a title.

It almost feels that much of this response and push back is tied to a bit of insecurity about how they view the title.

I want to be clear, I don’t write this to denigrate their accomplishment, they have been by far the most consistent and highest performing team in the League this season. They didn’t fluke the title and they shouldn’t have any insecurities about this at all.

How the other teams perform in a season is not something that a team can control and taking advantage of it is good.

Arsenal this season are also beneficiaries of this, they are going to finish second place with one of the lowest points totals in a long time, in fact there are seasons where this points total doesn’t even guarantee finishing in the Champions League spots. Manchester United and Tottenham are on the bubble of where teams have been relegated or at least in much more danger of it happening, in the past but the teams below them stunk and they are safe.

Liverpool last season were a very good team but they didn’t get the same breaks and ended up falling short, this team has been roughly the same quality and has gotten a few more breaks and the teams that beat them last year had things go against them.

Timing matters in sports and that is one of the things that makes it great.