Aston Villa Preview

Arsenal go to Villa Park to take on their old manager

Arsenal have a massive match this weekend going against… Aston Villa and Unai Emery.

Yep, I am reading that right.

This will be number 1 traveling to face number 3 in a huge top-of-the-table clash. If you went back and told 2019 me this was happening I would not have believed you.

All kidding aside, the evidence suggests that Emery is a very good manager, perhaps one that needs a certain type of club to fit but that isn’t unusual or unexpected. The job that he came into at Arsenal was basically all downside. The late Arsene Wenger years were spent chasing one last glory and trying to keep up with the top 4 that was becoming the top 6.

Looking at the squad it is clear now in hindsight that it was in serious need of a rebuild to reset after the Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil window had closed.

Looking at that team, it has talented players in it but it would hard to say that any of them were at their best ever level (maybe Aubameyang) and there wasn’t young talent ready to take over.

Emery ended up in the wrong team, at a time of transition from a legendary coach to something new, with a power struggle in the spots above him. He also played some dour soccer with tactics that frustrated the hell out of fans. He shouldn’t be hated, but I don’t think we should look back at that time with rose-colored glasses and wonder what if.

Arsenal are in an excellent spot, Unai Emery has found a team that works for him and is doing well (just how well lets check out next), lets all just be happy and say thank you with Arsenal taking 3 points this weekend.

How Good are Aston Villa?

By the metrics Aston Villa have been a strong team. There spot in the table is a bit fortunate (3rd in points, 5th in goal difference, 6th in xG difference) but they still look like a team that is performing well.

In attack they have the 4th best overall numbers, looking stronger than the Arsenal team they will have this weekend.

The defense isn’t quite as strong rating just 8th with the major flaw that they allow too many good chances, especially given that they are not an elite shot-suppression team.

The style of play at Villa doesn’t seem overly unique. It is possession-focused but not to the extreme. It is fairly direct looking to generate shots quickly and through vertical passing but this isn’t route 1 soccer.

Looking at the speed and their pressing they end up in the weird quadrant. They aren’t big pressers but they are also not really teams that play quickly towards goal.

This puts them in the old Arsenal category of the weirdness of a team that it is easy to complete passes against, but also one that has good technical players and will complete a lot of passes too.

The home and away splits

The big weirdness with Aston Villa is that they have massive home and away splits.

At Villa Park, they rate out as a very strong team, coming in as my third-best (above Arsenal at the Emirates, but below Liverpool and Newcastle) team at their home stadium.

This year they have romped at home, with 7 wins in 7 matches backed by a +19 goal difference (best in the Premier League) and +10.4 xG difference.

Insert home chart

Away from home they are a different story, with 11 points from 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses. Some of these have been big losses too ending up with a -5 goal difference and -3.1 expected goal difference.

insert away chart

This gives them the biggest overall split between their home rating and their away rating, with their home rating coming out as 3rd (their 154 rating would be in the title-winning range if it was their overall rating) and their away rating coming 12th (87 would be roughly equal to Fulham and Crystal Palace if it was their overall rating)

Any way you cut it, this is a big match for Arsenal. They are in the middle of what could be a make-or-break period for their title hopes as they come to the midpoint of the season.

Round 16 Odds

The games are coming thick and fast all December now.

The weekend starts with a match that I am not setting an alarm for. Crystal Palace have become the epitome of a mediocre team for me, they are better than the teams at the very bottom and still quite a bit worse than the teams at the top. I like Roy Hodgson but this feels like they are just trying to exist at this point. They are almost in the old Newcastle vortex of doing just enough to stay up and keep getting the Premier League money.

There is nothing with that, and they still have enough talent to play some good and tough matches just a mini-rant. Onward.

7am Kickoffs:

This is not the most appetizing group of matches the Premier League has ever served up. These could have big implications on the bottom of the table and it could also help Manchester United are back narrative.

The main match I care about Saturday:

I already wrote about it up top, Arsenal need a result here and a win would be huge.

Sunday

I am very intrigued by Everton vs Chelsea. These are two teams that have performed well but have not had the results match. They are still very flawed teams but they are both better than their spot in the table, Everton are 17th (thanks to the 10 point deduction) but should probably be solidly midtable, Chelsea are 10th but should probably be in the 6-7th range.

I like to look at the betting odds and get a sense of what the people who put their money behind their predictions think and they have Chelsea implied as the 4th best team going forward for the points total they are given. I am not sure I can go that far on them but I don’t think they are 10th that is for sure.

The weekend ends with a tasty matchup. It has been fun to see Tottenham crash down to earth after their hot and inflated start. It has been even funnier to see them drop points in each of their last 5 matches from winning positions.

In this run of matches, my simulation model predicted that they would win on average 7.3 points, the maximum in-game win probability for each of these matches where they were winning would have put them winning 10.7 points. That makes it even funnier that they came away with just 1 point and the 1 point they won was the best one for Arsenal.

Spursy.