Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal: The Debrief

A disappointing loss

Losing is never fun.

Losing to your former coach is even worse.

Losing to drop from the top of the table is just the last little bit to twist the knife.

It really sucks but for this match I don’t think there is that much doom and gloom that needs come out from it. Maybe it is just how I am taking it but I am not too down on things after this match, certainly not as much I expected to if Arsenal didn’t get a point here.

Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal: The Graphics

Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal: The Debrief

12 - Shots for Arsenal, tied for the fewest they have taken in a match this season

1.5 - Expected Goals for Arsenal, 11th most just a bit off the average for the season of 1.8.

4 - Big Chances for Arsenal in this match, Saka 6’ Martinelli 36’ Saliba 57’ and Odegaard 58’

3 - Shots on target, tied for 12th most this season

10 - Shots allowed, holding Aston Villa to the second-lowest total of the season and lowest at home this year.

0.7 - Expected goals for Aston Villa, tied for the lowest total of the season

0 - Big chances

15 - Touches in the box, Aston Villa’s lowest total of the season

3 - Dribbles completed, Aston Villa’s lowest total of the season, this one surprised me with the threat that they have with Bailey and Diaby.

On balance, this looks like an okay attacking output combined with another solid defensive day. Arsenal even cleaned things up and didn’t gift the opposing team with an error leading to a shot in this match.

-0.5 - The difference between Arsenal’s expected goals and the post-shot expected goals for the shots on target in this match.

10 - The number of times this season that Arsenal have had their post shot xG below xG

This is a match where finishing let Arsenal down in a big way. The chances were there for Arsenal but the final action was just off. Arsenal beat the high line several times but just could not put the ball into the net. Getting into the final third wasn’t always easy with the high line and mid-block that Aston Villa used to compress the space.

137 - The number of touches in the final third, the fewest Arsenal have had in a match this season.

Arsenal did take his and turn it into chances at a high rate however, it felt like the ball through the last line was always available to the midfielders. Like many times when Unai Emery coached Arseanl, it felt like the pressure on the ball with that high line was lacking and presenting chances there to be taken.

35 - Touches in the box, right on for an average match for Arsenal which is 34.5

12 - Touches within 15 yards of the goal.

This isn’t the most “unlucky” or biggest match of the season where the balance of chances didn’t match the result but it was certainly one where I didn’t come away thinking that Arsenal were outplayed (I think they mostly played well) and deserved the outcome.

Most days Arsenal get something from this match when they play like this. Sometimes the margins go against you.

Sliding Doors

In a game of fine margins, nothing illustrates that more than the sequence for the Asont Villa goal and the sequence before for Arsenal.

Arsenal pressed well, with Ben White intercepting the ball to win the ball high and set things off. Bukayo Saka plays a nice switch to Gabriel Martinelli, who returns the ball back to Saka who had ghosted behind to the back post. He can’t quite make the contact he wants with his weaker foot but it was perhaps Arsenal’s clearest chance of the night.

From the subsequent goal kick, Ason Villa play out smoothly working the ball into the Arsenal half, from there they play a very nice sequence of one-touch passes and a third-man run from Leon Bailey who started the move. He drives into the box and does the patented Unai Emery cut back and John McGinn spins and finishes perfectly.

It is easy to want to try and find blame in a goal allowed but I am not sure this is one where there is a mistake to really pin on anyone.

Oleksandr Zinchenko is perhaps overzealous at moving infield to pressure Youri Tielemans but the alternative was him being on the edge of the final third running at the back line unpressured, so that isn’t exactly an ideal choice either.

Tielemans has a great first touch and then releases the ball for Bailey before anyone can recover.

Bailey is then picked up by Gabriel Magalhães who rotates out to cover the space, this is not unusual and Magalhães is normally a very strong defender in these situations. Here he looks nervous and retreats too much. One of the decisions that is made here that probably doesn’t need to be is Declan Rice leaving McGinn to make a triple team on Bailey. Zinchenko has hustled back and is providing support to Magalhães and between them should be able to make the ball into the box hard.

This has the knock-on effect of it being 2 on 2 in the box with Ben White stepping forward to cover McGinn. With Rice is still in front of the pass, he has a good chance of cutting out the cut back instead it gets into McGinn, White can’t change his momentum fast enough to close down the space and he turns nicely and scores.

Could Arsenal have defended this better? Absolutley.

Was it a massive error by any one player? No, I don’t think so.

I think that this was very high-level execution by a very good team. If Arsenal scored this goal, I don’t think we would be thinking that the team took advantage of bad defending but rather the passing and movement were on point to do the hardest thing in this sport, score a goal.

Front Five Fail to Deliver

9 - Shots for the starting front five, with just 3 of those on target

1.1 - Expected Goals for the starting front five

3 - Big Chances for the starting front five

6 - Key passes for the starting front five

0.96 - Expected goals assisted with key passes for the starting front five

11 - Passes completed into the box for the starting front five

0 - Goals

0 - Assists

In a game like this you look to the big players to make the difference in games like this and here they came up just short. I don’t know if any of the players played bad per see but they all seemed to come up short to the expectations (except Kai Havertz who looked like he continued his upturn in form and could have had a late equalizer had it not been for an accidental handball).