Back into the Pressure Cooker - Previewing the NLD
Arsenal are back from the international break with a North London Derby where the physios might be the Real MVPs
Arsenal return from an international break on the back of a 14-match unbeaten run. It was blemished with a gut punch draw before the break, but this run has seen Arsenal leapfrog their rivals to the top of the table and they have established themselves as title favorites.
Things on the white half of North London aren’t quite a rosy, the table position is decent with Spurs in 5th place, and it is a massive improvement from last season, but there are growing pains with the project and a swelling frustration with the style of play.
This is a match where which group of physios can get their team patched up best as both teams come in with lengthy lists of players on treatment table. Who is fit and available might be as important as the tactics.
Tottenham come into this match with the most players out with injuries and Arsenal right there with them at the top of the injury table.
This probably paints a bit of a pessimistic picture for both teams, the updates from both Frank and Arteta suggest that there have been a number of the players here back in training and with a chance at inclusion in this match.
This match will also potentially have a bit of more pressure applied with Manchester City playing Saturday and having the chance to close the gap temporarily to just a single point. I am sure that there will be lots of frayed nerves and worry but those feelings are part of why we love this game and keep coming back.
Let’s break it down.
Tottenham Performance
Thomas Frank came into this job in a tough situation.
The Ange Postecoglou era gave off real rocket flight energy: a real hot start as things got lift off, beauty and novelty as started to get going… but wait, why is it tumbling?… oh no… OH NO… KABOOM.
When you see a team with the revenues that Spurs have that far down the table it’s usually something weird and often bad luck that got you there. At the end of last season that was not the case, and it was truly a bad team that was earning their spot on the table with their performances.
Given that starting point, the improvement in the team is clear and they have bounced back from that relegation level.
Tottenham rank pretty solidly midtable in the metrics so far this season, ranking 6th in xG difference and 13th in goal difference. Neither the attack nor the defense looks particularly strong right now, with the team finding it’s self basically smack dab as average.
Looking at one my favorite and shorthand for getting a feel for teams, shows spurs basically at the intersection of average attack and average defense.
At this point of the season there isn’t much separating a bunch of these teams and while that means Arsenal are favored here, that doesn’t guarantee an easy match.
Tottenham’s Form
Spurs are in a period of mixed overall form; they started the season with three wins out of four and since then have won just twice in the last seven. They have only lost twice so they have been able to cling to the upper portion of the table sitting in 5th place.
I find that the sweet spot for looking at form is in the 8-11 matches range, it is decent enough sample size to where the stats can have real meaning and for most stretches it will give you a decent balance of opponents.
Looking at the last 8 matches played, Spurs are 3-3-2 with 12 points (1.5 ppm, 57-point pace) and they have scored 14 goals with 9 goals against. That’s probably not too far off of what you’d expect from them, solidly above average and borderline Europe type of points accumulation.
This however papers over that they have not exactly played well even though they have gotten a decent return of points.
The expected goals numbers would take the solidly above average goal numbers and flip that into the below average range. They have given up nearly two more expected goals than they have created and have not done a convincing job in many of the matches that they have won.
Breaking these down into the actual matches shows something that is probably a truth about this team. They have some individually talented players and that will get them wins that look a bit jammy and can even get you fairly big wins.
They are also a team that is in transition, and it is a squad that looks like less than the sum of their parts. That makes it tough for them to be consistent or to really go out and dominate in a tough league like the Premier League.
The last two matches help calm some of the worry that I have allowed to seep into my thinking about this match for some reason.
Their match against Chelsea was one of the most pathetic performances I have seen from a supposed top team in quite a long time. There really isn’t a good example that springs to mind for me to even use as an example, that’s how bad it was. They had three shots total, that was while trailing for the majority of the match and it seemed like Chelsea didn’t even need to do anything special to create good scoring chances against them.
The last match against United was one of the worst 70 to 80 minutes of this game that I have watched this season and I was cursing myself that I had woken up at 4:30 am (not that I set an alarm or anything, I just have a weird natural waking time) and witnessed it. They had a few more scoring chances in this match, but it was not a confidence building display for most of the match, the defending for the first goal was as bad as you’ll see from professionals. It ended at least with some nice entertainment and hilarity. Overall, it was not a match that you came away thinking “damn these are two good teams” and I think that is often the case when you are watching flawed teams play each other.
Style Comparison
Thomas Frank has come in at Tottenham and changed them from the high risk, sell out to attack style that they had under Postecoglou. Frank has brought a more pragmatic edge to Tottenham while trying to retain elements of what they had done previously.
They will still be comfortable having more possession, but this is a bit of where the squad building issues pop up in that in the pursuit of trying to address the defensive issues, they have sacrificed quite a bit of passing in midfield.
If they can get the ball to wingers in transition or isolated that is when they are the most effective, otherwise they can end up struggling to find ideas.
The attacking numbers are weird. Goals scored look good but the totals there are not reflective of the creation.
Nearly doubling up the xG has done a lot of work to push them up the table but it isn’t a good sign that they will continue to stay there.
On the defensive side of the ball, press can still be aggressive, but Frank has brought a more structured and made it more selective than under Postecoglou. They show up in the upper half for pressing metrics, but they have also incorporated a willingness to settle into their defensive shape.
The defensive numbers aren’t bad overall this season and that is a pretty big step forward from last season.
Final thoughts
It can be a little screwy coming out of an international break and the old truism of anything can happen in a derby echo around in my head here. On paper this is a match that should heavily favor Arsenal, and my simulation model plus the betting odds agree with that view, giving Arsenal heavy favorite status here.
I don’t know if it will be a straight-forward as this suggests, I have a lot of respect for Frank as a coach who can make a game tough. With the international break, he has had extra time to tweak things specifically for Arsenal, and I expect that he will have a few unique wrinkles to throw at Arteta and a plan to cause problems.
Add in that even if Arsenal do get back some players from injury, they will be potentially lacking in sharpness, and it all adds up to a tricky match. This won’t be a trap game, because I don’t believe that Arsenal will be looking past this match given the heat that comes with a rivalry.
This kicks off a tough run of matches for Arsenal that goes, Spurs, Bayern, and Chelsea over the next week. It will be a good test for Arsenal but hopefully we can start things off with a big win Sunday.