Discover more from Cannon Stats
It was time to do the Predictotron on the Arsenal Vision Podcast and if you want to listen that is available here:
I do want to take a bit more about this too because I felt really optimistic when I was making my predictions here.
One of the big things for Arsenal's upcoming run is that they are favorites in 8 of their 10 matches, which puts the potential for a good point haul pretty high!
Arsenal are also under 50% to win in 5 of those 8 matches which really highlights that while Arsenal are the better team these aren't easy matches and dropped points are highly probable.
Arsenal are on 16.8 expected points for the remaining fixtures which would put them on 71 points and probably enough to make top 4. The scary part is that there is roughly a 60% chance that Arsenal finish with 70 points or less and the head to head matches against Manchester United (on short rest) and Spurs (also on short rest) will be incredibly high leverage matches.
I will finish this with looking at the points to get 4th place odds.
Points targets and odds to finish 4th or higher
67 - 28%
68 - 44%
69 - 56%
70 - 72%
71 - 85%
72 - 92%
73 - 97%
74 - 99%
75 - 100%